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#1
11-02-2012, 09:49 PM
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John Shirreffs MO with his stable stars
John Shirreffs got his start on his own as the private trainer for 505 Farms. 505 Farms was owned by a guy named Marshall Naify and his partner Eddie Nahem. They weren't easy guys to train for and they made Bobby Frankel run horses in spots where he even complained to the press he didn't want to run in.
Frankel trained 505's best horse Bertrando to a 2nd place finish in the 1993 Breeders Cup Classic. Naify's plan for Bertrando in 1994 was to use him as a stallion during the breeding season -- and race him in the summer through the rest of the year after he returned from the breeding shed. Bobby Frankel refused to do it. Naify and Nahem fired Frankel (or the other way around) and they went out and hired John Shirreffs (An assistant trainer for Eduardo Inda at the time) to be 505's private trainer. Bertrando had been bred to a bunch of mares earlier in the year in '94...Shirreffs still won the Goodwood with him and managed a 6th place finish in the BC Classic after he set a very fast pace (Concern won from dead last) The point is that Naify and Nahem weren't typical owners and seemed to like things done their way. John Shirreffs record with first time starters from 1998-through-1999 was 24-14-4-0 (58.3% wins) $7.63 ROI. Shirreffs big 505 filly Manistique popped a 110 Beyer in her debut. Hook And Ladder also ran a 110 in his debut for him. David Copperfield beat Fusaichi Pegasus in his debut (Fu Peg didn't lose again until the Preakness) A lot of other ran monster figures but didn't develop into anything. Basically, John Shirreffs was the most remarkable debut trainer I had ever witnessed. He was lethal at cranking horses up with workouts. That was until Marshall Naify died in 2000 and all the 505 Farms horses were dispersed at auction. Shirreffs went back out on his own and immediately changed his MO with his new clients. He became a very patient and conservative trainer who was average at best with debut horses. He has always kept a small stable and he takes his time with horses. All of the tedious background on him above is relevant (I think anyway) because of his incredible skill with preparing his star horses to run peak efforts for their long-term goals. * Giacomo was briefly the future book Kentucky Derby favorite in Las Vegas after a strong closing 2nd place finish to the eventual 2yo champion in the Hollywood Futurity. His goal to start the season was quite obviously the Kentucky Derby. Giacomo was 3rd to Going Wild in the Sham, a distant 2nd to Consolidator in the San Felipe and 4th to Buzzard's Bay in the Santa Anita Derby. His worktab was a joke for all of his Derby preps. But after the Santa Anita Derby, Shirreffs cranked him up with a bullet 7 furlong work and a bullet 6 furlong work. Very uncharacteristically fast works from out of nowhere as you can see.  Giacomo was no longer being babied, he was cranked up for his yearlong objective and won the race at 50/1 odds. As a 4-year-old, Shirreffs long term goal with Giacomo was the BC Classic. He had been terrible coming into the BC Classic and obviously had no chance with monsters like Bernardini and Invasor. Long story short -- Giacomo ran a great 4th and was beaten just 4.5 lengths for the win by Invasor, Bernardini, and 3rd place finisher Premium Tap (who won the Grade 1 Clark Handicap by 7 lengths next time out) Note the improvement Giacomo showed in his goal race: http://a3.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/i...ff250da5/l.png * Giacomo's brother Tiago was babied along early. Unlike Giacomo, he didn't have the Graded earnings. He couldn't get to the Kentucky Derby without a big performance in the Santa Anita Derby. After a series of dull works ... Shirreffs drilled him for the SA Derby and he responded with a 29/1 win in the Santa Anita Derby, which gave him the earnings he needed to make the Kentucky Derby.  Tiago's main objective at age 4 was the Breeders Cup Classic. He performed dismally that season, but ran a surprising 3rd in the BC Classic, beating Curlin home as the top finishing American in the race. He ran to his max in his main objective, but his surrounding form was gruesome:  * Zenyatta -- Same profile. He would pick out the softest campaign for her during the year. When it came time for her Super Bowl at the end of each season, Shirreffs would take off the gloves and drill her in her workouts. Here are her final two preps before she won the Breeders Cup Classic. Her worktab going into the BC Classic the year she won it is below.  It wasn't the same horse who was just getting by and beating garbage all year. She was a fully cranked Super Zenyatta. Able to blow away the likes of Gio Ponti instead of just getting up against allowance caliber fillies. Even though Zenyatta was 2nd to Blame in the Classic the following year -- she had the same pattern and she ran MUCH better when 2nd to Blame than she had in her moderate performances leading up to it. * Life Is Sweet worked a 1:11 and change bullet in her final drill before she snapped a 4 race losing steak for Shirreffs in the BC Distaff, winning big at 8/1 odds. Long story short -- Mr. Commons was still a maiden at the start of his 3-year-old season. He developed into Shirreffs new stable star and finished 5th in last years Breeders Cup Mile at Churchill. Mr. Commons main objective all year was the Breeders Cup Mile on his home court. He's been disappointing and is winless in his last five races ... but those weren't bad performances and now Shirreffs has lit him up with 3 straight bullet works since his last race. Two of which at six furlongs. He's working further and faster for a master. He might not be good enough -- but he turned off a lot of people when he was losing his last five starts in a row at odds of 3/5, 4/5, 3/2, 2/1, and 7/2 while on the path here to his main objective. The same way Giacomo turned off a lot of people when he couldn't beat Roger Stein horses and Going Wild. The same way Zenyatta turned off a lot of people when she was barely getting by against creampuffs. This was always Mr. Common's Super Bowl tomorrow. Shirreffs knows how to get them ready off of workouts. I'm betting Mr. Commons tomorrow on faith. 
