11/30: Churchill Downs (6th-12th; Fleur De Lis P4)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

#11 Little Menace seemingly certain to SCR as he is re-entered in Sunday's MSW 7th and the 7-5 favorite..

Most Likely: #10 Bango 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Art Collector 10-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #6 American Butterfly 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lykan 6-1 4th


7th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (Single 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Bayerness 5-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #2 Swiss Skydiver 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Emily's Oasis 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Three D Flag 8-1 10th


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Watch for SCR's as 3 of the AE's (13-14-15) have real potential here..

Most Likely: #5 On Tilt 5-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Elusive Ruler 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Digital 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Mailman Money 10-1 WON ($51.00)
Super Add: #6 Jack's Advantage 12-1 5th


Fair Grounds 7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Fleur De Lis P4, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #14 Ioya Again 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 The Last Zip 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Executive Bonus 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Limnery 4-1 2nd


9th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

More interesting than the Jockey Club with an underlaid fave in Finite (7-5) and several prices that have potential..

Most Likely: #6 His Glory 7-2: Lept forward last pair when sent around 2 turns.. -
Best Value: #4 Bean 12-1: Favored in dirt debut when she dropped Rocco.. -
Next Best: #2 Turtle Trax 6-1 -
Exotics Use: #1 Finite 7-5 WON ($3.60)


P4 Grid:

6: 7-10 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
7: 2-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 5-9-12 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Silver State 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Necker Island 4-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Wells Bayou 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Sprawl 8-1 4th


Fair Grounds 9th: Richie Scherer Memorial, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hotshot Anna 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Blue Uluru 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 A Little Bit Me 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 May Lily 8-1 3rd


11th: KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Tagg & Sackatoga writing next chapter in Funny Cide II as they come to Churchill with a chance to snare the 2yo Championship..

Most Likely: #3 Tiz the Law 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Enforceable 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 South Bend 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Fighting Seabee 8-1 7th


Fleur De Lis P4 Grid:

FG 7: 4-5-14 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
CD 9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), - (C)
FG 9: 4-5 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
CD 11: 1-3 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x8x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


12th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sounion 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #10 Civil Servant 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Dark Oak 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Icecap 6-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #12 Draw the Line 12-1 10th


P5 Grid:

8: 5-9-12 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), - (B), 1-4 (C)
12: 9 (A), 10 (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x1x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x4x1x1 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), - (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), 1 (B), 4 (C)
12: 9-10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 4x4x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Good luck Steve. I’m debating whether to bet as the combo of all 2 year olds and a wet track seems like it could lead to some unpredictable results. Then again, that could mean a big payday if you handicap it properly.

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

FG SCR/CHG'S