Santa Anita Showvivor

[Dunbar]

I'm finding the Showvivor races to be pretty interesting to follow.

ranger5830's lead over sgtennis has been cut to 12. But sgtennis is also in 3rd place in the "Most Wins" race, trailing the leader by just 3 wins. So sgtennis has a lot of incentive to make a pick every day, which should work to ranger's benefit.

Meanwhile, johnnyrotten, who finished in the 7-player Showvivor photo finish with me in 2012, is just 1 behind the leader in the "Most Places" category.

--Dunbar

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm finding the Showvivor races to be pretty interesting to follow.

ranger5830's lead over sgtennis has been cut to 12. But sgtennis is also in 3rd place in the "Most Wins" race, trailing the leader by just 3 wins. So sgtennis has a lot of incentive to make a pick every day, which should work to ranger's benefit.

Meanwhile, johnnyrotten, who finished in the 7-player Showvivor photo finish with me in 2012, is just 1 behind the leader in the "Most Places" category.

--Dunbar

As a result of yesterdays cancellation, wonder who's happy and who's not..

[ranger5830]

Why was it cancelled? I noticed that the pick I made was not on my list of picks and that they didn't update the leaderboard, but I didn't know the whole contest day was cancelled.

I of course would like all the remaining days to be cancelled and have the contest end right now.

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Why was it cancelled? I noticed that the pick I made was not on my list of picks and that they didn't update the leaderboard, but I didn't know the whole contest day was cancelled.

I of course would like all the remaining days to be cancelled and have the contest end right now.

You should have received the email...they said they had a problem and some couldn't get picks in so they cancelled...GL on your quest, how many racing days left?..I'm still trying to catch an old friend with biggest win payoff, not much chance..

126 jimmybee 12 / 4 4 / 0 13 7 $176.20

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by bigrun

You should have received the email...they said they had a problem and some couldn't get picks in so they cancelled...GL on your quest, how many racing days left?..I'm still trying to catch an old friend with biggest win payoff, not much chance..

126 jimmybee 12 / 4 4 / 0 13 7 $176.20

By my count, still 50 racing days left (13 4-day weeks but no racing Thu-Fri Apr 23-24 for some reason.) Some of the top players got knocked off yesterday, including someone who had 26 in a row, but still really need the top pick of the day to fail sometime soon, I don't think the top pick has run out of the money since Appealing Tale back on 2/20.

I found the email that Santa Anita sent me, it had been sent to my junk mail folder and that was why I didn't see it, I thought they had just forgotten to update the leaderboard.

Your friend has a good chance, the tiebreak (as I'm sure he well knows) for highest win price is the longest show streak, and he's only one behind, and well clear of the other three tied players. So he has to play it straight and hope there are no $177-up winners. I'm right on his tail in 2645th place so watch out.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm finding the Showvivor races to be pretty interesting to follow.

ranger5830's lead over sgtennis has been cut to 12. But sgtennis is also in 3rd place in the "Most Wins" race, trailing the leader by just 3 wins. So sgtennis has a lot of incentive to make a pick every day, which should work to ranger's benefit.

sgtennis's relentless pursuit continues, and he/she is now just 6 show picks behind ranger5830's 43-in-a-row. sgtennis's last 9 picks have finished 1st, putting him in 2nd place in "Win Streak", but still 4 behind the leader who has a still active 13-in-a-row. And sgtennis is very much in contention in Most Wins, tied for 2nd just 3 back of the leader.

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

It has indeed been an interesting couple weeks, as sgtennis continues his relentless march toward the lead. By my count, he has now been correct in 51 of his last 52 picks, missing only with The Gomper on Jan 30. When I first saw the handle I thought it was Sgt. Ennis, however the sgtennis twitter handle is held by someone named Simon who is a "tennis consultant." Regardless, his performance has been excellent and he would be a worthy winner if it turned out that way, but obviously I am hopeful he stumbles sometime in the next six picks.

A week ago Thursday was the day I had been waiting for for sometime, as all but one of the top seven favorites finished off the board, including a 1/2 shot in a five-horse field. Going into that day, there were 31 players with a streak of 20 in a row, after that day there were only five. The top 3 players left were all people who didn't make a selection that day (including Sgtennis, much to my dismay.)

There are now only 42 racing days left (11 weeks but no racing April 23-24) which means that anyone who misses from now on will be mathematically eliminated. And there are only 10 people who have an active streak of 16 in a row or more, and only three with 26 or more. So there's still hope, but the next two weeks will be telling.

[Dunbar]

Still so interesting! sgtennis is 4 behind ranger, but has become extremely selective and has not made a pick in several days. He's basically giving up the chance he had to take home "Most Wins" in order to concentrate completely on the show streak.

btw, that's a nice new 10-race streak you're riding, ranger.

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

Thanks Dunbar.

You may have noticed that this streak kind of came out of nowhere, that's because on 4-18 I picked a horse in race 3 that was scratched, so they were supposed to give me the starting favorite (who won) but instead gave me the close second choice (who was off the board.) The favorite was the same odds (2.1-1) but had about $100 more bet to win. An email to Santa Anita did eventually clear this up and that's how I went from 1 to 9 in a row in one shot.

I can still mathematically improve on my 43 in a row if I don't miss for the rest of the meeting (after another successful pick today to get to 11) but my focus has shifted to trying to get the most places, that's where I feel I have the best shot (5 behind going into today) to be on top. If I fall further behind I will start going for the huge longshot highest payout category as the tiebreak is longest show streak, and that obviously works in my favor.

Today's top pick finished off the board so it will be interesting to see if sgtennis came out of hiding today and maybe picked that one. Anybody who misses from now on is mathematically eliminated from contention for the longest show streak.

[ranger5830]

For the first time since January 24, I am no longer in first place in the showvivor contest as sgtennis has finally caught me at 43 picks in a row. We are still tied but he has the tie-break with 2 more wins than me. After the next racing day, he will probably have sole possession of first place and will be virtually assured of winning since he has a 21 day lead over the next best active streak with only 28 days left.

While I am obviously disappointed to not win, I have learned alot if I ever find myself in a similar situation, mainly being able to skip a day if the races look too tough. So thanks again for the support and hopefully we can get it right if they have the same contest during the autumn meet.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

For the first time since January 24, I am no longer in first place in the showvivor contest as sgtennis has finally caught me at 43 picks in a row. We are still tied but he has the tie-break with 2 more wins than me. After the next racing day, he will probably have sole possession of first place and will be virtually assured of winning since he has a 21 day lead over the next best active streak with only 28 days left.

While I am obviously disappointed to not win, I have learned alot if I ever find myself in a similar situation, mainly being able to skip a day if the races look too tough. So thanks again for the support and hopefully we can get it right if they have the same contest during the autumn meet.

Your run was remarkable and I'm sorry you probably won't get any prize money for it. I found the competition gripping, even as a spectator, and want to be part of the next one.

Can you imagine the tension sgtennis must have been feeling after he got to about #38? He skipped so many days of racing. How about when he was one behind you at 42? It must have been really hard for him to pull the trigger on pick #43.

I hope he misses with #44 and you can race to the wire for the tiebreaker.

Congrats again on your own impressive streak.

--Dunbar