Saratoga 8/5 Full Card Analysis & A/B/C

ateamstupid · #1 08-04-2015, 10:40 PM

2nd: #1A Wealth to Me is definitely the horse to beat on the plunge and he definitely had no chance in the Brooklyn, but I can't help but feel like he should've been closer to the top two in his last considering how well the race set up for him. I'm interested in #5 Petrocelli off a positive barn switch to Greg DiPrima. He ran a big one 6/26 at BEL, dueling on a very fast pace, keeping on and just getting run down by a tripped-out closer late at 11-1. DiPrima is a sharp guy, hitting at 17% off the trainer change and with a positive lifetime ROI at SAR in 95 starts. His barn was cold at BEL, but he had Plainview ready to roll in his only starter so far this meet. Petrocelli draws well outside of the speed of Chairman Now while the other potential speed, Grandpa Len, is stuck in the 9-hole, could work out a good trip under Rosario. If Linda Rice can get #3 My Adonis back to his good race, he's a big player, but his last was seriously bad.

A: 1,5
B: 3,8

3rd: Keep an eye on #5 Solid Future. Daniel Conway is a sharp out-of-town trainer who's hit with two of his 18 Saratoga starters, at 24-1 and 16-1 respectively, both of which were going dirt to turf off murky Finger Lakes form. Unlike those two, Solid Future has a 303-day layoff to contend with, but he's by prominent turf influence Scat Daddy and has been working steadily for this. For what it's worth, the barn is also 5-for-9 ($6.97 ROI) since the start of 2014 taking blinkers off, as they are today. Another big price worth throwing in is #7 Said No One Ever, who finished with some interest after missing the break in his debut. He's bred to have an OK future on the grass and Arroyo took the call first out despite appearing to have other options in that field. Turf course the way it is could play against him, but perhaps with a sharper break he can be more in the race this time. #2 Wind Warning is the horse to beat off a good run despite a lousy trip against much better last out. #3 River Knight makes sense on the turnback, #4 Long Island Express at least has early speed and is dropping and #10 Spark to Ignite's best race of his career -- by far -- came the only time he sprinted on the SAR turf. Fun race to spread around in.

A: 2,5,7
B: 3,4,10

4th: #4 Send It In and #5 Overawe are the horses to beat on paper, but have they bowled you over with their dirt races? It's not like there aren't other viable options in here either. #2 Super Psyche and #7 Hirschbein both ran pretty well in a turf race with a laughable pace 7/10. The former now goes 2nd off the layoff and adds Lasix for Mott, while the latter is bred to be significantly better on dirt. #1 Mascarello took a LOT of money first out for Jimmy Bond and has gotten consistently good reviews from clockers. His debut didn't work out, but then he ran well in pressing a fast pace going six furlongs on turf despite stumbling at the start. Perhaps he gets embroiled in a pace duel with one or both of the favorites, but there's some talent hiding in this gelding and Bond popped at 12-1 Saturday with Waco bottoming out a good N1X field on the front end.

A: 4,5
B: 1,2,7

5th: This appears to be one of the more straightforward races in the Pick 6 sequence, in that I'm confident I can narrow it down to four horses (it's not an easy sequence). If #8 Eighty Three brings his A-game, they're all running for 2nd. But this is a $250,000 2-year-old purchase who's shown significant promise in two starts being given away for $40,000. Perhaps Welker and Ward have just gotten tired of trying to keep this horse together and are cutting their losses, but on surface it's a fishy class drop. I think the board will tell the tale. #2 Triple Play has speed and is fast enough to win on dirt form, but his turf breeding leaves much to be desired and going dirt-to-turf is historically not a good move for Bruce Levine's barn. #4 Sourcesandmethods strikes me as very dangerous for Klaravich and Rick Violette. This 3-year-old gelding's dam was a nice turf sprinter and by far the best race of his career was the one time he set foot on grass, going this distance at FG 2/19. #10 Decent is logical as the potential controlling speed for Castellano and the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs should prove helpful after tiring a bit twice in a row going longer.

