Why does this feel like a mistake...

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ical-to-racing

The rush to provide something will undoubtedly lead to a useless report that is nonetheless used to change industry standards. For the life of me i dont understand why statistical data is being interpreted by a British vet as opposed to you know, uh, a statistician?

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ical-to-racing

The rush to provide something will undoubtedly lead to a useless report that is nonetheless used to change industry standards. For the life of me i dont understand why statistical data is being interpreted by a British vet as opposed to you know, uh, a statistician?

I'd guess it's his international bonafides in collaborating with other equine researchers, providing the statistical analysis to the study.

Use of free text clinical records in identifying syndromes and analysing health data. Lam K, Parkin T, Riggs C, Morgan K. Vet Rec. 2007 Oct 20;161(16):547-51.

Vet Clin North Am Equine Pract. 2008 Apr;24(1):1-19.
Epidemiology of racetrack injuries in racehorses.
Parkin TD.
Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Scotland

Effect of exercise on thicknesses of mature hyaline cartilage, calcified cartilage, and subchondral bone of equine tarsi. Tranquille CA, Blunden AS, Dyson SJ, Parkin TD, Goodship AE, Murray RC. Am J Vet Res. 2009 Dec;70(12):1477-83.

Risk factors associated with equine gastric ulceration syndrome (EGUS) in 201 horses in Denmark. Luthersson N, Nielsen KH, Harris P, Parkin TD.
Equine Vet J. 2009 Sep;41(7):625-30.

The prevalence and anatomical distribution of equine gastric ulceration syndrome (EGUS) in 201 horses in Denmark. Luthersson N, Nielsen KH, Harris P, Parkin TD. Equine Vet J. 2009 Sep;41(7):619-24

Concentrations of dust and endotoxin in equine stabling. Whittaker AG, Hughes KJ, Parkin TD, Love S. Vet Rec. 2009 Sep 5;165(10):293-5. No abstract available.

Welfare of horses transported long distances in Europe.
Marlin D, Meldrum K, White J, Westen H, Parkin T, Wood J, Broom D, Kennedy M, Johnson B, Coombs S, Heard C. Vet Rec. 2009 Aug 29;165(9):270. No abstract available.

Dynamic respiratory endoscopy in 67 Thoroughbred racehorses training under normal ridden exercise conditions. Pollock PJ, Reardon RJ, Parkin TD, Johnston MS, Tate J, Love S. Equine Vet J. 2009 Apr;41(4):354-60.

Exhaled breath condensate hydrogen peroxide and pH for the assessment of lower airway inflammation in the horse. Duz M, Whittaker AG, Love S, Parkin TD, Hughes KJ. Res Vet Sci. 2009 Oct;87(2):307-12. Epub 2009 Apr 24.

Identification of risk factors for lameness in dressage horses. Murray RC, Walters JM, Snart H, Dyson SJ, Parkin TD. Vet J. 2009 Apr 13.

Evaluation of age-related changes in the structure of the equine tarsometatarsal osteochondral unit. Murray RC, Blunden TS, Branch MV, Tranquille CA, Dyson SJ, Parkin TD, Goodship AE. Am J Vet Res. 2009 Jan;70(1):30-6.

The use of race winnings, ratings and a performance index to assess the effect of thermocautery of the soft palate for treatment of horses with suspected intermittent dorsal displacement. A case-control study in 110 racing Thoroughbreds. Reardon RJ, Fraser BS, Heller J, Lischer C, Parkin T, Bladon BM. Equine Vet J. 2008 Jul;40(5):508-13.

Epidemiology of racetrack injuries in racehorses.
Parkin TD.
Vet Clin North Am Equine Pract. 2008 Apr;24(1):1-19. Review.

Retrospective study of palmar/plantar annular ligament injury in 71 horses: 2001-2006. Owen KR, Dyson SJ, Parkin TD, Singer ER, Kristoffersen M, Mair TS. Equine Vet J. 2008 May;40(3):237-44. Erratum in: Equine Vet J. 2008 Sep;40(6):527.

Lower respiratory tract disease in Thoroughbred racehorses: analysis of endoscopic data from a UK training yard. Ramzan PH, Parkin TD, Shepherd MC. Equine Vet J. 2008 Jan;40(1):7-13.

Evaluation of detailed training data to identify risk factors for retirement because of tendon injuries in Thoroughbred racehorses. Lam KK, Parkin TD, Riggs CM, Morgan KL. Am J Vet Res. 2007 Nov;68(11):1188-97.

Risk factors for Thoroughbred racehorse fatality in flat starts in Victoria, Australia (1989-2004). Boden LA, Anderson GA, Charles JA, Morgan KL, Morton JM, Parkin TD, Clarke AF, Slocombe RF. Equine Vet J. 2007 Sep;39(5):430-7.

