Big Browns crop

[Calzone Lord]

I've studied a lot of great horses and over a hundred years worth of charts and past performances -- one of the most striking things from my efforts at making figures for past top horses is that the crazy fast figures typically come at age 4.

Generally, that's the true prime and it's the age when the vast majority of freakish performances occur. Often, the most sensationally fast horses in history that I've found just would seem to have a switch flip at age 4.

3-year-olds this time really shouldn't be competitive with the older horses.

Secretariat lost two out of his three dirt races against older horses. A pair of razor sharp 4-year-olds (Onion and Prove Out) beat him.

Affirmed was beaten as a 1-to-2 favorite by razor sharp 4-year-old Seattle Slew in his debut against older horses.

Seattle Slew didn't race against older horses at age 3 (a good thing because a good field of older alw horses could have beaten him) -- but he lost his first stakes test against older horses when a fellow razor sharp 4-year-old named Dr. Patches beat him. Slew made an almost Discovery and Coaltown like progression from age 3 to 4 and became a wickedly fast 4yo.

The star of the triple crown series is rarely competitively with the best performers of the crop the following year. Using recent examples ...

* Mine That Bird won the Derby and was competitive and on-the-board in both the Preakness and Belmont. Quality Road and Blame were much better at 4.

* Afleet Alex almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2002 foal Invasor was much better at age 4.

* Smarty Jones almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2001 crop members Lava Man and Commentator both ran figures of 120 or better at age 4.

* Funny Cide was alive for a triple crown...he couldn't warm up fellow 2000 crop member Ghostzapper at age 4.

* War Emblem was alive for a triple crown... fellow crop members Mineshaft, Candy Ride, and Medaglia D'Oro would have obliterated him at age 4.

Big Brown's crop really sucked. I think Rail Trip, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, and Macho Again might have been the best 4-year-old from it. Am I forgetting anyone?