ALL w/ ALL ??

[clambeau]

What are the chances with this wacky Derby that the exacta will pay 1K or more on a $400 investment?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by clambeau

What are the chances with this wacky Derby that the exacta will pay 1K or more on a $400 investment?

Poor

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Poor

Disagree. I think there's a good chance it does.

[ateamstupid]

It's actually a $380 investment, and I think there's at least a 50% chance of you showing a profit.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's actually a $380 investment, and I think there's at least a 50% chance of you showing a profit.

For a 1$ bet. 20X19X1

760 for a 2....Pass

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

For a 1$ bet. 20X19X1

760 for a 2....Pass

you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?

[MaTH716]

I'm thinking over a grand as well.

[slotdirt]

I don't know if the risk is worth the reward. Or something.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by philcski

Disagree. I think there's a good chance it does.

I think most of the lower priced horses will run their races minus SC so its not for me.

[kgar311]

What about all/all with the Oaks-Derby double, that's only a $280 investment and all you need is Blind Luck to get beat. That could be a huge payoff

[robfla]

Originally Posted by kgar311

What about all/all with the Oaks-Derby double, that's only a $280 investment and all you need is Blind Luck to get beat. That could be a huge payoff

$280 is for a buck. The DD would have to pay $560 to just break even... there are some throwouts

[EpBurns]

Im betting All/1,2/1,2 in the derby triple a nice little $36 investment!

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What about using only 3 in the Oaks... And really crushing it.

then the 2 longest shots on the board would win, its just my luck

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by clambeau

What are the chances with this wacky Derby that the exacta will pay 1K or more on a $400 investment?

What chance do you give of Lookin At Lucky running either first or second?

[ateamstupid]

I never quite understood wheeling horses underneath only. Especially in a 20-horse field, how do you determine that certain horses are good enough to run second, but not win?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I never quite understood wheeling horses underneath only. Especially in a 20-horse field, how do you determine that certain horses are good enough to run second, but not win?

I agree.

[tector]

For your $380 you get (a) some money back, no matter what and (b) the joy of being able to say "I HIT THE EXACTA IN THE DERBY!"

Seriously, IF someone were to try this, you'd want to play a little bit more than $380. You'd want a few bucks to cover the chalkier combos for more than a dollar. Strategically, if you are serious about using this bet as a cornerstone of your Derby betting, you need to spend about another (I'd guess) $50-$75 in "get me closer to even exactas" should the chalk roll in. I'd guess at about $450 total, your maximum downside could probably be limited to $200-$250, while your upside could be a few thousand. It is the relative likelihood of each of those outcomes, in your mind, that governs doing something like this.

You'd like to have an idea of the price on the projected chalkiest exacta, first, before undertaking such a thing. And, of course, you have to be somewhat solidly against the chalk hitting the top two slots.

I've seen crazier bets (cue for IC to talk about Matt's trfecta boxes....)

[Thunder Gulch]

Some of the guys in my group have been doing this for years and have made out very well. If you go back to the beginning of the 20 seperate entries, you would have a huge roi. It also works for the Belmont over the last 10 + years with all of the triple crown failures, horses such as Lemon Drop Kid, Commendable, Sarava, and Datara, and a smaller investment...don't get cute to save a few bucks. If I had done a 15x15 box, I would have missed some of the biggest scores.

[philcski]

I've decided I'd buy the tri if I could afford to (I can't.) I think the expected value is over $3,420 for .$50 based on how evenly matched the field is.

[booner]

So let me ask this.....with Lookin' At Lucky and Sidney's Candy getting unfavorable post positions, does it add more value to this wager?