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#1
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![]() Bernardini -185 vs Field +169
Bernardini -236 vs Bluegrass Cat +210 |
#2
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#3
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![]() Why do they always make these types of match ups confusing? Why cant they just have one standard odds system like horse racing. I dont get it.
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#4
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![]() The Henny Hughes-Bernardini parlay is the free money tomorrow. You figure you can turn $2 into $6 pretty easily. Add a couple zeros and you can make a nice piece of change.
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#5
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#6
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I'll give you the approximate standard horseracing odds: Bernardini 3-5 vs Field 8-5 Bernardini 2-5 vs BGC 2-1 |
#7
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![]() Thanks Richi. I am ignorant when it comes to betting sports, so very unfamiliar with any kinds of odds besides the system used in horse racing.
Good luck tomorrow. |
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#9
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If you wanted to bet the crappy team against the Yankees, the odds on the crappy team would probably be +210. That means you would make $210 for every $100 you bet. If you went up to the window and put $100 on the crappy team and the crappy team won, you would get back $310, meaning you would make a profit of $210. |
#10
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#11
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![]() Another way to explain it in "horse odds" lingo:
To Win: $100 Must Bet: $185 Horse Odds = $100 / $185 = $.54 to $1 I have a question.... If you take Bernidini and he scratches, I assume "No Action." What happens if the "field" has one or more scratches including, say, BG Cat? This isn't really my thing, but if you think Bernidini is going to be 1/2 or less and you are protected if he scratches AND your action holds in a short field if BG Cat scratches, then it's fairly interesting. |
#12
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When a single horse is part of the matchup, like Bernardini, then you are correct that his scratch would void the bet. Nice job explaining the odds, btw. --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#13
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When the number is positive, such as +169, then the number is the amount you win if you bet $100. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#14
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-236 is odds of 100/236, or 0.42 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.42) = 70% of the time. So, the question is, do the other horses (besides Bernardini and BGC) have a combined 5% chance to win the race? If the other horses have more than a combined 5% chance to win the race, then the -236 on Bernardini vs BGC is the better bet. For example, if each of the "other" horses' fair odds are 60-1, then it would be better to take the -236 bet vs BGC. (60-1 means about 1.7% chance to win, and 4 x 1.7% is almost 7%. That's bigger than 5%) That's ignoring the chance that one or more field horses (besides Kip) scratches, however. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#15
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![]() call me crazy but I think Bernardini is a bad bet tomorrow
I see Minister's Bid giving him a target but then I also see Blue Grass Cat pressing him with Hesanoldsalt plodding along hoping that Minister's Bid & High Cotton gives him something to run at. I'm not rooting against. I'm jus saying it wouldn't take a whole lot for Blue Grass Cat to upset Bernardini and I would be happy if Hesanoldsalt hit the board could happen they don't call Satoga the graveyard of champions for nothing
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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ |
#16
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Bernardini is now -193 (previously -185) to beat the Field. But he is -281 (previously -236) to beat BGC. The bettors have been jumping (more) on the matchup vs BGC. The current odds imply an 8% chance of one of the other horses (besides BGC) finishing in front of Bernardini. I think that's more realistic than the 5% chance that was implied from the odds last night. I think the actual chance is probably bigger than even 8%. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |