A weird trend I've noticed....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

With the Tiz Wonderful news...I'll bring this up

To my knowledge---not a single horse who's ever won his debut at Saratoga or Del Mar has ever went on to capture an eclipse for champion 3-year-old male the following season.

Pretty incredible stuff--when you consider how high profile the resort meets are--how deep the 2-year-old MSW races are every year--and the fact that the champion 3-year-old male award has been handed out for 70 straight years!


Every year this decade---with an exception to 2004--there has been one incredible debut winning performance by a 2-year-old, at Saratoga.


* 2000: Macho Uno: Bet to 3-to-5 favortisim, he wins his debut in hand on opening day. It was a sensational performance visually, and it was also the MUCH faster of split divisions. 86 Beyer.

Afterwards: He wins 2 Grade 1's and is beaten a neck in another in his only three other starts at age two. A BC Juvie victory over dual-classic winner Point Given and Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry earn him a 2yo championship. He missed the triple crown with soundess issues..and was never an elite horse there-after.

* 2001: Mayakovsky: Bet off-the-board, and wins the much faster of split MSW heats on opening day...defeating Thunderello in track record time.

Afterwards: he ran 2nd to Came Home and earned a 104 Beyer in the Hopeful next out. Got hurt. Was never a serious horse again.

* 2002: Sky Mesa: Wins his debut by 8 lengths with a giant 92 Beyer.

Afterwards: He wears down Discreet Cat's older brother, and wins the Grade 1 Hopeful with a 103 Beyer next out. He gets hurt and isn't much horse there after.

* 2003: Birdstone: Wins his debut by 12 1/2 lengths with an incredible 99 Beyer. He expolded home, getting the last 1/4 in 24 2/5ths, and the last eight in 12 1/5, on a track that wasn't yielding real fast times.

Afterwards: He won the Champagne in career start #3, and took the Belmont Stakes and Travers at age 3. No championship though.

2004: No amazing debut victories. A couple of pretty decent ones turned in by English Channell, Proud Accolade, and Closing Argument however.

2005: Discreet Cat: In what was an all-time great debut performance, Discreet Cat ran a 106 Beyer on the Travers undercard. (On AFT) He ran faster than Lost in the Fog did in the King's Bishop, much faster than fellow 2-year-olds First Samurai, Henny Hughes, and Too Much Bling did in the Hopeful. As well as running as fast, as Flower Alley did in his Travers victory over Bellamy Road and Roman Ruler. The final quarter of Discreet Cat's win was in 23 and change. Only the 2004 Sanford Stakes, won by future Belmont winner Afleet Alex, featured a come-home time as fast...in a Saratoga 2yo race this decade. DC's 106 Beyer was just 6 points off of Formal Gold's 112 for fastest ever. FG's 112 came as a 3-year-old.

Afterwards: In Dubai: He wiped the floor with American horse of the year Invasor. Also burying the massively hyped 8-for-8 on dirt Simpatico Bribon, and previously undefeated star Gold For Sale. In America: He's romped everytime. Including a win in the Cigar Mile in Dr. Fager like time.

2006: Tiz Wonderful wins his debut by double digit. Runs MUCH faster than the other division, which I believe was won by an Ernie P./Klanfar horse whos name Durkin butchered.

Afterwards: Two more big wins and he's toast.

Del Mar's had some excellent debut winning 2-year-olds as well...including champions Vindication and Declan's Moon over the last couple years.

While this simple feat hasn't been accomplished--it's not like there haven't been many capable horses with a chance to do it over the last 70 years. In fact, if a horse like Discreet Cat can't even do it--who exactly can?