Blind Luck

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I would disagree as you know. On dirt, Z's total lack of early speed is going to be a detriment on dirt. Blind Luck, while a similar style, is able to maintain closer contact in my opinion on dirt. That very attribute is what caused her to lose a few times on rubber.

You can pretend the surfaces are the same all you want, it just isn't so.

I don't think that BL maintains any closer contact in her races than Z does. What both can do, that Biofuel, another poly runner with a similar style can't, or, at least, hasn't shown the ability to do so up to this point, is run without needing 'escorts'. Biofuel got terrible trips in her two races against DMC, as she had to do all her own running. She was able to win over the weekend at WO because others ran before she did and she picked up the pieces -- albeit with a very nice late run.

But not being 'escorted' is pretty much never a problem on dirt in races with a reasonably large field, on a fair track, which the Classic will be. Z has 2 races on dirt, both with good setups, and both HUGE wipeouts. BL's best race (in terms of figures and visual impressiveness) was a similarly well setup wipeout. Once again, IMO, BL, while very impressive, hasn't shown the kind of late kick that Z exhibits, nor the ability to overcome 'as difficult' setups. In other words, Z needs to be 'escorted' significantly less than BL. Z just pushes a bigger gear --- bigger than any horse out there. She'd bury BL if they were to come home together.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

OMG

Fact. Not just because R2R retired early either. This horse is something special. Particularly at a mile and a quarter.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I firmly believe that the 1-2 finishers from the Acorn a couple of years ago, Zaftig and a smartly ridden Indian Blessing, would have absolutely slaughtered Blind Luck at any distance up to 9f.

Rags would have beaten her from any distance ranging from 6f to 20f.

Proud Spell would have handled BL as well.

Blind Luck, to me, is much like an Octave, just in a really weak year.

I think this will turn out to be wrong. Time will tell though.
Her final quarter on Saturday was fast enough to believe she has something going on. Still young, give her some time.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What's interesting to me about these internet head-to-head discussions, and I'm not specifically saying you did it here, is that horses are pitted against one another and the one from yesteryear is used solely based on one, maybe two races. How else has Candy Ride become such an internet all-time great sensation?

There's also a big difference between Blind Luck and Octave. Blind Luck knows how to win.

NT

Of course I did it here. Zaftig only ran about what, six times maybe?

That being said, she was a better horse than Blind Luck, based on her ability level and how fast she was. She smoked Indian Blessing, who ran much faster than Blind Luck has, many times.

Every race from Candy Ride was spectacular.

As for Octave. I think her and Blind Luck are about even, but definitely Blind Luck is a gamer horse.

Though who knows what Octave would have done in this crop.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Fact. Not just because R2R retired early either. This horse is something special. Particularly at a mile and a quarter.

Do you really believe Blind Luck could beat, let alone be competitive with, a Curlin type of horse?

[10 pnt move up]

BL is a nice little horse but she would get drummed by both RA and Zenyatta.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Of course I did it here. Zaftig only ran about what, six times maybe?

That being said, she was a better horse than Blind Luck, based on her ability level and how fast she was. She smoked Indian Blessing, who ran much faster than Blind Luck has, many times.

Every race from Candy Ride was spectacular.

As for Octave. I think her and Blind Luck are about even, but definitely Blind Luck is a gamer horse.

Though who knows what Octave would have done in this crop.

You need to review Octave's PPs...badly.

She was a complete mediocrity who feasted on the dregs left from a crop that had one good horse and a lot of unspectacular horses. Evening Jewel is a better horse than any horse Octave ever miraculously got by.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You need to review Octave's PPs...badly.

She was a complete mediocrity who feasted on the dregs left from a crop that had one good horse and a lot of unspectacular horses. Evening Jewel was a better horse than any horse Octave ever miraculously got by.

NT

I agree with him, yea BL wins more.... She is slow IMO.
Octave and her have very similar speed figures/final times.
Evening Jewel is better then BL IMO, and needs another chance to prove it.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Do you really believe Blind Luck could beat, let alone be competitive with, a Curlin type of horse?

