A Bit About Track Bias (Dirt)

A week or so ago there was a thread asking what a float was and how/why is it used? With apologies to the few veterans who will find this redundant, I thought i would expand on that topic.

I guess it was Davidowitz in his epic tome "Betting Thoroughbreds" who first wrote that if you did not take into consideration track surface, profits would not be attainable. In the three decades since, many have opined a variety of theories, concepts and conclusions about track bias, all having at least a modicum of acceptance, but none refuting his tenet. One has to look no further than ten weeks ago when the Breeders Cup was ran at Churchill Downs and many handicappers thought (incorrectly) that an inside bias existed. True the rail horse won four times, but the only bias that day, occurred in the Classic, but that is another story.

I should state that I am no expert in agronomy, but can empirically contribute that a basic understanding of track maintenance can lead a handicapper to the right horse, at the right price.

Dirt, dirt and more dirt aside the maintenance of a race track is hard work! As an example of a track, take your hands, put them straight so that the fingertips touch and the fingers of each hand are parallel. Then slowly push them together. Bring your hands to eye level noticing the tips of the fingers stick up higher than the knuckles. This, is very primitive and quite exaggerated, but nevertheless mimics the shape of a race track. All tracks are crowned in the center, as are all football fields! Why? To promote drainage from rainfall.

To shorten this post, if that's possible, let's assume that it is the end of May, at Churchill Downs, mid-morning and the first rain in a week or so is imminent. Further assume the track is in perfect shape, and a soft rain starts falling at noon. Track superintendent Butch Lehr will be monitoring the surface carefully and at some point will "float" the track. A float, is a weighted piece of steel probably some ten feet across. It is attached by chain, to a tractor and dragged across the racing surface. Most weigh a couple of tons and cost some $10,000. The purpose; to compress the three-inch top layer (cushion) and the underlying three-inch base*. Why? So the rain runs off to the sides (remember the track is cambered) and not be absorbed into the surface itself. The track will stay compressed or "sealed" until the rain subsides, which may take a day or two. How should cappers play a sealed track? Cautiously. Cappers know most horses detest the surface as they bring some 5,000 pounds per square inch at impact and it is almost certainly uneven to them, appears a mirror and the bottom is hard to detect. Jockeys have even more disdain but that is another matter. If pressed, or I had to play, I would downgrade the chances of both the inside and the outside horses, give horses that have won on a sealed surface extra scrutiny and play horses being bet.

As the track dries out, the water on the crown drains off and eventually evaporates. At this point the track is being harrowed (raked) with the intent to get the surface back to normal or fair! The inside or rail, may still have standing water while the outside is muddy. The best traction is the rail and cappers should look there, all else being equal.

Perhaps a race or two later, the sun comes out and the crown begins to dry while the rail is now muddy... huge advantage outside! How long does it last? A card or two at the longest. Then the track super wants to return the track to a fair (unbiased) surface. Some of the topsoil (dirt) or "cushion" has gravitated from the crown, towards the rail and needs to be moved back to the crown. Bring on the scraper blade and move the top layer of dirt from the rail to the crown... big advantage inside horses.

This circular process occurs at all tracks, poly excluded, and yields some predictable performances at outstanding odds. Be aware tracks listed as: fast, slow, muddy, good etc. are sometimes contested on a sealed track. A hybrid agronomist/handicapper would want to know the moisture content, particle size and organic makeup and would probably excel at picking winners!!

In conclusion, track surfaces are quirky and unique. The Fairgrounds features a long, long stretch, while cross state Delta Downs is often regarded as a bullring with a stretch half as long. Most cappers do not realize that the Delta stretch is WIDER than the Fairgrounds!

Both Belmont and Churchill can get extremely rapid, the former from rain, the latter from humidity. It is mostly due to the sand and clay content respectively. In fact, Churchill will often add as much as twenty thousand gallons of water EACH day!

Lastly sorry for the length. On the turf the bias is much more pronounced and much more difficult to discern. BBB



*There is much more to track composition but most tracks have a surface of 3" cushion then 3" base.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think I will let DrugS handle this, but....


1 ) the rail was golden on BC Day. What posts winning horses had is irrelevent. What is relevent is the performance a number of horses put in while racing on the rail. If someone wants to believe otherwise I hope it is also someone betting more than $35 a week.

