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#1
08-15-2015, 05:06 AM
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8/15: Saratoga (Day 20; G2 ADK/Fourstardave); Arlington (Million Day)
Irksome P4 wire beat at Saratoga for $1,033 Friday when Castellano was out-finished by Irad Ortiz. That wasted the bulbous $45.40 mutuel on Queenofzeenile to start the sequence. Later, the wheels came off in the 7th-8th at Del Mar after a 4/4 start to the P6 C/O spate. King of the World one day.. Muttering chump the next. Hope everyone did OK. BIG Saturday on tap..
SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Donegal Moon 2-1: Slight edge over entrymate; both strong.. 6th Best Value: #7 Sailsaw 6-1: KMc Exchange Rate has sib strength, slick worktab.. WON ($9.10) Next Best: #5 Metal Magic 4-1: Kenneally gray going well out of CD debut.. 7th Exotics Use: #3 Show Bound 7-2 3rd 2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Bam Bam 3-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Branded Hand 4-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Hawkshank 10-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 Adirondack Dancer 5-2 WON ($6.50) 3rd: MCLM/$65k, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD) Murky bunch with no one particularly appealing.. Most Likely: #5 Dalmore 7-2 2nd Next Best: #1 Iron in the Fire 2-1 5th Best Value: #4 Gracious Plenty 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #9 Totally Discreet 10-1 3rd 4th: 99th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD) Seemingly solid cast with the 7 missees haling from 5 venues in their last start. Delicate Lady a private purchase by Aron Wellman and shouldn't have any problem converting to dirt. 'Other' Pletcher (Tonasah) is favored and appears to be on track after the inauspicious run off before her scheduled Belmont Week debut... Best Value: #1 Delicate Lady 8-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Tonasah 8-5 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Just Wicked 3-1 WON ($8.70) Super Add: #4 Decked Out 8-1 4th 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD) Sky Hero dangerous if turf to his liking. Not a lot of support from pedigree despite dam (a half to War Pass) being by Danzig.. Most Likely: #7 Brickyard Kitten 4-1 9th Next Best: #9 Take the Stand 3-1 7th Best Value: #5 Xaverian 10-1 8th Exotics Use: #1 Cabo Cat 8-1 3rd P5 Grid: 1: 1 (A), 5-7 (B), 3 (C) 2: 2 (A), - (B), 4-8-9 (C) 3: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C) 4: 1-5 (A), 4-7 (B), 2-3-6 (C) 5: 7-9 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-3 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x1x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 Full (A/B/C): $70 P4 Grid: 2: 2 (A), 4-9 (B), 1-8 (C) 3: 1-5 (A), 4 (B), 3-6-9 (C) 4: 1-5 (A), 4-7 (B), 2-3-6 (C) 5: 7-9 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-3 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Full (A/B/C): $74 6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD) Meet got off to an annoying start when returning Here Comes Rosie was assaulted by Lemon Liquor. Some legit state breds to deal with, but should get diploma here after vying in a.m. with impressive stablemate Anna Rae who aired Friday.. Most Likely: #10 Here Comes Rosie 4-1 4th Best Value: #7 Frostie Anne 8-1 5th Next Best: #3 Young Anna Lee Late SCR Exotics Use: #1 Super Surprise 3-1 3rd 7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 The Pulse Late SCR Best Value: #10 Battlefront 10-1 5th Next Best: #9 Escapist 3-1 WON ($5.20) Exotics Use: #7 Puppy Manners 7-2 8th 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD) Deep, strong cast making for edgy start to great late quad.. Most Likely: #3 Boot Scootn Daddy 5-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Los Borrachos 10-1 6th Next Best: #6 Candir 3-1 5th-DQ'd from 2nd Exotics Use: #10 Mutin 12-1 WON ($19.80) 9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Top Decile 3-1 10th Next Best: #1 Touch the Moon 4-1 11th Best Value: #8 Cult Classic 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #9 Kirov 5-1 WON ($13.00) 10th: 31st Fourstardave (G2), 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD) Terrific