1/6: Gulfstream Park

[Scav]

This card is HARD. Fact is that if you like a horse and that horse runs well, you should get paid, especially in the 5th race. You could easily see a couple of these horses on the Derby Trail.

Race 3

#3 West to Durango (12/1ML): W2D looks like a horse that wanted nothing to do with the Poly. Has been working up a storm on Gulfstream's actual surface (not a PMM shipper). While Pitts' numbers off this type of layoff aren't particular strong, that might help the number on this horse. Those works, plus the all important jump from a 3yr to a 4yr spells PLAY ME.

Race 5

This is one hell of a race, I can find about 7 horses that I could argue. That being said, the two horses that I will be talking about #2 Green Secret and #6 Touch a Prince.

#2 Green Secret(5/1ML) is a KMc trainee that brings a typical MSW win 1st out work pattern for a STRONG 1st out trainer. Darley homebred could make some noise on 'da Trail'

#6 Touch a Prince (10/1ML) is a hunch play for me. Last year, their was an article talking about how Bobby Frankel can not be named as the trainer for PMM trainee, some Florida rule about something. Whatever the fact, rest assure that Frankel is the actual trainer of those horse and last year a few horses sunk in under Lynch's name to run really well (I think On Board Again was one of them at like 15/1 in an MSW race). Besides all that, this horse has been working well and gets Kent D.

Race 7

#3 Blazing Pursuit (20/1ML): Man do I think this horse is going to run HUGE tomorrow. Given the expected pace scenario and the great clock that Javy has in his melon, you are going to be looking at a horse that is gonna come a flying at the end and make things awful interesting. Besides that commentary, BP loves GP with 2 wins in 4 starts, and some great works since getting down to Palm Meadows. While Toner doesn't excel with layoffs, hard to ignore 15/1 or better on this horse.

[cal828]

Sorry, I didn't see your post or I would have posted here also.

[golfer]

Just finished going through the Thoro-sheets for this and I couldn't agree more, this is TOUGH.

1st: 1, Truer than True.. was going to play him last week at Calder, only thing not to like is Vet scratch and probable favorite.. 4 Mostly.. 0-2-X in last with trouble (Steve?)

2nd: Very contentious race, maybe the 8 Gold Reserve, lightly raced and shortening up.

3rd: 5 Robbies Charm ran huge # at GP last year, 3rd off layoff for this... likely favorite 7 Bedford Falls looks solid

4th: Anyone of these are fast enough to win... have been chasing 2 Sinkwich... 8 Jabbok coming off 2 consecutive tops, nice spacing

5th: 3 Laser, coming off big debut # and getting Lasix

6th: 2 Optimist Girl, fastest coming in (but not by much), off a bit of a layoff

7th: another one where all are fast enough, 1 & 4, High Finance and Hither Lane are best prices (other than Scav's Blazing Pursuit)

8th: 6 Classic Campaign, loved him in last when he missed the break, right back hopefully at a price

9th: VERY DIFFICULT, all button?

10th: 2 Hatch, only 4 starts in last 2 years, but fits...7 Cresson is very solid..
Question for Steve, or anyone, 9 Lycurgus, previous turf #'s are slow, but he woke up with 2 good ones on the dirt, then a big bounce.. what to make of him back on turf (and a big price)?

[Bogey]

Gulfstream Park - SAT

Race 5 - MSW 44K

#11 Huffman - McPeek trainee by Came Home showed some speed in his last at CD before tiring and will use that experience to get it done versus some quality 1sters.

PK4 -

Leg 1 - Race 7 - G3 Mr Prospector

#5 Paradise Dancer - Didn't care for the slop in the G3 Kenny Noe across town and prior to that he earned a 104 and 106 BSF which should get it done here. Castro jumps off Weigelia to ride for the en fuego young Ziadie. (SCR)

#1 High Finance - Burned some money as the odds on favorite in last, but the West Point runner adds the hood for this affair and is training smartly.

#8 Kelly's Landing - 5 wide in BC Sprint cost him any chance and prior to that he defeated a nice field in the G3 Phoenix at KEE. He ran a huge race in March '06 at GP off a layoff.

Leg 2 - Race 8 - Ft. Lauderdale

#2 Ballast (Ire) - Motion turfer captured the G3 Trop Turf in his last. That might have been his breakthrough performance.

#10 Old Dodge (Brz) - Johnny V will be aboard for the stretchout and last 4 of last 5 he's gone over the century mark BSF.

#7 Dreadnaught - Hasn't won since Nov '05, but has kept stiff competition. He finds an easier spot with this bunch.

#6 Classic Campaign - Stumbled at the break in the Trop Turf and should be a nice value play right back.

#1 Gin and Sin - 7yr old gelding was 4th in last yr's running and should benefit with having Desormeaux in the irons. I predicted that Kent will have a strong meet at GP, especially on the lawn where he does his best work.

#9 Interpatation - Excels on the Gulfstream lawn with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 starts.

Leg 3 - G3 Hals Hope

#9 Sir Greeley - Loves the distance and making important 3rd start off a layoff. Training well for the Giant Killer.

