Sway Away

wac · #1 05-19-2011, 12:38 PM

Just wanted to get everyone's .02 on this. i remember very vividly watching the Ark Derby thinking that this horse had the race wonat the top of the stretch and just ran out of gas. In further review i thought that maybe the jock moved just a touch too early and horse ran out of gas but too my eyes it was the best "move" i had seen so far up to and including AK in the Vinery(no i did not win on AK in the Derby). My question is do most on here view this horse as a late running sprinter or a horse that truly has some "push button" quality and can make some noise on Saturday. I was thinking that between 9-1 and 12-1 would be fair odds enough to bet. I just wanted some other opinions in that maybe i am making too much of the Ark Derby effort.

PatCummings · #2 05-19-2011, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac

Just wanted to get everyone's .02 on this. i remember very vividly watching the Ark Derby thinking that this horse had the race wonat the top of the stretch and just ran out of gas. In further review i thought that maybe the jock moved just a touch too early and horse ran out of gas but too my eyes it was the best "move" i had seen so far up to and including AK in the Vinery(no i did not win on AK in the Derby). My question is do most on here view this horse as a late running sprinter or a horse that truly has some "push button" quality and can make some noise on Saturday. I was thinking that between 9-1 and 12-1 would be fair odds enough to bet. I just wanted some other opinions in that maybe i am making too much of the Ark Derby effort.

He's my top pick. The ThoroGraph sheets have him listed as 3wide2wide, which is ridiculously understating it. If Oaklawn had Trakus, I'd love to see how much ground he covered, he spent most of the race losing ground. Dance City ran an awesome race and stayed on, but Sway Away, to me, ran a better race considering the overwhelming ground loss and an abyssmal ride from PVal that looked like he thought The Factor was the only horse in the race.

asudevil · #3 05-19-2011, 01:13 PM

I can't bet a horse, in a classic race, that has never won around 2 turns. I may regret these words....can't do it.

lemoncrush · #4 05-19-2011, 02:17 PM

I agree he made a good move, but P-Val should have known that the Factor was already cooked at that point of the race, and didn't need to make that premature move to engage him.

A better ride moves him up in this race, I'm just not sure if it's good enough to win.

bigjag0716 · #5 05-19-2011, 03:07 PM

He's interesting. What do you all think he will go off at? maybe in the 8-1 to 12-1 range? I think he is definitely an exotics horse for sure.

bigjag0716 · #6 05-19-2011, 03:13 PM

Sorry, I didn't see the last part of your post. Yeah, I'm expecting that range of odds. I don't like him as my top horse, but I do like him in my 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots and If I were to play a double/pick 3/pick 4, I would include him.

hockey2315 · #7 05-19-2011, 05:05 PM

I think he'll easily be over 10-1. . . probably closer to his 15-1 ML. I'm betting him to win and keying off him and Dance City.

letswastemoney · #8 05-19-2011, 05:12 PM

I don't get why people like him. He's never even hit the board in his 2 route efforts...

I suppose the pace will be fast here though. I just imagine him making a bold move and flattening out once again.

Dahoss · #9 05-19-2011, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I don't get why people like him. He's never even hit the board in his 2 route efforts...

I suppose the pace will be fast here though. I just imagine him making a bold move and flattening out once again.

It's certainly possible he's a closing sprinter, but doesn't he have some excuses in his route races?

He hit the gate, lost a tooth and fought Gomez after that in the Rebel. Then he was wide, moved way too early in the Arkansas Derby and got tired at the end.

He might not be good enough, but I don't think we've seen his best yet. Maybe it'll be sprinting, but I think at 15-1 (hopefully) he deserves another shot with a clean trip (hopefully).

somerfrost · #10 05-19-2011, 05:54 PM

Sway Away translates to Stay Away for me in the Preakness, I think the body of evidence indicates he is indeed a closing sprinter, probably capable of winning graded stakes at 8 furlongs, maybe stretching out to 9 furlongs in the right spot but the Preakness would appear beyond his better distances. Then again, I sure thought the Derby was asking too much of Animal Kingdom first time on the dirt. This is a crazy year with no horse stepping up as of yet so if you like Sway Away, I wish you the best.

HaloWishingwell · #11 05-19-2011, 06:49 PM

at 15-1 I'll gamble that 2 route races with excuses is not enough evidence.

Thunder Gulch · #12 05-20-2011, 09:08 AM

It's a leap of faith on Sway Away, but the price should make it easier to swallow. He was moved twice at bad times by PV, and before that he broke through the gate in the Rebel. He was a little rank Ark, but Gomez did get him to settle when he rode him before. I think he has a pretty good shot at a minor share.

miraja2 · #13 05-20-2011, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Sway Away translates to Stay Away for me in the Preakness, I think the body of evidence indicates he is indeed a closing sprinter, probably capable of winning graded stakes at 8 furlongs, maybe stretching out to 9 furlongs in the right spot but the Preakness would appear beyond his better distances. Then again, I sure thought the Derby was asking too much of Animal Kingdom first time on the dirt. This is a crazy year with no horse stepping up as of yet so if you like Sway Away, I wish you the best.

Do you really think there is that big of a difference between 9f and 9.5f?

I don't think he's a particularly likely win candidate, but I won't be playing any trifectas that don't include him underneath.

somerfrost · #14 05-20-2011, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Do you really think there is that big of a difference between 9f and 9.5f?

I don't think he's a particularly likely win candidate, but I won't be playing any trifectas that don't include him underneath.

Yeah, there is a difference but mainly this is the Preakness and the field is presumed to be top class three year olds...I know this year that may be debatable but still better than the average grade 1. And like I said, he might get 9 furlongs "in the right spot". Once again, I admit that he isn't a bigger gamble than Animal Kingdom's ability on the dirt so....

OldDog · #15 05-20-2011, 06:43 PM

He's not in my Tri, but I'm betting him ATB in the event that he shines.

VOL JACK · #16 05-20-2011, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

He's my top pick. The ThoroGraph sheets have him listed as 3wide2wide, which is ridiculously understating it. If Oaklawn had Trakus, I'd love to see how much ground he covered, he spent most of the race losing ground. Dance City ran an awesome race and stayed on, but Sway Away, to me, ran a better race considering the overwhelming ground loss and an abyssmal ride from PVal that looked like he thought The Factor was the only horse in the race.

Yeah, I can't see how they gave Sway Away and Dance City both 3w2w.
SW was always at least 3 paths wider that DC every step of the way.

PatCummings · #17 05-21-2011, 09:17 AM

A friend of mine told me there was a correction on the sheet to 3w4w, which still understates his first turn. Not to mention the middle move

Travis Stone · #18 05-21-2011, 09:55 AM

I feel like he's a closing sprinter, and if this race were run 100 times, a big chunk of them he puts in a middle move and flattens out again. But, I guess I'm second-guessing myself enough to use him a bit.

DaTruth · #19 05-21-2011, 02:05 PM

I've never been a big fan of Sway Away, but after watching the Arkansas Derby again, I think he ran a better race than Dance City. I'm willing to give him another route race before I dismiss him as a closing sprinter. I'm playing him to win at 10-1 or higher.