Santa Anita Showvivor

[ranger5830]

Thanks all for the kind words, I appreciate it very much.

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.

A friend at work who has been following along with me asked if I considered taking the day off Sunday, and the answer is no, I'm happy with the pick I made, it just didn't work out. I had a 2-1 shot that had a clear lead in a 6-horse field at Santa Anita, those will usually yield a good result, plus the horse fit the profile of horses that I have picked with great success, E-E/P horses in dirt sprints with an outside post. It just happened this one didn't wasn't successful.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Thanks all for the kind words, I appreciate it very much.

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.

A friend at work who has been following along with me asked if I considered taking the day off Sunday, and the answer is no, I'm happy with the pick I made, it just didn't work out. I had a 2-1 shot that had a clear lead in a 6-horse field at Santa Anita, those will usually yield a good result, plus the horse fit the profile of horses that I have picked with great success, E-E/P horses in dirt sprints with an outside post. It just happened this one didn't wasn't successful.

That was an amazing run. Congrats!

I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.

That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That was an amazing run. Congrats!

I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.

That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!

--Dunbar

I was hoping you would show up in here, as DTs only actual Showvivor winner, I was anxious for your feedback.

Obviously I agree that you have to play favorites in order to get any kind of streak going, as so far I have picked 26 winners and the longest priced one is only $5.20, so it's not like I'm looking for longshots, or even decent priced contenders, to use. I think the longest priced horse so far has been either 7-2 or 4-1, and that was mainly at the beginning when I didn't take it as seriously.

I went back and looked at the thread where you won, great job btw, and the primary difference between us is how important you view field size to be. To me, if there's a 3-5 shot in a 10 horse field, where half the field is 20-1 or higher and is just going to struggle at the back of the pack anyway, that horse is as likely to come in as a 3-5 shot in a 5 or 6 horse field, where the other contenders are generally more evenly matched, plus the horse in the short field is likely to draw far more picks.

I think I have a good shot too, basically need one more "sure thing" horse to miss, and then it's a tall mountain to get to 43 with only 60 days left.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I was hoping you would show up in here, as DTs only actual Showvivor winner, I was anxious for your feedback.

Obviously I agree that you have to play favorites in order to get any kind of streak going, as so far I have picked 26 winners and the longest priced one is only $5.20, so it's not like I'm looking for longshots, or even decent priced contenders, to use. I think the longest priced horse so far has been either 7-2 or 4-1, and that was mainly at the beginning when I didn't take it as seriously.

My comment was limited to the situation you found yourself in when you were making your final pick, about which you wrote:

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.

If by "good alternative" you meant "just as likely to show", then I agree with your reasoning. But if you meant "almost as likely to show", then I think it was a mistake for someone in the position you were in, namely with a lead.

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I went back and looked at the thread where you won, great job btw, and the primary difference between us is how important you view field size to be. To me, if there's a 3-5 shot in a 10 horse field, where half the field is 20-1 or higher and is just going to struggle at the back of the pack anyway, that horse is as likely to come in as a 3-5 shot in a 5 or 6 horse field, where the other contenders are generally more evenly matched, plus the horse in the short field is likely to draw far more picks.

It may be true that a 3-5 horse in a 5 or 6 horse field has the same chance to win as a 3-5 horse in a 10-horse field, but I would be surprised if it doesn't have a better chance to show. So many more things can go wrong in a 10-horse field. And even if something goes wrong in a 5-horse field, finishing ahead of just 2 other horses is easier than finishing ahead of 7 other horses. I'll admit, though, that I don't have data to support that contention.

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I think I have a good shot too, basically need one more "sure thing" horse to miss, and then it's a tall mountain to get to 43 with only 60 days left.

I was trying to get a handle on your chances. What do you think is a reasonable figure for the chance the best bet of the day is successful? 90%? 85%? 80%?

I wouldn't be surprised (despite no data in front of me to support it!) if big favs in 6-horse races finish in the money 90% of the time. If those chasing you on the leaderboard can find enough 90% horses, then at least one of them is likely to catch you.

If they can only find horses with an average 85% chance to show, then you're a solid fave to win the tournament. And if they only have an average 80% chance to show on each of their picks, then you're a shoo-in.

Anyway, good luck!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Looks like you picked up another win, ranger? You're trailing "sgtennis" by just 2, 30-28, in "most wins". That's a cool position to be in, because it puts pressure on him/her to keep picking. And he's your biggest threat in the show streak, at 27-in-a-row. He can't be too choosy (skip days) in his show picks if he wants to hang on to his lead in wins.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Looks like you picked up another win, ranger? You're trailing "sgtennis" by just 2, 30-28, in "most wins".

Oops, didn't realize that there are 3 players ahead of sgtennis's 30 wins.

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

I was going to post that but couldn't get the one wifi hotspot in town to work earlier, so waited until I got home.

Anyway, of course I have been watching my lead dwindle, but still have a 16 day lead. Races have been very formful lately at least as far as the top pick of the day finishing in the top 3. For whatever reason sgtennis didn't make a pick yesterday, which I suspect is good news for me because the big favorite of the day won easily. I truly think (and have for some time) that he is the top threat to beat me, as he has made a successful pick in 41 of his last 42 picks, only missing with The Gomper on Jan. 30, or at least that is what I suspect.

Still only 5 behind the leader in the wins contest so I will keep playing it straight and try to get that, plus I could still get to 58 in a row on the show streak if I run the table from here on out (yeah, right.)