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#1
10-27-2006, 11:40 PM
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bc capping notes...
heard on atrab the other day that ..the last 4 times the bc was held at churchill downs the beyers were within 3 ticks of each other in each class of race..so if im correct..the winners beyer for lets say..the sprint.,,
1st sime it was held at church..112 2nd time it was held at church 114 3rd time it was held at church 113 4th time ect 112 for each class..f and m turf ...ect 1st time 99 2nd time 98 3rd time 100 4th time 98,,,,,these are just an example..im hoping steve can go into further detail...if true this really is a nice nugget..when getting the contenders .....so if you know what it takes to win it..that helps alot.. Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 10-27-2006 at 11:48 PM. 
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#2
10-28-2006, 02:21 AM
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Nice one,Hooves! will follow.....
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#3
10-28-2006, 05:35 AM
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Let me clarify this a tad.. First, this applies strictly to the BC races at CD on the MAIN... The turf races don't apply since pace and trip make the figures vary more widely. Here's the CD numbers with a par (XXX) derived by dropping the highest and lowest of the figs, followed by the Beyer par (XXX) with the Churchill figs taken out, followed by the overall Beyer par (XXX)
CLASSIC: 116, 116, 115, 120, 122 (117/117/118) JUVENILE: 99, 97, 100, 101, 102 (100/99/99) SPRINT: 114, 112, 114, 113, 115 (114/114/114) JUVY GALS: 92, 101, 92, 85, 91 (92/96.5/95) DISTAFF: 108, 105, 105, 107, 115 (107/109/109) Interesting note obviously is that the two girls' races are significantly 'slower' than the SPR, CLS and JUV... Based on the pars, you can draw the conclusion about whom is capable of running those figures. Par contenders based on the "winning" figure with their career best coming in: (NOTE: Euro figs based on Timeform -14) CLASSIC (117): Bernardini (117); David Junior (115*Turf); Geo. Washington (118*Turf); Lava Man (116*); Invasor (113); Sun King (113) JUVENILE (100): C P West (92); Circular Quay (95); King of the Roxy (94); Principle Secret (96); Scat Daddy (95); Stormello (96); SPRINT (114): Bordonero (115); Commentator (121); Dubai Escapade (115); Friendly Island (112); Henny Hughes (113); Kelly's Landing (112-at CD); Malibu Mint (115); Pomeroy (114); Thor's Echo (116); Too Much Bling (113); War Front (114) JUV GALS (92): Cash Included (93); Dreaming of Anna (95) DISTAFF (107): Balletto (104); Fleet Indian (112); Happy Ticket (104); Healthy Addiction (104); Hollywood Story (105); Pine Island (102); Pool Land (105); Round Pond (102); Spun Sugar (103) May have merit.. May be entirely useless.. But it sure seems in historical events that have enough statistically significant info, that the Beyer par is a pretty strong model to identify the most likely contenders. May seem obvious, but as an example, I hadn't realized that Hollywood Story, who's a favorite of mine, has produced a pair of 105's, career bests, in her last 4 races... Hope it's of use to someone..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
10-28-2006, 06:06 AM
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Quote:
good luck today.
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#5
10-28-2006, 06:48 AM
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[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]..im hoping steve can go into further detail...QUOTE]
thank you..i was way off on what i thought...
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#6
10-28-2006, 07:28 AM
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I appreciate the work that went into this, but is this saying anything more than the horses with the best Beyers have the best chance to win? I probably value Beyers more than most here, but I just don't get what's new in this info. Is this suggesting that Beyers may be a better predictor of the BC dirt races than dirt races in general?
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#7
10-28-2006, 07:46 AM
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Beyer pars and studies like this one basically just give you a cutoff point to determine contenders and non-contenders. That's all.
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#8
10-28-2006, 07:47 AM
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Sun King (last 4: 105, 113, 96, 112) offers a much more appealing pattern that would indicate formful opportunity to run a race that would put him in the exotics picture (108-114?)... The decision regarding which runners, who are in the vicinity of the typical winning fig, are the ones you see as "running their race", is an individual call based on your handicapping...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
10-28-2006, 09:13 AM
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Gotta love that spring with 11 horses showing back Beyers within a length of each other's top. No thanks, chalk eaters at the next table.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#10
10-28-2006, 09:30 AM
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You mean Thor's Echo at a likely 60-1? Or Kelly's Landing at possibly 30-1? Or the chalky War Front at maybe 20-1? Friendly Island at 40-1-ish? Which chalky sprint contender within a length of Henny Hughes or Bordonaro do you mean?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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