#5 Chatain - Wildcard in the race has an enormous amount of talent and could easily put it on display in his event.


Leg 4 - Race 10

#7 Cresson (GB) - Failed as the favorite versus similar at BEL in October, but is training steadily at Payson Park for strong turf trainer Clement.

#11 Everything to Gain - 8yr old gelding has earned over $387K and should have enough in the tank to get it done here.

PK4 - 1 8 with 1 2 6 7 9 10 with 5 9 with 7 11 = $48 for a buck play

Aqueduct - Race 8 - Count Fleet

#7 Summer Doldrums
#5 No Reply
#3 Sir Whimsey
#6 Believeinmenow

The Play - Tri Key and Tri P/W keying the #7 1st and 2nd with the 3 5 6.

Good Racing Luck

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

1st: 1, Truer than True.. was going to play him last week at Calder, only thing not to like is Vet scratch and probable favorite.. 4 Mostly.. 0-2-X in last with trouble (Steve?)

Let me jump in for Steve here. Are you predicting that TTT will move back 2 points in this start and then X in his following start? If so, and it happens, you should make a boatload of money. If he only moves back 2 points in this race, he wins easily, and if he were to come back in 20-30 days, he would, in theory, be a great throwout in that following start.

I think in TTT's instance you can essentially 'toss' that race at Keeneland as a poly experience, and that he wanted nothing to do with it.

But, given his sheet as it reads, he is not currently in the 0-2=x pattern

[AeWingnut]

my head is swimmin after looking at these

Race 3

I like #1 Alpen Horn if I can get a price
#3 West To Durango trained by Helen Pitts
#5 Robbie Charm should win

Race 4

#7 Nar should win but he doesn't seem to run back all that often
going with value bets on #1 Blinded Quest & #6 Changing Weather

Box 1-6-7 in both the tri and exactas

Race 5

Bullets galore on #10 Speedball Howie but will the post hurt? I doubt it
#6 Touch A Prince has that Canadian angle going for him but.. Touch Gold doesn't impress me. Key The favorite #3 Laser

Box 3-6-10

Race 6

the 6 horse in the 6th race
Key 6 w/ 1-5-8-9-11 and worry about the 15?

Race 7

anyone like #2 Mach Ride?

boxing 2-5-8

Race 9

4-7-8-13

good luck
you'll need it

[golfer]

Scav, I just re-read your question.. I changed horses on you. Mostly is the horse that just 0-2-x'd.

No, Scav, what I'm referring to is that he has already 0-2-x'd... his last three races are 6 (top) 8, and then a troubled 15 (after being off 2 months). The way I see 0-2-x, is that now he is eligible to get back to the 0, which is his top of 6. When I see a horse with a top, and then a 2 pt backward move, I will predict an X, with varying results (I haven't actually kept track of this). The value of the next race after the x is potentially longer odds.

[SentToStud]

Race_____horse_________
1 Scr.#3 Judith's Symphony
1 Scr.#5 Chiquihuite
1 Scr.#7 Last Shake
2 Scr.#1 Insolente
3 Scr.#8 Liger
5 Scr.#1 Jodi's Star
6 Scr.#13 Lights Out Angel
6 Scr.#14 Possible Mambo
6 Scr.#15 Royal Regan
7 Scr.#5 Paradise Dancer
8 Scr.#12 Prince Alphie
9 Scr.#10 Ecclesiastic
9 Scr.#11 Big Lover
10 Scr. #4 Omaggio
10 Scr. #14 Western Missle

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

Scav, I just re-read your question.. I changed horses on you. Mostly is the horse that just 0-2-x'd.

No, Scav, what I'm referring to is that he has already 0-2-x'd... his last three races are 6 (top) 8, and then a troubled 15 (after being off 2 months). The way I see 0-2-x, is that now he is eligible to get back to the 0, which is his top of 6. When I see a horse with a top, and then a 2 pt backward move, I will predict an X, with varying results (I haven't actually kept track of this). The value of the next race after the x is potentially longer odds.

Yeha I just saw that, it was the first post I read on the day and my eyes were just opening. Agree about the odds BUT I think in this case if you look at the thoro-pattern, Mostly is only 15% to at least pair that 6.75, he will probably improve that 15 from last time, but not enough to win, IMO. The beauty of handicapping.

FOR ANYONE that is new to THOROGRAPH, Mostly in race 1, #4, is a PERFECT example, IMO, of the 0-2=x theory...PERFECT

[SniperSB23]

Mr Prospector
Kelly's Landing
Paradise Dancer
Weigelia
Slam Bammy
Mach Ride

Tough to distinguish between the top five which makes it a tough race to bet. Best strategy might be to play Kelly's Landing to be either on top or completely out of the tri. Paradise Dancer probably offers the most value in the win pool and Mach Ride could hit the board at a price.

Edit - Just saw Paradise Dancer scratched, now I really don't like this race. Will probably play Kelly's Landing and Weigelia in the top spot with Slam Bammy and Mach Ride underneath.

