National Presidential Election contest thread

[Calzone Lord]

There is no way either one can win without winning the state of Ohio.

If the poll numbers right now can be trusted -- the winner of this election will probably be decided by the weather in Cleveland on election day.

Obama defeated McCain by 206,000 votes in Ohio in 2008.

Obama was +246,000 votes over McCain in Cuyahoga County. He was minus 40,000 to McCain in the state of Ohio with Cuyahoga County excluded.

In Ohio's District 11 (East Cleveland) -- Obama won almost 90% of the vote.

If the polls are accurate -- the state of Ohio will be won by the voter turnout in the big population areas around Cleveland.

If the weather is miserable in Cleveland on election day -- Obama will not get a monster turnout there like he did last year. Romney wins.

If the weather is clear in Cleveland on election day -- Obama will defeat Romney in Ohio and win the state and re-election.

Bottom line...if the polls are trusted and don't change... the weather in and around Cleveland on election day will be a deciding factor as to who wins the state of Ohio. And whoever wins Ohio, obviously wins the Presidency.