6/28: Churchill Downs (Stephen Foster Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Lost and Found debuted at 2 and is 2nd out today, but take note on 3yo first out runners from Will Walden (21% overall; 79%! ITM) who have won at 9/5, 8/5, 1/1 and 5/2 of late.. In other words, if they get bet, they win..

Best Value: #9 Lost and Found 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Speighter Woman 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Pretty in a Dress 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Spun Candy 9-2 WON ($16.38)


7th: Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-4+, 9f (Derby City 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Royal Spa 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Gin Gin 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Thorpedo Anna 3-5 WON ($2.70)


8th: Tepin, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Something Stronger 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Vixen 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lush Lips 9-5 WON ($5.24)
Super Add: #1 Fixin to Bee SCR


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

8: 1/SCR-2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 1-3-9/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)

Main: 3x2x2 = 12 x $3 = $36
Budget: 3x1x2 = 6 x $3 = $18 (8 only in 10th)


9th: Kelly's Landing (G3), 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Booth 2-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Dr. Venkman 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Happy Is a Choice 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Roll On Big Joe 3-1 WON ($11.90)


10th: Wise Dan (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mercante a (big) SCR after not coming out of work to Knippenberg's satisfaction..

Best Value: #8 Fort Washington 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Mi Hermano Ramon 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Lagynos 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Brilliant Berti 3-1 WON ($6.08)


P5 Grid:

6: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8 (A), 3 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-7 in 10th)


11th: Stephen Foster (G1), 4+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 FIRST MISSION 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sierra Leone 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Mindframe 7-2 WON ($5.76)
Super Add: #5 Mystik Dan 3-1 4th


12th: American Derby, 3yo, 8.5-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Reagan's Wit Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Tiztastic 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Minaret Station 15-1 WON ($7.44)
Exotics Use: #6 Native Runner 10-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

8: 2-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
12: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
12: 1-3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAACA): 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4 in 11th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

For better or worse, I’ll be singling #5 Lush Lips in the Tepin. Let’s cash some tickets today.

[casp0555]

looks like it will be the Jose Ortiz Day at The Downs....first 4 Ws

[moses]

Don’t be cheap guys.

I was between mindframe and first mission and decided to single first mission instead of just spending the extra $30. Cost me $1100.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Don’t be cheap guys.

I was between mindframe and first mission and decided to single first mission instead of just spending the extra $30. Cost me $1100.

Unrelated (but sort of related since I had Reagan’s Wit in my pick 5, which ended up as Tiztastic twice which I would have never done), it’s ridiculous that they didn’t announce the Reagan’s Wit scratch until so late given that the reason listed is to run in a Stakes race. That’s just a big FU to the bettors for how that played out.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Unrelated (but sort of related since I had Reagan’s Wit in my pick 5, which ended up as Tiztastic twice which I would have never done), it’s ridiculous that they didn’t announce the Reagan’s Wit scratch until so late given that the reason listed is to run in a Stakes race. That’s just a big FU to the bettors for how that played out.

Let's hold up on the phuck you to bettors.. It wasn't 'announced' late; Cherie SCR'D when she did ~ a STK SCR which can be done at any time ~ due to the degrading turf course condition after 2 thunderstorms.

What's annoying is the wager rules that give us post time faves in that circumstance. As has been discussed for ages, it past time to offer a SCR alternate within the wager format.