2 ) While I am no expert, by any means, in the makeup of racing surfaces, I have spent way too much of my life studying races and discovering possible biases on racing strips. While I think tracks are far more even these days than " the days of old ", there are biases, though probably fewer than many believe. I also think many people confuse outside flow with dead rails and these are two VERY different things with seeming similarities.

3 ) I believe that turf courses very rarely possess a strong bias ( as long as they don't get rock hard ) and the VAST majority of races run on the turf are strictly a function of pace and trip.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I am going to run my hands through some dirt.

[westcoastinvader]

Good post bellsbendboy. A nice categorization of things I have seen for years, but never really attached the significance for wagering leverage.

I don't have much supporting data, but I do know the turf at Del Mar this past August was a subject of at least minor controversy because of the movement of the rail from day to day.

I happened to be there for some Q & A with Jerry Hollendorfer in a trackside pre-card chat on the 2nd Saturday in August, and he mentioned some lament over the turf rail placement for the day.

I ended up catching A.P Warrior nicely at over 5-1 in the La Jolla Handicap that weekend.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

A week or so ago there was a thread asking what a float was and how/why is it used? With apologies to the few veterans who will find this redundant, I thought i would expand on that topic.

The track will stay compressed or "sealed" until the rain subsides, which may take a day or two. How should cappers play a sealed track? Cautiously. Cappers know most horses detest the surface as they bring some 5,000 pounds per square inch at impact and it is almost certainly uneven to them, appears a mirror and the bottom is hard to detect. Jockeys have even more disdain but that is another matter. If pressed, or I had to play, I would downgrade the chances of both the inside and the outside horses, give horses that have won on a sealed surface extra scrutiny and play horses being bet.

That was me who started that topic and I thank you for such a well-expained post on the subject. Although I'm one of those $35 a week bettors I still care a lot about becoming a better handicapper and increasing my knowledge of the game and that really helped.

Is there any way from looking at the PP's which horses had won on a sealed surface?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is there any way from looking at the PP's which horses had won on a sealed surface?

DRF stated including a little " s " by the track condition for a sealed track...but that only started recently. There is no listing for cumulative sealed track performances.

I never meant to knock anyone who bets small amounts, and never would, but someone who claims to make significant five figure annual profits while also claiming to bet roughly $35 a week, as the author of this thread did, is a different story.

Not all given information is good information.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

DRF stated including a little " s " by the track condition for a sealed track...but that only started recently. There is no listing for cumulative sealed track performances.

I never meant to knock anyone who bets small amounts, and never would, but someone who claims to make significant five figure annual profits while also claiming to bet roughly $35 a week, as the author of this thread did, is a different story.

Not all given information is good information.

Thanks, and I will look for little the little "s" in the future!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is there any way from looking at the PP's which horses had won on a sealed surface?

DRF PPs... no; they're not complete. Charts ... yes.

It's always useful to have a folder file of charts for the track(s) you follow. A couple minutes of time is all it takes to download and store them and there's really no substitute.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

DRF PPs... no; they're not complete. Charts ... yes.

It's always useful to have a folder file of charts for the track(s) you follow. A couple minutes of time is all it takes to download and store them and there's really no substitute.

I started saving the weekend Forms, but doing it this way and daily probably would be a good idea, thanks.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

The thing that was the best about Friendly Island (not to rehash the bias thing, cuz it's pretty beat to death) was how Eric Wing posted about loving Friendly Island on about three different occasions on the ntra.com homepage in the month leading to the BC. He laid out a really compelling (for lack of a better word) argument about why Friendly Island was going to be a HUGE overlay bomber in that race, based on his performances.

I didn't believe it, because obviously the horse was having a hard time getting a win anywhere, but I can't say that the man was talking like a crazy person either beforehand. Usually when people get lucky on something like that, i think of it just that way -- lucky. But Wing had been so adamant and so logical in laying it out, that I wasn't totally shocked that the horse ran a big one.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

1) He didn't debut until a couple weeks before the Mike Lee (and won the 6F NYB championship at 3 anyways... over several graded stakes placed horses)
2) He's a graded stakes winner at 6F in 2006
3) He ran 2nd to Bordanaro in the spring by a length at 6F, and Bordanaro was the 2nd choice in the BC Sprint
4) He missed 2nd in the Forego to War Front by a long nose, and War Front was a top 5 choice in the BC Sprint

Yeah... Friendly Island is total garbage.

He was the biggest overlay in the race.

I am confused on how a turf course has a strong bias. Turf racing seems to be less biaed that dirt.