10/1: Belmont (7th-11th); Santa Anita (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 23rd Gallant Bloom, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

If Hot City Girl SCRATCHED or Momameamaria should get loose, it could be a problem. Paulassilverlining, 2 for 2 at BEL, sits behind that pair and is 3rd choice on the ML making $8 look good..

Most Likely: #4 Paulassilverlining 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #5 Momameamaria 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Wavell Avenue 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Wonder Gal 5-2 5th


8th: 38th Pilgrim (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Oscar Performance & Oiseau de Guerre the obvious power, but 6-1 1st turf Sir Douglas (More Than Ready), 2nd North America Bo Chop (12-1) and KY Downs MDN-breaker Kitten's Cat (10-1) offer menacing value..

Most Likely: #6 Oscar Performance 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #8 Oiseau de Guerre 7-2 6th
Best Value: #5 My Bo Chop 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Kitten's Cat 12-1 3rd


9th: 77th Vosbergh (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Mud SCR of A.P. Indian (PHX at KEE next week) makes this a more compelling event in terms of wagering, especially if you have doubts regarding X Y Jet's return to action. Without A.P. Indian, X Y Jet will be loose unless Green Gratto tears after him. Closer/stalker types (Joking, Stallwalkin' and Dannie's Deceiver) may be hard-pressed to reach leaders while pressers (Weekend Hideaway & Holy Boss) may have edge in terms of how race unfolds..

Most Likely: #2 Holy Boss 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Weekend Hideaway 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 X Y Jet 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Joking 8-1 WON ($10.00)


10th: 78th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Forever Unbridled 1-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #5 Going for Broke 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Off the Tracks 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Tiger Ride 15-1 2nd


11th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #2 Save the Tigers 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 D'yer Mak'er 10-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #5 It Must Be Nice 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Jo's Bold Cat 1-1 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
8: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-5-9 (C)
9: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), 3-7-8 (C)
10: 2 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
11: 2-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-5 (3,4/3,6,10,11/3/2/6) Paid $183.50 (A-A-C-A-A)


P4 Grid:

8: 6-8 (A), 5 (B), 1-4-9 (C)
9: 1-2-3-6-7-8 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
10: 2 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
11: 2-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x6x1x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 Pick-4 (3,6,10,11/3/2/6) Paid $179.25 ($89.62 for .50)



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 5th FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Some sentiment afoot that Straight Fire can turn tables on Klimt today. I'll stick with Klimt here but Straight Fire will be tough to reel in if he gets away easy early. Keep tabs on Gormley from Shirreffs after winning first out..

Most Likely: #6 Klimt 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Straight Fire 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Gormley 8-1 WON ($23.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Midnight Pleasure 6-1 4th


7th: 5th Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

2nd of day's three '2 horse races' and as you heard from Art Sherman yesterday in Hammer's office, Dortmund will be more aggressive v. Chrome today. This is a big opportunity for the Big Brown colt and it may be that in a way, this is his Breeders' Cup Classic..

Best Value: #2 Dortmund 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 California Chrome 2-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Soi Phet 30-1 5th


8th: 5th Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD)

One of the most entertaining major races of the day and fun to approach with 3 short prices out-posted..

Most Likely: #4 Avenge 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #12 Zipessa 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Frenzified 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Elektrum 5-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Decked Out 12-1 12th


9th: 5th Zenyatta (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

I'sd heed the Privman warning that Beholder comes back today breathing fire..

Most Likely: #2 Beholder 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Stellar Wind 8-5 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Tara's Tango 6-1 4th


10th: 5th Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Likely the best race of the day anywhere. Champagne Room has been the ATR 'house filly' from the start of the summer and move to Mike Smith is a statement from Eurton. Filly to beat but there are maybe 7 others that are eligible for laurels. With 2 one mile grass wins under her belt, With Honors demands a look trying turf for the first time. Maiden Mistressofthenight (10-1) looks OK stretching out after tardy start in debut. Baffert pair of American Cleopatra and Noted and Quoted are credentialed of course and remember that the American Pharoah sister was never expected to win first out. Zapperkat and Lake Time impressed earning DMR diplomas. Deep, exciting event that bodes well for the BC Juvy Filly heat..

Most Likely: #3 Champagne Room 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 American Cleopatra 7-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Mistressofthenight 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Zapperkat 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Lake Time 10-1 5th


11th: 5th Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Nodiac 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Coppa 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Swift Lady 9-2 12th
Super Add: #11 Great Page 8-1 11th


P4 Grid:

8: 2-4-12 (A), 3-11-13 (B), 1-10-14 (C)
9: 2 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
10: 3-5-8 (A), 1-4-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
11: 6-12 (A), 10-11 (B), 1-3-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S