6/7: Belmont Stakes Racing Festival ~ 157th Belmont Day

Kasept · #1 06-06-2025, 08:17 PM

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL ~ 157TH BELMONT STAKES DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 6-5 4th/5th
Next Best: #2 Roswell 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Proud Foot 8-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Maggy's Palace 8-1 WON ($16.80)

2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Crazily deep MSW which features host of obviously talented late starters including 4yo's from Pletcher (Life and Times) and Chad as well as 2 firsters from Mott that cut out to be good ones (Copious out of Paradise Woods/$475k Stars and Strides)..

Most Likely: #4 Mainstream 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Copious 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Draft Riots 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Secured Lender 9-2 3rd

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-OFF (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Certified Loverboy 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Big Blue Line 10-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #14 Alternate Reality 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Magical Ways 15-1 4th

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Deep, perilous 2nd level OC/ALW and note that the 2 likeliest speed players are the only 2 runners in for the $75k tag. Hades comes back off a much needed 7 month break and Orseno is VERY strong off that kind of hiatus. Case could be made that Awesome Slew colt was only ever a one turn middle distance type and it feels like he'll be overlooked in here..

Best Value: #8 HADES 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 General Partner 7-2 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Into Pleasure 10-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Echo Again 10-1 3rd

5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Silver Slugger 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Rocketeer 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Aggelos the Great 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Rookie Card 6-1 7th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 12 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

2: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

6th: Wonder Again (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-OFF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Nitrogen WON ($2.80)

7th: True North (G3), 4+, 6.5f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Book'em Danno 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #4 Nakatomi 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Mullikin 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Concrete Glory 8-1 7th

2-day .20 All Dirt P6 Grid:

FR 6: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
FR 9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
SA 7: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 8: 1-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 1-2 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
SA 13: 2-6-7 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x4x4 = 768 x .20 = $153.60
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .20 = $28.80

8th: Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m ($5 Met-Belmont DBL, $1 P6, P3)

Best Value: #4 Just a Touch 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Fierceness 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Raging Torrent 5-1 WON ($18.00)

9th: Jaipur (G1), 3+, 5.5f-T (Must Pay P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Think Big 6-5
Best Value: #8 Alogon 10-1
Next Best: #9 Ag Bullet 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Arzak 8-1

2-day .50 All Turf P4 Grid:

FR 12: 8 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
FR 13: 1-2-3-8 (A), 9-10 (B), 5-7 (C)
SA 9: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 10: 1-5 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
SA 12: 2-3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 1x4x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
Backups (CAAAA + ACAAA): 1x4x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (1 in Leg A) + 1x2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16 (5-7 in Leg B)

10th: Pennine Ridge (G3), 3yo, 1m-OFF (Late P5, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Mi Bago 2nd
Next Best: #9 Noble Confessor 4th

11th: Woody Stephens (G1), 3yo, 7f ($5 Woody-Belmont DBL, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Big Truzz 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Patch Adams 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Madaket Road 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Citizen Bull 5-1 4th

12th: Manhattan (G1), 4+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Integration 9-2
Next Best: #6 Spirit of St Louis 5-2
Best Value: #4 Carson's Run 12-1
Exotics Use: #3 Highway Robber 6-1

13th: Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Journalism 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #Baeza 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Heart of Honor 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Sovereignty 2-1 WON ($7.00)

$2 Epsom Derby/Belmont Stakes DBL (10:30a)

EPS 5: 5-7-10-15 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 13: 6-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)

All A's: 4x2 = 8 x $6 = $48
Backup (A-C): 4x2 = 8 x $2 = $16

$2 Epsom/Belmont DBL (5-2) Paid $67.00

14th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-OFF

Best Value: #10 Equivoque 15-1 4th
Next Best: #16 Whittington Park 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 Top Gun Rocket 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Super Add: #15 Street Swagg 6-1 2nd

Let's get lucky!
Steve

Kasept · #2 06-07-2025, 05:10 AM

$2 Epsom Derby/Belmont Stakes DBL (10:30a)

EPS 5: 5-7-10-15 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 13: 6-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)

All A's: 4x2 = 8 x $6 = $48
Backup (A-C): 4x2 = 8 x $2 = $16

$2 Epsom/Belmont DBL (5-2) Paid $67.00

casp0555 · #3 06-07-2025, 05:56 AM

Weather Underground is estimating right at 1" of rain through 10A eastern
yucky morning, hopefully it will stop before noon,

atolunch · #4 06-07-2025, 10:01 AM

Steve,

Thanks as always for your time and insights!

Are you planning on posting any more verticals today? Looks like a sloppy mess out there.

Good luck!

Kasept · #5 06-07-2025, 10:32 AM

No. Pointless.

casp0555 · #6 06-07-2025, 10:41 AM

great

moses · #7 06-07-2025, 10:46 AM

If the Jaipur and Manhattan are canceled, how does that impact multi-race wagers?

Can we get a True North-Met Mile-Pennine Ridge-Woody Stephens-Belmont Pick 5?

Kasept · #8 06-07-2025, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

If the Jaipur and Manhattan are canceled, how does that impact multi-race wagers?

Can we get a True North-Met Mile-Pennine Ridge-Woody Stephens-Belmont Pick 5?

No

moses · #9 06-07-2025, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

If the Jaipur and Manhattan are canceled, how does that impact multi-race wagers?

Can we get a True North-Met Mile-Pennine Ridge-Woody Stephens-Belmont Pick 5?

So all the multi-race wagers with the Jaipur or Manhattan are canceled. The Manhattan is right before the Belmont so no doubles or pick 3-4-5 into the Belmont.

How is it possible in 2025 that they can’t adjust it so that every single day multi-race wager leading into the Belmont Stakes isn’t canceled? Seems simple enough and would never happen in the sports betting space.

Kasept · #10 06-07-2025, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

So all the multi-race wagers with the Jaipur or Manhattan are canceled. The Manhattan is right before the Belmont so no doubles or pick 3-4-5 into the Belmont.

Correct.

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

How is it possible in 2025 that they can’t adjust it so that every single day multi-race wager leading into the Belmont Stakes isn’t canceled? Seems simple enough and would never happen in the sports betting space.

Racing Commission rules.

Kasept · #11 06-07-2025, 11:23 AM

Revised schedule/betting menu. All big multis (P4/P5/P6) after P4 starting here in the 4th (R4-7) become unavailable due to the cancelled 9th and 11th. Rolling P3's starting in 4th (R4-6), 5th (R5-7) and 6th (R6-8) remain playable as are consecutive race DBL's (R10/11 & R13/14).

moses · #12 06-07-2025, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Correct.

Racing Commission rules.

That makes sense. It’s just frustrating to spend a time on a card to have it fall apart like this.

jms62 · #13 06-07-2025, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

That makes sense. It’s just frustrating to spend a time on a card to have it fall apart like this.

Irad put in No effort in the 5th race...

moses · #14 06-07-2025, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Irad put in No effort in the 5th race...

He must have known I needed him to finish off my pick 4 and keep my pick 5 going. Hated the favorite there but just didn’t go wide enough to include the 7.