8/12: Saratoga (Day 20; $56k C/O); Arlington (Million Day; 7th-12th)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Treacherous opener featuring host of hard knocking claimers and lurking presence of 'first off claim' Sammy Wonder Stone from devious Players Group/Arriaga team that burst on Spa scene last summer with 3 wins in 13 days..

Most Likely: #4 Will Did It 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Scarly Charley 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Sammy Wonder Stone 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Nominal Dollars 8-1 5th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Typically nice group of SAR 2yo's with sons out of Tar Heel Mom (Base Command by Tiznow), Lear's Princess (Indimaaj by Tapit) and Delightful Mary (Get the Facts by Tapit) as well as Sweet Loretta full brother Airtouch..

Best Value: #3 Get the Facts 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Airtouch 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Base Command 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Fixedincome Larry 4-1 4th


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-I (P3, DD)

Linda Rice 28% W's (65% ITM!) for $2.53 ROI when stretching out runners first off the claim as she does with Pioneer Spirit (5-1)..

Best Value: #3 Pioneer Spirit 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #2 Six Schillings 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Dr. Edgar 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Space Mountain 4-1 2nd


4th: 101st ADK (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro, a better than average Adirondack with 4 obvious major players. Sly Roxy the lone Casse barn winner thus far upstate and looks prominent today with gears to stalk pace of Pletcher's favored Pure Silver..

Most Likely: #3 Sly Roxy 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Southampton Way 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Pure Silver 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Limited View 4-1 6th


5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Maniacally competitive $25k claiming group with 3-1 fave Azar being given away. Overnight rain may help even up the turf courses which were getting awfully quick the last week or so..

Best Value: #10 Italian Charm 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Azar 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Made in Detroit 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Husband's Folly 30-1 12th


P5 Grid:

1: 4-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-3-6 (C)
2: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
3: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 5 (C)
5: 4-10 (A), 9 (B), 1-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

2: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
3: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 5 (C)
5: 4-9-10 (A), 1-8-12 (B), 6-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$56k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Sportswear 5-2 9th
Best Value: #9 Have At It 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Channel Cat 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Lone Sentry 8-1 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)

Murky outlook with 6 of the 9 (1-2-4-5-7-9) having pedigree or works that invite inclusion on plays. Brown (2) & Pletcher (9) firsters have obvious appeal while Asmussen (1) & Breen (5) have fat stats with their 2nd time starters. Amoss (4) colt has strong work towards this spot and Lukas/Zayat (7) was $575k buy that has shown a.m. zip..

Most Likely: #2 Coal Truth 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Lone Sailor 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Wyatt's Town 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Coltandmississippi 2-1 WON ($8.70)


8th: Opt CLM/C, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Off Limits 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #5 Puca 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Something Else 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Enchanteresse 6-1 7th


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Pretty fascinating group which marks return of Gift Box (SCR). Note Terri Pompey (#10 Icatiro) popping up like a jack-in-the-box and winning Friday at Saratoga .

Most Likely: #5 Lewys Vaporizer 6-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #9 Cerro 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Spartiatis Late SCR
Super Add: #10 Icatiro 15-1 3rd


10th: 33rd Fourstardave (G1), 3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Win in G1 Fourstardave by Generazio's Disco Partner would guarantee him chance at stud, furthering legacy of his underrated sire Disco Rico. I think he's the most likely winner, but want to try steadily improving and well-handled Ballagh Rocks at what will be a nice number and the mile trip may be what suits him best. Same can be said of Time Test who won on the mile straight at Newmarket in the Grp 2 Joel..

Best Value: #1 Ballagh Rocks 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Disco Partner 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Time Test 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #7 World Approval 9-2 WON ($12.60)


11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #7 The Pooch 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #8 Dab 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Danny's Rush Surface SCR


P6 Grid:

6: 8 (A), 9 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-9 (C)
8: 8 (A), 5 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-7 (C)
11: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), 11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A's: 1x1x1x2x2x3 = 12 x $2 = $24


P5 Grid:

7: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-9 (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 2-3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 5-9 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
11: 6-7-8 (A), 11-12 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 5-8 (A), 2-3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 5-9 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
11: 6-7-8 (A), 11-12 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$.50 Pick 4 (8-5-7-All) Paid $22.10 x 3 = $66.30 (A-A-C-A)



ARLINGTON


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 41st Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Oscar Performance 8-5 WON ($5.00
)
Best Value: #1 Afandem 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Permian 9-5 6th


8th: 3rd Bruce D., 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Smoke 'n' Gloat 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Memory Bank 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Uncontested 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Yorkton 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Gain Ground 12-1 6th


9th: 6th American St. Leger (G3), 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Keystoneforvictory 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Postulation 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #8 Bullards Alley 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Taghleeb 2-1 2nd


10th: 28th Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dona Bruja 7-2 DH-2nd
Best Value: #5 Grand Jete 6-1 DH-2nd
Next Best: #1 Dacita 4-1 WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Prado's Sweet Ride 30-1 10th


11th: 35th Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T (Hi-5, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Deauville 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Kasaqui 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Beach Patrol 5-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Oscar Nominated 15-1 8th


12th: 54th Pucker Up (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T

Best Value: #5 Dontmesswithjoanne 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Lipstick City 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Lovely Bernadette 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sensitive 12-1 7th


P5 Grid:

8: 4-8-9 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 2-7-9 (C)
11: 5 (A), - (B), 2-8-10 (C)
12: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), 6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x1x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x2x3x1x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

9: 1-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 1-4-5 (A), 2-7-9 (B), - (C)
11: 5 (A), - (B), 2-8-10 (C)
12: 3-5-6-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x5 = 30 x .50 = $15


Festival P3 Grid:

10: 1-4-5 (A), 2-7-9 (B), - (C)
11: 5 (A), 8 (B), 2-10 (C)
12: 3-5-6-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x1x5 = $15 ($7.50 for .50)