American Pharoah... what's next for our new Champion? (The Haskell)

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pointman

I am one that does believe in speed figures, but I believe in a realistic manner. They are never the be all and end all on handicapping a horse. There are other factors to take into account, in particular whether a horse is likely to increase or decrease off a certain speed figure in a particular scenario and whether the figure is likely to be accurate under the particular circumstances, trip, dynamics, etc. I find it interesting that the 105 that Beyer has assigned and the 128 that Craig has is likely to much more accurate due to a 1 1/2 mile race being run earlier in the card.

Having said that, I don't have handy the fractions of Smarty Jones' Belmont but I am pretty certain it went much faster than AP's did early on and taking factors overall, particularly the dynamics that Smarty faced in the Belmont versus AP on Saturday, I believe that Smarty ran a better race. I also think that AP has a lot of room for improvement off what he has run thus far but only time will tell if the connections are true that he will continue racing.

But at the end of the day, I think if the Breeder's Cup were one month from today, Shared Belief would easily beat AP right now. A race or two down the line and improvement by AP by November might change my opinion, but I believe the evidence we have right now supports that conclusion.

it's not like I have a low opinion on shared belief, but if the bc was in a month,sb would likely still be recuperating in Washington.

I still don't know how good AP is, as he is still improving, while winning easily, except for the derby, where I've felt all along he was either short or had an off day.

The odds of it happening are highly unlikely, but a bcc featuring sb, AP and possibly kentuckian would be freaking awesome. I'd be completely at a loss as to who would win. Throw honor code into the mix and that would be the most exciting race in ages.

As to the result of the Brooklyn, to quote my favorite star trek line, irrelevant, irrelevant, irrelevant!

I get what you are saying about that, but number zealots should learn to use and trust their senses, especially their vision.

Can't these people see that when he runs his normal race, other horses that try to run with or to him get run off their feet?

It's incomprehensible to me how anyone can't see the improvement from each leg of the triple crown to the next. His derby, on paper, was better than his Preakness? That is an absurdity of biblical proportions. His Belmont barely better than his Preakness? The Beyer clan needs to retire, that opinion being so so bad.

It's as if a lightly raced young horse racing himself into top shape cannot improve from one race to another? Is that the implication?

Smarty ran an awesome race indeed. It was Herculean in effort. The thing is though, was that he ran as good a race as was possible. Pharoah? He could have been asked even earlier and his win would have been even more dramatic. He toyed with his opponents in a manner similar to what fupeg did to the deputy at Santa Anita. They both schooled their foes and could have won more impressively.

Therefore, I'd say AP was more impressive of the two.