Ft Lauderdale
Old Dodge
Interpretation
Saint Stephen
Classic Campaign
Dreadnaught
Ballast

Another wide open one but I think this one offers more value than the Mr P. Really like Old Dodge at 4/1 and Interpretation at 12/1. Will play some exotics with those two in the top spot.

Hal's Hope
Sweetnorthernsaint
Sir Greeley
Rehoboth
Strong Pretender

Think this is Sweetnorthernsaint's race to lose. Sir Greeley has a shot if he runs huge third off the layoff at his optimal distance but might just not be good enough if SNS is on. Rehoboth or Strong Pretender figure to plod up for the tri.

[Unbridled]

Originally Posted by Scav

Race 5

This is one hell of a race, I can find about 7 horses that I could argue. That being said, the two horses that I will be talking about #2 Green Secret and #6 Touch a Prince.

#2 Green Secret(5/1ML) is a KMc trainee that brings a typical MSW win 1st out work pattern for a STRONG 1st out trainer. Darley homebred could make some noise on 'da Trail'

I like Green Secret as well, but I think he might end being better on the turf. If he doesnt run well on the dirt, look out for him on the turf.

[Sightseek]

Race 3
7 Bedford Falls
2 Blotto
6 Ultimate

Race 4
5 Lifestyle
1 Bridled Quest
7 Nar - Won

Race 5
11 Huffman
8 Baltic
7 Texas Billy Boy
7 Vamanos

Pick 3
7
5, 1, 7
11, 8, 4, 7.....ticket was a brutal failure, with only Nar

Race 6
6 Bless You
10 Dyna's Gold Legend
3 Diamond Spirit
Longshot bet #9 Motion stretch-out, blinkers off 20-1ML

Race 7
2 Mach Ride
6 Slam Bammy
8 Kelly's Landing - Won
4 Hither Lane
2/6,8,4
6/2,8,4

Race 8
2 Ballast
6 Classic Campaign - Won
10 Old Dodge

Race 9
3 Sweetnorthernsaint
9 Sir Greeley
5 Chatain - Won
6 Strong Contender

Race 10
7 Cresson
8 Grand
11 Everything to Gain - Won

Pick 4
2,6,8
2,6,10
3
7,8,11

[King Glorious]

I like Strong Contender with Chatain and Istan in the exacta and tri boxes. Forgot my boy Indy Wind.

Looking at Sweetnorthernsaint, I don't consider the two comeback races and the races before the Gotham. He was obviously the class of those races and could run how he wanted and still win. For a decent look at how he might fit with these, I looked at his four races against graded competition:

Gotham-Was 2 back of a half in 47 3/5 and was 1.5 back of 6f in 1:12 1/5. He was fairly close to the pace but never had the lead. Steadily made ground late but didn't win.

Illinois Derby-Was 1 back of a half in 48 and 1/2 back of 6f in 1:13 before exploding to win the race. Had a lot in the tank (why not after such slow fractions?)

Kentucky Derby-Was 3.5 back after a half in 46 and about the same back of 6f in 1:10 4/5. He ended up tiring badly and losing a lot of ground late.

Preakness-Was 1 back of a half in 46 3/5 and 1/2 back of 6f in 1:10 1/5. He ended up finishing second that day but he was five lengths further back at the finish than he was after 6f meaning he again lost a lot of ground.

My feeling is that when he's allowed to run on very easy paces, he does well. Let him run a 48 or so for the half and still be within a couple of lengths and he's dangerous. But if they go faster, he's in trouble. He's either got to run faster to keep his position, which takes away from his late punch, or he's got to drop back further and try to run down a lot of horses. I don't see him with a chance here today. The half is likely to be in the 45 3/5 to 46 range and there are a few horses that will be contesting it.

[SentToStud]

r 3

expect 6, Ultimate., to run well at 20-1 with 5 mtp

6 win

tri 6/257
257/6/257
and 257/257/6

[estreetposse]

race 3 pk 3
7
467
2-3 10 11
for $3


haven't got a solid run for a from a 6-5 like that in a while
good luck all


-bt-

[SentToStud]

r 4
I'm playing Jabbok here at a good price. He's run against and beaten some decent horses. No way should he be 18-1.

[Bogey]

Desormeaux with another beautiful ride on Beautiful Danielle. As I said before in the Gin and Sin comments, this guy will win at a high % on the GP Lawn.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Race 6

Longshot bet #9 Motion stretch-out, blinkers off 20-1ML

grrrrr! I thought she at least held on for 2nd!!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Desormeaux with another beautiful ride on Beautiful Danielle. As I said before in the Gin and Sin comments, this guy will win at a high % on the GP Lawn.

The one thing I like about Desormeaux is that he doesn't ride scared, he rides to win, he takes risk and I am cool with that fact. I agree about the GP lawn and Kent, 100%

Recap to come later, not at home right now....Looks like we were dead on with West to Durango and Green Secret as far as capping goes...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Race 9
3 Sweetnorthernsaint
9 Sir Greeley
5 Chatain
6 Strong Contender

Race 10
7 Cresson
8 Grand
11 Everything to Gain

Pick 4
2,6,8
2,6,10
3
7,8,11

dumb donkey ticket of the day goes to....me!