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#3
11-03-2012, 01:22 AM
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#4
11-03-2012, 03:39 AM
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He's only averaging 41 points a game and the hapless Rockets are 2-0. He Durant and Westbrook sure were a nice trio of very young players to have. Ah well.
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#6
11-03-2012, 05:20 AM
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Thanks.
Shirreffs is such a unique trainer because he blends a style of extreme patience and conservative horsemanship --- with like a desperate Bob Baffert on steroids style of training aggression whenever he needs it. Here's an interesting stat: Richard Mandella has won all of the last 5 Breeders Cup races on dirt that he's started in at Santa Anita. 2012 BC was at Santa Anita: He's 1-for-1 so far. Beholder won and paid $9.80 2009 BC was at Santa Anita: No dirt surface. Crown of Thorns was 2nd by a nose at 15/1 odds in the Breeders Cup sprint for Mandella. It was his only synthetic starter. 2008 BC was at Santa Anita: Mandella went 0-for-1 on synthetic. 2003 BC was at Santa Anita: Pleasantly Perfect won the BC Classic at 14/1 odds. Mandella's Action This Day won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at 26-to-1 odds. Mandella's Minister Eric was 2nd in the race. The all Mandella exacta paid $367. Mandella's Halfbridled won the Juvenile Fillies over Ashado despite breaking from post #14. 1993 BC was at Santa Anita. Mandella was 2-for-2 on this day. Phone Chatter won the Juvenile fillies for him over Sardula and Heavenly Prize. Kotashaan won the BC Turf for him. Mandella's lifetime record in the BC at Santa Anita: Dirt: 8 starts, 5 wins, 1 second. (the two who missed the board were Hopeful World - 8th in the 1986 Classic at 22/1 odds and Siphonizer was off the board at 22/1 odds in the race where Mandella finished 1-2 with Action This Day and Minister Eric) Turf: 6 starts, 2 wins Synthetic: 2 starts, no wins, one second. Overall: 16 starts, 7 wins, 2 seconds Mandella has two starters today. Rumor in the filly and mare sprint and Jimmy Creed in the Sprint. Somehow I don't think he's going to end the day having won 7 straight BC races on dirt at Santa Anita.
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#7
11-03-2012, 06:34 AM
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Great stuff man, thanks.
And he sure is taking his time getting Eblouissante into a race.
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#8
11-03-2012, 08:05 AM
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#10
11-03-2012, 09:08 AM
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#11
11-03-2012, 09:17 AM
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Off topic here, but in regards to Mandella. After the Juvenile Fillies yesterday, it was pretty amusing to see an elated Mandella making his way down to the winners circle, while a deflated Baffert sulked back into his seat and shook his head. Made me think back to the Big Cap last year, after they determined Game on Dude was staying up and survived the inquiry. Baffert told Mandella something like "you wouldn't want to win that way anyway." The look on Mandella's face was priceless.
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#13
11-03-2012, 12:59 PM
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Great stuff.
I've always felt that a great way of measuring trainer skill is their ability to get a horse to peak for their major objective. Most horses are not going stay at their absolute peak for more than 2-3 races (some only 1) before they start to head south or become more in and out as they decline. You have to keep them fresh to get a peak. (see Havre de Grace, Questing, Awesome Feather, Rachel Alexandra etc.... Even Royal Delta was a little in and out after peaking so soon) Shirreffs is great at it and so was Whittingham. That's what made Shirreffs handling of Zenyatta so amazing. He had her cranked through most of her 4YO season, but when he brought her back at 5 and 6 he knew he was dealing with an older mare that he wanted to peak in November when she would need it against boys. So he sent her out a little short and hoped she would win anyway because she was so much better. The combination of ridiculously slow paces, being less than 100%, and a couple of misjudged rides almost got her beat by weak horses, but the plan was well executed. There are very few 6YOs still firing close to peak efforts after 19 starts "on the exact day you want them to". That took incredible training skill. Of course, your horse has to be good enough to win, but that's an entirely different matter. It's always a huge plus to know that the probability of your horse firing its "A" race is higher or lower than average - and that's very correlated to trainer skill. The "A" race of an inferior horse often beats the "B" race of a superior horse that peaked too soon.
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http://www.classhandicapping.blogspot.com/ Last edited by classhandicapper : 11-03-2012 at 06:23 PM.
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