6/6: Belmont Stakes Festival ~ Filly & Mare Friday

[Kasept]

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL ~ FILLY & MARE FRIDAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Munnings Express 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 M J's Yoshida 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Geopolitics 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Bellacose 6-1 WON ($6.20)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Endorse 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Cara's Chianti 15-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Resurge 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Absolute Honor 15-1 8th


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Final Verdict 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Works for Me 8-5 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #1 Fore Harp 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Urban Legend 5-1 7th


4th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Army Gal 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Vehemente 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Jackson's Dixie 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Embraceable Gal 6-1 3rd


5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Malarchuk 4-1 WON-Up via DQ ($8.40)
Best Value: #7 Dreamlike 9-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Strategic Focus 2-1 2nd-DQ'd from Win
Exotics Use: #10 Seeking Unity 8-1 7th


P5 Grid:

1: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1 (A), 7 (B), 8-11 (C)
3: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAAA): 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (8-11 in 2nd)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), - (B), 8-11 (C)
3: 3-8 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
4: 5-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (8-11 in 2nd)


6th: Bed O' Roses (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (2-day .20 P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ways and Means 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Irish Maxima 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Jody's Pride 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Scylla 5-2 2nd


7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Royalty Rate 8-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Hope Mission 15-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Louise Procter 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Mystifying 2-1 12th


P5 Grid:

3: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAAAC): 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-7 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

4: 5-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-7 in 7th)


8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Asbury Park 6-5 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #7 Inwood Drive 12-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Kulapat 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Solutions 12-1 10th


9th: Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 9f ($1 P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Randomized 9-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Raging Sea 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Dazzling Move 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Dorth Vader 10-1 WON ($19.60)


2-day .20 All Dirt P6 Grid:

FR 6: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
FR 9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
SA 7: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 8: 1-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 1-2 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
SA 13: 2-6-7 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x4x4 = 768 x .20 = $153.60
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .20 = $28.80


Must Pay P5 Grid:

5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x3x4 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3-7 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-3 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-7 in 7th)


10th: Belmont Gold Cup (G2), 4+, 14f-OFF (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Curbstone 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Yo Daddy 5-1 2nd


11th: Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 9f ($5 Acorn-Belmont DBL, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Good Cheer 1-2 5th
Next Best: #3 La Cara 10-1 WON ($17.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Bless the Broken 10-1 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-7 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C) ALL (4)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-5 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/8/14/15-1-ALL-3) Paid $113.37 x 4 = $453.48


12th: New York (G1), F&M-4+, 9.5f-T (2-day .50 All Turf P5, $5 NY-Belmont DBL, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 She Feels Pretty 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Forever After All 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Gimme a Nother 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Bellezza 10-1 3rd


2-day .50 All Turf P4 Grid:

FR 12: 8 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
FR 13: 1-2-3-8 (A), 9-10 (B), 5-7 (C)
SA 9: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 10: 1-5 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
SA 12: 2-3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 1x4x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
Backups (CAAAA + ACAAA): 1x4x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (1 in Leg A) + 1x2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16 (5-7 in Leg B)


13th: Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-Inner (2-day .50 P4, DD)

Best Value: #2 Special Wan 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Excellent Truth 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Segesta 15-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Dynamic Pricing 12-1 WON ($22.00)


2-day .50 P4 Grid:

FR 13: 2-8 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
FR 14: 1-2-12/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 1: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
SA 2: 4-6 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACA): 2x3x1x2 = 12 x .50 = $6


14th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f

Best Value: #2 Undisputed 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1e Broman entry 2-1 2nd/3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Hit the Post 15-1 WON ($28.20)
Super Add: #5 Mozambique 10-1 -


P5 Grid:

10: 7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2-8 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
14: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2-3-8 (A), 1-9-10 (B), - (C)
14: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/2,8/1/6) Paid $1,391.75


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL/SAR SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Pretty big scratch with Shred the Gnar in the Acorn.

[knickslions2]

This 3rd race could be fun betting race. Good luck today

[Kasept]

Gold Cup now OFF the turf..

[Kasept]

REVISED LATE P5

P5 Grid:

10: 7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2-8 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
14: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

[Kasept]

2-day .20 All Dirt P6 Grid:

FR 6: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
FR 9: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
SA 7: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 8: 1-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 1-2 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
SA 13: 2-6-7 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x4x4 = 768 x .20 = $153.60
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .20 = $28.80


2-day .50 All Turf P4 Grid:

FR 12: 8 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
FR 13: 1-2-3-8 (A), 9-10 (B), 5-7 (C)
SA 9: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 10: 1-5 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
SA 12: 2-3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 1x4x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
Backups (CAAAA + ACAAA): 1x4x2x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (1 in Leg A) + 1x2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16 (5-7 in Leg B)

[knickslions2]

Good work Steve

[Jerman]

Loved that late pick 4. Great handicapping

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Good work Steve

THX Tom! Had to be on your toes today and still needed more time to react to the Gold Cup surface switch..

Originally Posted by Jerman

Loved that late pick 4. Great handicapping

Jer.. Thanks. Totally owe DRF's Mike Beer for Hit the Post in the 14th. When the SCR of Counter Move came in, I simply relied on his big push on today's show.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

THX Tom! Had to be on your toes today and still needed more time to react to the Gold Cup surface switch..



Jer.. Thanks. Totally owe DRF's Mike Beer for Hit the Post in the 14th. When the SCR of Counter Move came in, I simply relied on his big push on today's show.

Great nonetheless.

I didn’t pick up on you adding the 6. Needed the 1 or 2. That was a great Pick 4 payout!