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#1
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![]() Over the years, I've started to pay more and more attention to workouts and how they can help my handicapping. Most seem to be of the 4f variety - and when I see strong 5 and 6 furlong works I look at those closely.
My question is how much consideration should I give the 3 furlong work? Why do trainers opt for the 3f vs 4f - are they trying to accomplish something different with one versus the other? If you're preparing for a 6f or longer race, is there anything to be learned from a 3f workout? Just looking for some opinions. Thanks.
__________________
"God have mercy on the man who doubts what he's sure of." - Bruce Springsteen |
#2
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![]() i think there are different reasons for a short work like that.
one can be with a horse either just starting training, or a horse returning to training after a layoff. trainers don't typically look for a timed work of more than 3 f right away. another can be if they have a horse that they're trying to take the edge off. another can be if they're trying to put some speed into a horse. guess it just depends on what you see in their overall work pattern, and compare it to the race conditions you're capping for. |
#3
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![]() I enjoy tracking work out patterns, but I pay no attention to 3f times... they rarely give me what I am looking for...
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#4
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![]() Quote:
Some time ago Kirin was on Steve's show discussing what 2 year old pattern of work outs is an alert worth paying attention to? He responded that a 3F blow out a few days before a first time starters initial race was an indicator "he meant business". Of course this could have been last year, five years ago or longer depending on how much my advancing senility was altering my thought process that day..... Dr.D |
#5
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![]() Note too that quoted 3f works frequently are cut-out of a further work of 4f, 5f or even more. Trainers will tell clockers that their horse is working three furlongs but are in fact involved in a longer drill between certain poles.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. |
#6
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![]() And to add to that alot not all 3f works out of the gate are actually Just horses that have went a 1/8th of a mile or a 1/4 and that is the time the pull up 3/8's in. We do that quite abit getting horse's ok'd from the gate
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#7
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![]() Keep in mind that the workout time recorded isn't always correct. Spacing of the works is more important, IMO.
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#8
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![]() Workouts are probably the most questionable infomation that you will be given. There is a great deal of inconsistency between tracks and even individual clockers. I have no idea at sometracks what the difference between a H and B work as horses that are under stout restrait get H and horses with a rider driving on them get B. I have sent horses to the track, given the horses name, distance working, even pole breaking off from and rider and either gotten back the wrong distance or nothing at all which alot of time becomes 3f in 38. To be fair the entire process is ripe for confusion as when the track opens after the harrow break there are often 30 horses breaking off from different places within minutes of each other.
Late works are almost always works of fiction. Old timers used to blow horses out right before a race more than is done now and you would often see a 3f work the day before (Shug still does this occasionally). |
#9
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![]() Trainers never lie...
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#10
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![]() That's true..
But those thievin' clockers, now that's a different story.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. |
#11
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![]() I like to look for 7f or 1m workouts, but I notice that these are quite rare except among the West Coast trainer "colony", a fact I've never quite understood.
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#12
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![]() I personally like to see a 7 Fur or 1 Mile work into a horse that will race at 6 Fur or 7 Fur
you used to see that alot in the "old days" - not so much anymore these horses tend to be "fit" |
#13
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![]() A lot of good information in this thread, but I will add that I'm generally partial to first-time starters/layoff horses who have a series of longer works punctuated by a quick 3-furlong blowout a few days before the race. I find it's often the sign of a more fully cranked runner.
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#14
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![]() if shipping in sometimes a 3f work on the new track or a gate w for 3f is a good thing..i like to see 2/4 102.b in a row on a firster..thats money..
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#15
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![]() A solid 5F workout since last race and within the last 4 weeks increases ROI significantly.
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#16
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![]() Here is a GREAT column that highlights the amount of gamesmanship and coverage that would go into morning workouts 100 years ago.
http://kdl.kyvl.org/cgi/t/text/pagev...15120801%3A3.2 Obviously -- that was at a time in history when things were much more favorable to the bettor -- and you could make a large amount of money much, much, much, much more easily by successfully putting over the horse in the morning. |
#17
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![]() I would think trainers like to publish 4 furlong works rather than 3 furlong works for variety of reasons such as owners rather see their horse work a half mile than 3F. I will say from my own experience that a lot of 5 furlong works are published as 4 furlong works because the clockers occasionally miss the horse breaking off from the 5 furlong marker.
Last edited by Kasept : 09-26-2012 at 06:04 AM. |
#18
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![]() Awesome stuff. Thanks everyone for the info.
__________________
"God have mercy on the man who doubts what he's sure of." - Bruce Springsteen |