Maybe...maybe

With 5 weeks rest and it being his 3rd start in that same time period after being all out to win against Street Sense three weeks earlier. It would be possible for her to compete. She is game as hell.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You need to review Octave's PPs...badly.

She was a complete mediocrity who feasted on the dregs left from a crop that had one good horse and a lot of unspectacular horses. Evening Jewel is a better horse than any horse Octave ever miraculously got by.

NT

This is true, with the exception of her race in the 07 Distaff, which, chartwise, is very similar to (probably better than) BL's Oaks. I mean, I also thought Octave was about as big an opportunistic plug as there ever was. Then I just looked at her charts and found the BC race. yikes

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is true, with the exception of her race in the 07 Distaff, which, chartwise, is very similar to (probably better than) BL's Oaks. I mean, I also thought Octave was about as big an opportunistic plug as there ever was. Then I just looked at her charts and found the BC race. yikes

So you think Gomez choking her back 9000 lengths last was a poor decision in that race?

I'm still stewing about that one.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is why I can't talk to you.

LOL..I love that.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I agree with him, yea BL wins more.... She is slow IMO.
Octave and her have very similar speed figures/final times.
Evening Jewel is better then BL IMO, and needs another chance to prove it.

Evening Jewel should have been beaten Saturday, and BL would run her ass down again (especially when given 9f, or more to get her.) If she got to her (late) with bone nose up, then Rosario will easily get there with her...... E.J. Tucka.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Comparing Blind Luck to Rags to Riches is pretty silly.

Winning a couple of photo finishes over Harv De Grace .. doesn't exactly compare to utterly dismantling the useful Octave and High Heels - and than beating Curlin, Hard Spun, and Tiago - the 1-2 finishers in that years BC Classic - and Tiago was the top North American finisher in one of the two pathetic joke of a BC Classic held on pro-ride.

Blind Luck had no shot with R2R.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Zaftig is another horse I wish didn't have such a short career. She could've been a real beast.

Hystericalady was sensational in winning the Hollywood Oaks as a 3yo by a pole in 2006. Got a career best 110 Beyer in the win - but than she got hurt in her next race.

When she came back the following year she got back to form quickly. I remember posting this in an older thread.



Hystericalady was a classic "what could have been" horse - if she never got hurt as a 3yo and synthetic tracks were never invented.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Comparing Blind Luck to Rags to Riches is pretty silly.

Winning a couple of photo finishes over Harv De Grace .. doesn't exactly compare to utterly dismantling the useful Octave and High Heels - and than beating Curlin, Hard Spun, and Tiago - the 1-2 finishers in that years BC Classic - and Tiago was the top North American finisher in one of the two pathetic joke of a BC Classic held on pro-ride.

Blind Luck had no shot with R2R.

And don't forget that even though she didn't win the Gazelle, she did beat Tough Tiz's Sis in that race....and that apparently means quite a lot to some racing fans.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by miraja2

And don't forget that even though she didn't win the Gazelle, she did beat Tough Tiz's Sis in that race....and that apparently means quite a lot to some racing fans.

TTS, is that the Baffert that came to NY and freaked out? A 114 beyer or something?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

And don't forget that even though she didn't win the Gazelle, she did beat Tough Tiz's Sis in that race....and that apparently means quite a lot to some racing fans.

That race means nothing. Her performance was too far below her prior form to take seriously.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

TTS, is that the Baffert that came to NY and freaked out? A 114 beyer or something?

I don't remember the speed figure, but she did run pretty big in a Belmont stake on a sloppy track. I don't remember which race it was, but she won by a wide margin.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

TTS, is that the Baffert that came to NY and freaked out? A 114 beyer or something?

Tough Tiz's Sis was a total dog biscuit plucked from Hawthorne who stunk her whole career - other than one time when she freaked in the mud and the effort - according to Mr. Jerry Brown - ruined her career and caused her to get injured and never race again.