group and no reason to take a short price on the faves (1-3-4) when next set of players (2-5-7-8) are every bit as eligible.. Best Value: #2 Grand Arch 10-1 WON ($18.20) Next Best: #1 Mshawish 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #8 Jack Milton 6-1 6th Super Add: #4 King Kressa 3-1 4th 11th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f Most Likely: #3 Who's Z Daddy 5-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Defecit Hawk 5-2 9th Best Value: #2 Gato Azul 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #6 Aleander 4-1 WON ($9.50) P4 Grid: 8: 3 (A), 1-6 (B), 7-10 (C) 9: 1-4 (A), 8-9 (B), 2 (C) 10: 1-2 (A), 4-8 (B), 3-5-7 (C) 11: 1-3 (A), 2 (B), 5-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 Full (A/B/C): $74 (With $1 All A's Play) ARLINGTON PARK POST-SCRATCHES 6th: 52nd Pucker Up (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD) Ahh Chocolate's dam a half to the super Rahystrada but turf aptitude still uncertain. If she takes to it, she's very dangerous in this terrific race. Clement wins these kinds of races with the Miss Chatelaine's of the world. He passed up the Lake Placid at Saratoga for this.. Most Likely: #10 Miss Chatelaine 7-2 7th Next Best: #7 Ahh Chocolate 9-2 10th Exotics Use: #5 Return to Grace 6-1 2nd Super Add: #8 Prado's Sweet Ride 6-1 3rd 7th: 4th American St. Leger (G3), 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Gallopers race and as discussed this week on ATR, Az Ridge likes these affairs and will go a long way at a bonus tote.. Best Value: #5 Az Ridge 20-1 5th Next Best: #7 Hyper 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Lucky Speed 5-1 WON ($8.00) Super Add: #1 Panama Hat 10-1 2nd 8th: 39th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Highland Reel 5-2 WON ($6.80) Next Best: #7 War Dispatch 4-1 7th Best Value: #3 Goldstream 9-2 2nd Exotics Use: #2 Force the Pass 2-1 3rd 9th: 26th Beverly D (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD) Wedding Vow gets 6# as a 3yo v. elsders here and that's a plus with the Ballydoyle gal not likely to go lower than third choice. And on the topic of weight, note the comparative feathers for Carla Bianca, Wedding Vow and Secret Gesture as they doff 12, 7 and 13 respectively from their last starts.. Most Likely: #9 Wedding Vow 4-1 5th Next Best: #8 Euro Charline 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #10 Secret Gesture 9-2 3rd-DQ'd from WIN Super Add: #6 Carla Bianca 8-1 6th 10th: 33rd ArlingtonMillion (G1), 3+, 10f-T (DD, Jackpot Hi-5) Most Likely: #2 Slumber 7-2 8th Next Best: #4 Big Blue Kitten 3-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Up With the Birds 12-1 4th Exotics Use: #10 Triple Threat 6-1 11th Hi-5 Play: #11 Maverick Wave 8-1 12th P5 Grid: 6: 10 (A), 7 (B), 5-8-11 (C) 7: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C) 8: 6 (A), 3-7 (B), 1-2 (C) 9: 9 (A), - (B), 2-3-6-8-10 (C) 10: 2-4 (A), 1-10 (B), 7-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 Full (A/B/C): $60 P4 Grid: 7: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C) 8: 6-7 (A), 3 (B), 1-2 (C) 9: 9 (A), 8-10 (B), 2-3-6 (C) 10: 2-4 (A), 1-10 (B), 7-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Full (A/B/C): $54 (With $1 All A's Play) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 08-15-2015 at 06:31 PM. 
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#2
08-15-2015, 09:33 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
08-15-2015, 10:13 AM
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Saratoga is a war comprised of many battles. You may win and lose many battles, but the goal is to win the war. The only important thing is whether you have a + or - when they lock the doors and shut out the lights for the year.
Deep thought for the day.
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#5
08-15-2015, 10:37 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
08-15-2015, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
08-15-2015, 11:31 AM
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Hollywood idol looks tough in that 8th too. Fun race. Good luck today
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