3yo recap and updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A wasted week with three ultra sub-par Derby preps. The Sunland Derby and Spiral both featured pace meltdowns. The former won by a hopeless horse - the latter won by a synthetic specialist.

The Louisiana Derby at least had a few animals resembling racehorses in it - but it was a false-run race - riding tactics dictated the outcome.

The no-ability and no early speed Lion Drive set a slow pace for a long while in the LA Derby:



Thanks to setting fractions slower than both a MSW dirt route for 3yo fillies - and an N1X dirt route for 3yo males - he was able to carry the lead for more than six furlongs.

It was a virtual merry-go-round behind Lion Drive - the horses who raced 2nd, 3rd, and 4th made up an improbable cold trifecta:



36/1 2nd place finisher Nehro - always very close to the pace - benefited greatly from his connections allowing him to show more early speed.




While the exacta combo of Pants on Fire-Nehro only paid $459 - or almost 230/1 odds - keep in mind that Pants on Fire was the publicly lesser regarded part of a coupled entry ... he would have certainly been 20/1+ if uncoupled.


Calvin Borel singlehandedly lost the race for Elite Alex by taking him back again. And Machen - a very fast sprinter by Distorted Humor out of a More Than Ready mare - once again had to attempt the role of deep closer, with a wide move, into a slow pace. Perhaps Neil Howard's main goal with him is some 4.5 mile endurance race somewhere. Machen was once again Sway Away flat with those same tactics.

Updated Derby Chances:

Uncle Mo (27%)
The Factor (10%)
Premier Pegasus (7.5%)
To Honor And Serve (7.5%)
Soldat (7%)
Dialed In (6.75%)
Silver Medallion (4.25%)
Mucho Macho Man (3%)
Jaycito (3%)
Flashpoint (2.25%)
Stay Thirsty (2%)
Santiva (2%)
Elite Alex (1.75%)
Mr. Commons (1.75%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Archarcharch (1.25%)
Gourmet Dinner (1%)
Anthony's Cross (1%)
Astrology (0.84%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Sway Away (0.50%)
Pants on Fire (0.40%)
Animal Kingdom (0.40%)
JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%)
Bretheren (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.20%)

The Rest: (6%)