Risk factors for Thoroughbred racehorse fatality in jump starts in Victoria, Australia (1989-2004). Boden LA, Anderson GA, Charles JA, Morgan KL, Morton JM, Parkin TD, Clarke AF, Slocombe RF. Equine Vet J. 2007 Sep;39(5):422-8.

Focal increased radiopharmaceutical uptake in the dorsoproximal diaphyseal region of the equine proximal phalanx. Bailey RE, Dyson SJ, Parkin TD.
Vet Radiol Ultrasound. 2007 Sep-Oct;48(5):460-6.

Descriptive analysis of retirement of Thoroughbred racehorses due to tendon injuries at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (1992-2004). Lam KH, Parkin TD, Riggs CM, Morgan KL. Equine Vet J. 2007 Mar;39(2):143-8.

[reese]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ical-to-racing

The rush to provide something will undoubtedly lead to a useless report that is nonetheless used to change industry standards. For the life of me i dont understand why statistical data is being interpreted by a British vet as opposed to you know, uh, a statistician?

In my business I'd say "its baffle them with BS.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ical-to-racing

The rush to provide something will undoubtedly lead to a useless report that is nonetheless used to change industry standards. For the life of me i dont understand why statistical data is being interpreted by a British vet as opposed to you know, uh, a statistician?

You are kidding, right? Or do you work for Blue Cross?

[pointman]

The Brittish Vet compiling stats doesn't happen to work at the University of East Anglia by any chance?

[Riot]

People actually complaining about, and dissing, TJC looking at the injury statistics for 84% of flat racing in North America for the past year.

Unbelievable.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Riot

People actually complaining about, and dissing, TJC looking at the injury statistics for 84% of flat racing in North America for the past year.

Unbelievable.

Not that shocking, actually, when you consider the kinds of things the researchers have reported thus far:

After months of monitoring in Hong Kong, they have identified some significant risk factors for horses that are at risk for suffering a bowed tendon.

Number 1 risk factor?

Previous bowed tendon.

Dig deeper, Dr. Watson...

[Riot]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not that shocking, actually, when you consider the kinds of things the researchers have reported thus far:

After months of monitoring in Hong Kong, they have identified some significant risk factors for horses that are at risk for suffering a bowed tendon.

Number 1 risk factor?

Previous bowed tendon.

Dig deeper, Dr. Watson...

What's your point? You think objective research into the health and safety of the TB racehorse is wasted? Useless?

No wonder this industry is falling apart from the inside out.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Riot

What's your point? You think objective research into the health and safety of the TB racehorse is wasted? Useless?

No wonder this industry is falling apart from the inside out.

Are you on you on your high horse or a high chair here?

Nobody said that the research was useless. But what sort of response do you think your going to get on a horse racing message from an ill-timed status report that let's us know they need about 5 more years before they can get viable information?

Becht, M., & Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M. (2002). Crying and mood change: A cross-cultural study. Cognition and Emotion, 16, 81–101.

Bylsma, L.M., Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M., & Rottenberg, J. (in press). When is crying cathartic? An international study. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology.

Cornelius, R.R. (2001). Crying and catharsis. In A.J.J.M. Vingerhoets & R.R.
Cornelius (Eds.), Adult crying: A biopsychosocial approach (pp. 199–212).
Hove, UK: Routledge.

Gross, J.J., Fredrickson, B.F., & Levenson, R.W. (1994).The psychophysiology of crying. Psychophysiology, 31, 460–468.

Hendriks, M.C.P., Rottenberg, J., & Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M. (2007). Can the distress-signal and arousal-reduction views of crying be reconciled? Evidence from the cardiovascular system. Emotion, 7, 458–463.

Lutz, T. (1999). Crying. The natural and cultural history of tears. New York: Norton Nelson, J.K. (2005). Seeing through tears: Crying and attachment. New York: Brunner-Routledge.

Rottenberg, J., Gross, J.J., Wilhelm, F.H., Najmi, S., & Gotlib, I.H. (2002). Crying threshold and intensity in major depressive disorder. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 302–312.

Rottenberg, J., Wilhelm, F.H., Gross, J.J., & Gotlib, I.H. (2003). Vagal rebound during resolution of tearful crying episodes among depressed and nondepressed individuals. Psychophysiology, 40, 1–6.

Rottenberg, J., Cevaal, A., & Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M. (2008). Do mood disorders alter crying? A pilot investigation. Depression and Anxiety, 25, E9–E15.

Rottenberg, J., Bylsma, L.M., Wolvin, V., & Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M. (2008). Tears of sorrow, tears of joy: An individual differences approach to crying in Dutch females. Personality and Individual Differences, 45, 367–372.

Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M. & Bylsma, L.M. (2007). Crying as a multifaceted health psychology conceptualisation: Crying as coping, risk factor, and symptom. The European Health Psychologist, 9, 68–74.

