Breeders Cup races - discussion thread

JolyB · #1 Yesterday, 10:22 AM

The BC races are almost here. Post positions for all 14 races were drawn Monday evening, the linemaker has been working overtime, and the entries have been posted at Equibase (and probably lots of other places). It's time to fine tune our handicapping and look for that "hidden value" horse or horses that could make the weekend a wagering success.

I've started this thread for any of us to post any random thoughts or comments we might have about horses that we like or don't like or races that we think are particularly betable or complete mysteries.

Feel free to share.

DonGuido · #2 Yesterday, 10:46 AM

All having their best race, can Sovereignty be beat?! The answer is of course but how likely is it? And who's going to bet him at 6-5 odds?

JolyB · #3 Yesterday, 11:25 AM

I have to agree with the pundits that Sovereignty is the horse to beat and could well be a hall of fame type. But, I just don't see how one can justify a win bet at 6-5 or less odds. This field has as much talent assembled since the time that Secretariat worked out alone (credit to JFK for his comment that this is the most talent to assemble at the White House since the time that Thomas Jefferson dined alone lol). Each of them have reasons why they might be vulnerable, but each have races on their resume that could win this race. Sierra Leone needs for the pace to set up perfectly for him, but he has his own personal rabbit and is the defending BC Classic champion. Fierceness is notoriously inconsistent, but has flashed amazing talent. Forever Young has been largely ignored, but I can see him winning at a decent price. The favorite has not run against older horses, and this is the cream of the older generation. I would never leave Sovereignty off of a horizontal or vertical ticket, but don't see a win bet at 6-5 as anything but an underlay.

This added at 1:15 PM - just saw this article at DRF about Sovereignty spiking a fever. It would be a terrible disappointment if he didn't run, but I know Mr. Mott will do the right thing for his horse.

https://www.drf.com/news/breeders-cu...es-temperature

RUFFIAN · #4 Yesterday, 12:41 PM

Sovereignty Misses BC Classic

Trainer Bill Mott said there is a "possibility" Sovereignty will miss the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) after the colt registered a "mild fever" Oct. 27.

VIEW FULL STORY

RUFFIAN · #5 Yesterday, 12:50 PM

My Heart ♥️ Belongs To Fierceness ❣️

🙏❣️🙏 Hooe He Roars ❣️🏇❣️

DonGuido · #6 Yesterday, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RUFFIAN

Sovereignty Misses BC Classic

Trainer Bill Mott said there is a "possibility" Sovereignty will miss the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) after the colt registered a "mild fever" Oct. 27.

VIEW FULL STORY

That would be a bummer and certainly change the mix and strategy of the race.

JolyB · #7 Today, 10:32 AM

Yesterday's "possibility" that Sovereignty might scratch due to a fever has become a reality. The fever returned and Bill Mott made the announcement this morning. Such a shame, but undoubtedly the right call to make.

Real Quiet · #8 Today, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JolyB

Yesterday's "possibility" that Sovereignty might scratch due to a fever has become a reality. The fever returned and Bill Mott made the announcement this morning. Such a shame, but undoubtedly the right call to make.

Darn. Always at the worst time for the sport.

Indian Hemp · #9 Today, 12:59 PM

That takes a truly great field down a step but I don't think it alters anyone's game plans.