6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

So your argument is that horses that run in the Belmont Stakes can also win the Travers if they ran in the Kentucky Derby.
But....
If they didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, then running in the Belmont would ruin their chances of winning the Travers?

Nope.

That doesn't make any sense to me.

The point not literally spelled out with my comment was that Alternation is, relatively speaking, "behind" those other horses (with the possible exception of Summer Bird) in terms of seasoning, particularly in the graded stakes ranks.

Personally I don't think the horse is a particularly likely winner of either the Belmont or the Travers, but I don't see how running in this race would negatively affect his chances to win the Travers.

I wasn't really trying to comment on his ability to win the Travers. I was merely playing Devil's Advocate with regards to skipping the Belmont.