Dirty, Rotten Traitors at the Daily Beast

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Polls are only relevant and true if the Dem candidate has the lead. Otherwise they're false, misleading or a non-issue.

Hypocrisy to the bone.

I'm not sure about the polls in this case. All the betting sites still have Obama as about a -180 favorite. In general, I trust the betting sites more than the polls for the simple reason that these sites would lose millions of dollars if they didn't know how to make a good betting line. That being said, they're not going to be correct every time.

Before the debates, they thought Obama had around a 75-80% chance of winning. Right now they are giving Obama a 62% chance of winning. That seems a little high to me. My guess is that the race is very close. I would probably make Obama a slight favorite right now, maybe -120 or something like that. I think Romney has a reasonable chance to win.

If anyone ever wants to check the exchange wagering lines to see what percentage chance they think each guy has of winning, here is the link:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/