Derby Favorite

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

Agree Carpe Diem's connections and 7 fig price tag will make him a huge underlay. Obviously he can win and being that there will be so much money on so many hopeless horses I guess you will still see him around 6 or 7 to 1 and Upstart 12 to 15/1

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

My pick as of now too. Now if they only can teach him to run a straight line down the lane we are golden.