A: 8
B: 4,10
C: 2

6th: Another very deep race. I'd say #5 Abtaal is the horse to beat dropping down after putting in an OK run behind Ironicus last out, but you can make a case for a lot of horses in here. I wouldn't take too short a price on anyone. #12 Rapscallion is interesting off the claim for Danny Gargan, which we've seen as a win angle at 25-1 and 34-1 so far this meet. I think a two-turn mile is right up this horse's alley and he could find himself in a good spot if Carmouche is smart, sitting just off the speed of the 2 and 3. #7 Bim Bam is also worth throwing in as he has plenty of races that would make him tough and his 5/10 effort was at least a step in the right direction off a couple subpar performances. Versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. His original rider was Ricardo Santana, Jr. who I'd much prefer to dead fish Lanerie. Santana, Jr. is hungry and has shown well in limited mounts so far this meet. Those are the main three I'm going to use, but no matter who you like, this is definitely a race where you don't want to take too short a number on anyone.

A: 5
B: 7,12

7th: This looks like a race to take a shot with one of two firsters, since the ones who have run already appear to be on the mediocre side. #2 Excuse My French is a half to the very nice My Happy Face who won by 20+ lengths at SAR as a 2YO and goes out for Chad and Javier, so she has to be respected. Main issues are Line of David is 0-for-39 with firsters and the rail draw. She's been working steadily -- and quickly -- locally since early May. #9 Istiraaha is a full to BC Dirt Mile winner Tapizar for Shadwell/McLaughlin/Irad and has to be considered very live.

A: 2,9

8th: Another deep field, where Chad and Todd have decent shots in #4 Granny Mc's Kitten and #5 Patsy's Holiday but I can make a case for everybody except maybe #1 Unbelievable Dream. #2 Cash Control is bred on both sides to like turf and has several dirt races fast enough to win here at a price for live connections. Lost all chance at the break in her return race at Ellis. Love the local turf breeze too. #6 La Madrina has been a disappointment on dirt, but she's out of a Giant's Causeway dam and worked very fast on the Oklahoma grass on Saturday. Also has dirt races fast enough to win. #8 Crisolles is obviously a very dangerous import for Christophe Clement, though it's tough to have a lot of confidence in Leparoux right now. #10 Distorted Beauty ran two very good races to start her season, then was wide to nowhere over a quirky turf course at Parx. Big threat back in NY for Bruce Levine. #3 Speed Seeker could be rounding back to that big 3rd at 60-1 in the Hillsborough and it certainly doesn't hurt to have her early foot on this baked grass course or a rider switch to John Velazquez. Chad Brown's other horse, #9 Water Hole, surely isn't impossible either.

A: 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10

9th: It's tough to see anyone being able to run with #3 Stonetastic early. #11 Sugar Shock may be sent from the outside, but if Stonetastic breaks, she's supposed to be alone on the lead. By far the best race of her career came in a similar position over this track in the G2 Prioress last summer. There might be a bit of a question about her going this far, but once upon a time she was 2nd to Untapable in the two-turn Pocahontas, so I think she'll be OK at 7. Work pattern for Kelly Breen tight as a drum. #6 Wavell Avenue is dangerous for Chad. Her race two-back, albeit against much weaker, was a dynamite effort and then she ran a good 3rd despite an eventful trip on the WO grass. Has the speed to stalk Stonetastic and get first run if that one sputters, but she also has a tendency to break a step slowly, which could spell trouble in this big field. The 2, 5 and 9 also make sense, but they may be up against it from a pace standpoint.

A: 3
B: none
C: 2,5,6,9

10th: By contrast, this is a race that appears to have a good amount of speed signed on. Between the 2, 3, 4, 5 and especially the 7 and 8, there should be enough hitting up front to set up #6 Aleander or #11 Who's Z Daddy, who just appear to be the clear two horses to beat. One I'd throw in at a price behind the favorites is #1 Little Rocco, who ran very well two-back when closing into a slow pace. #10 Pin and Win isn't impossible, but it's been a long time since he's closed the deal.

A: 6,11
B: 1
C: 10

Very challenging card where it's tough to string together a confident Pick 5 or Pick 6 ticket, but looks like a day where you can do well if you keep it simple and are right about a price or two. Been a frustrating meet so far, so hopefully that turns around starting tomorrow.

G/L!