Interesting Info That Affects Your Derby Pick?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

I have been thinking about a comment i believe Mike Welsh made on ATR about Ice Box. He said he was "all out" to beat Pleasant Prince in FL Derby. I went back and watched the race again, and the horse never changed lead's, could that have made it look like he was all out to win? Was in fact his close in that race alot better than it looked, because he didn't switch lead's? I hope i am making sense here? Lord knows Mike Welsh has forgotten more about watching a horse, than I will ever know.It just made me wonder if Ice Box's FL Derby may have been a better run, than it may be getting credit for?

He was on his wrong lead the whole stretch. If Zito can get that worked out... watch out.

[Arletta]

Listening to Steve rave about Paddy O' Prado has lead me to consider putting him on a few of my tickets.

[herkhorse]

I heard that Beautician has looked like crap all week, so I'm going to wheel her in the Oaks-Derby double.

[Rudeboyelvis]

I can't possibly see Sidney's Candy, as much as I like him, winning this from the 20 hole... This may well be a field of rats, but he is no Big Brown.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Listening to Steve rave about Paddy O' Prado has lead me to consider putting him on a few of my tickets.

I was wondering about that fast workout in the slop on 4/23. I will have to dig out what Steve said.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

He was on his wrong lead the whole stretch. If Zito can get that worked out... watch out.

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

Not that I am on the Ice Box bandwagon, But Giacomo was a plug too and I won a lot of money on him.

Seems to be a good amount of front runners in here too. Front may have decent pace for the plug to run at.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

Getting a perfect setup, absolutely, is more important than being on the right lead.

Is he a plug, possibly. But basically this entire field is plugs- the favorite would have been 20-1 or 30-1 in a lot of Derbies. I don't know if this particular plug is good enough to win but I think he'll be grinding into the top 7 which means I'll be using him in exotics.

[Sightseek]

I never liked Ice Box until seeing his works at Churchill.

There are a couple horses who I though looked great working in the slop and being that this is such an evenly matched field, that may lean me towards them in my wagers.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

Is he a plug, possibly. But basically this entire field is plugs- the favorite would have been 20-1 or 30-1 in a lot of Derbies. I don't know if this particular plug is good enough to win but I think he'll be grinding into the top 7 which means I'll be using him in exotics.

Right. He's just one of a number of no talent bums that will be praying the race collapses completely. So, you, and others, will use him in a large # of exotic combos and, ultimately, hope to get 3-5:1 on your bet. Aren't there any number of simpler plays on Saturday (and any other full day of racing) that'll get you the same return?

Definitely not a method that works longterm.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Right. He's just one of a number of no talent bums that will be praying the race collapses completely. So, you, and others, will use him in a large # of exotic combos and, ultimately, hope to get 3-5:1 on your bet. Aren't there any number of simpler plays on Saturday (and any other full day of racing) that'll get you the same return?

Definitely not a method that works longterm.

I'm hoping to get 3-5:1? Try more like 30-50:1. If I wanted 3-5:1... I'd bet the 5th at Belmont tomorrow.

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by philcski

He was on his wrong lead the whole stretch. If Zito can get that worked out... watch out.

That's why i posed the question, if he closes like he did and can switch leads he could pass a few, and perhaps them all who knows. I wouldn't put it past Zito at all.

[philcski]

How 'bout that PLUG Ice Box. What a piece of ****.

****in horse is going to win the Belmont by 5.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by philcski

How 'bout that PLUG Ice Box. What a piece of ****.

****in horse is going to win the Belmont by 5.

I never understood why he didn't get more respect pre-derby. 3 more strides and the race may have been his. Makes you wonder who would have won if Borel rides the #2 given what he does at CD in Stakes routes.

[packerbacker7964]

Devil May Care may Kiss My Arse. Blinkers WTF was I thinking? Act also took alot of my picks that Super Saver should've been taking from me. I even told every at the track Borel is in the money alot at The Twin Spires meet. My wife had some to win the #4. I left him out, she keyed him over the wrong horses. She even had the 9 in her super box. Dam women. ha ha I was all over the 2 and 10 all week. Just didn't put the #4 ahead of them.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

How 'bout that PLUG Ice Box. What a piece of ****.

****in horse is going to win the Belmont by 5.

Def something going on there with the lead changing...what are your thoughts on this, Phil?