Jerry Brown on Maclean's Music

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I had the track changing, didn't give him as fast a figure, I'm going to be reviewing that race for a while, given how lightly raced the horses were. But has anybody stopped to think about the figures the rest of that field (especially first 5) are going to get if you believe the Beyer?

And, much more fun-- since Ragozin claims tracks don't change speed, and since he has California sprints about 2 points fast, I can't wait to see what they do with that race. I think if they stay true to what they have been doing he has to get as fast as Ghostzapper's best figure as an older horse

intellectual honesty (by Ragozin) requires either making a 3yo first timer into Ghostzapper, or giving out a lot of slow numbers.

Basically, when Brown says "I had the track changing" ... in this instance - it's pretty obvious he had it changing on multiple occasions.

People like Justin Dew (I'm going to be kind and pretend like he knows a little bit about this subject) love to call out Beyer for occasionally cutting a race loose - or splitting a variant.

However, Thoro-Graph makes a habit of doing this extremely often.

The Ragozin's, on the other hand, just about never do unless the weather changes or the track is sealed. The Beyer's are basically somewhere in the middle .. but closer to Ragozin than TG I would say.

Here's something I posted earlier:

If race #1 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 111

If race #2 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 112

If race #6 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 113

if race #9 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 106

if race #10 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 116

Basically - my opinion on what Thoro-Graph is clearly saying here ... The track was consistant for races #1 through #7 ... It suddenly got faster for races #8 (Maclean's Music's race) and #9 ... and suddenly slowed down sharply 30 minutes later for race #10. That is what they mean by "we had the track changing" I would expect the TG # to come back equal to about a 106 Beyer with a 1w or 2w trip.

I'm not being crtical of Brown - though I personally have never been a big believer in that concept of a racetrack changing speeds sharply - IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS - throughout the course of a day.

I'm not being critical of Ragozin either - but his unwilllingness to fool with variants or to cut a race loose because of pace ... leaves some horses with some pretty wild looking sheets.

And obviously - I disagree with Beyer's decisions sometimes as well.