[Riot]

Are you on you on your high horse or a high chair here?

Nobody said that the research was useless. But what sort of response do you think your going to get on a horse racing message from an ill-timed status report that let's us know they need about 5 more years before they can get viable information?

You and Chuck are sad. Before they have even looked at what they've assembled through 2009, before they have released one iota about what they've found, the rocket scientists here have already dismissed it as premature, rushed, useless, ill-timed, and a failure.

Yeah. And I'm the crybaby? You whiners are complaining about something not even done yet. Pre-emptive dismissal.

The laughable part is that if they didn't release anything, the whiners would be complaining they are hiding something, it's a waste of time, it's useless, etc.

Yup. No wonder this industry is eating itself apart from the inside out.

[Honu]

I wonder how they ever managed to race horses in the past without all this data..........oh yeah thats right horses didnt break down back then and everybody just used hay, oats and water.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Honu

I wonder how they ever managed to race horses in the past without all this data..........oh yeah thats right horses didnt break down back then and everybody just used hay, oats and water.

Yes, advances in veterinary medicine, and the health and welfare of the TB racehorse, suck.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by Riot

Yes, advances in veterinary medicine, and the health and welfare of the TB racehorse, suck.

I didnt say it sucked but there sure was alot of racing done before data and people doing research. I know the key to not having bleeders and having sound thoroughbreds..........DONT RACE THEM!
Its not rocket science , check your horses legs , if your not sure and need more information consult the vet , get them to xray , nuclear scan whatever.
DONT RACE THEM if they are limping.... if you can help it. Try and get them really fit for competition , just like a human athlete and agaiin if they limp try and not train them or race them if you can help it.

[Riot]

Honu, I think we have become so far removed from being an agricultural society, that a basic level of "animal common sense", as you relate, probably doesn't exist any more to any great extent.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by Riot

Honu, I think we have become so far removed from being an agricultural society, that a basic level of "animal common sense", as you relate, probably doesn't exist any more to any great extent.

Do you really think the non-common sense people are going to read the data anyway , Im just sayin.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Riot

You and Chuck are sad. Before they have even looked at what they've assembled through 2009, before they have released one iota about what they've found, the rocket scientists here have already dismissed it as premature, rushed, useless, ill-timed, and a failure.

Yeah. And I'm the crybaby? You whiners are complaining about something not even done yet. Pre-emptive dismissal.

The laughable part is that if they didn't release anything, the whiners would be complaining they are hiding something, it's a waste of time, it's useless, etc.

Yup. No wonder this industry is eating itself apart from the inside out.

I am sad because they are rushing to throw together "something" instead of doing it right. And doing it right would be letting an independent person study and interpret the data, an independent person that can analyze the numbers as a statistical evaluation. Like I said before, a professional statistician. The "data" is just that. It doesnt matter if it is broken legs or sloppy tracks or passed balls and stolen bases. Having a vet interpret the data after 1 year seems like a mistake in that conclusions may be drawn that simply arent valid.

The industry has already made the mistake of trying to interpret breakdown stats on a month by moth or meet by meet basis. There simply isnt enough data and too many variables until you have the proper amount of data. This is basic mathmatics.

The reason that this industry has issues is that everybody has had their head up their asses forever and now instead of properly doing things it rushes to judgement as it is doing here.

No one would complain about the "reports" not being released until they were told they existed. The fact is that one years worth of data (incomplete data at that) really cant be very telling can it?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I am sad because they are rushing to throw together "something" instead of doing it right. And doing it right would be letting an independent person study and interpret the data, an independent person that can analyze the numbers as a statistical evaluation. Like I said before, a professional statistician. The "data" is just that. It doesnt matter if it is broken legs or sloppy tracks or passed balls and stolen bases. Having a vet interpret the data after 1 year seems like a mistake in that conclusions may be drawn that simply arent valid.

The industry has already made the mistake of trying to interpret breakdown stats on a month by moth or meet by meet basis. There simply isnt enough data and too many variables until you have the proper amount of data. This is basic mathmatics.

The reason that this industry has issues is that everybody has had their head up their asses forever and now instead of properly doing things it rushes to judgement as it is doing here.

No one would complain about the "reports" not being released until they were told they existed. The fact is that one years worth of data (incomplete data at that) really cant be very telling can it?

Actually it reps the past year not the future

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Actually it reps the past year not the future

Fine. What can you compare it to?

The problem is these organizations in a usually desperate attempt to do "something" will impose some new regulations or standards using one year worth of data without any knowledge if it is bad or good. I have no issue with what they are doing other than it should have been started a long time ago. What i do have a problem is using incomplete or faulty data to change rules like they did with the shoes. The ironic part about that is different tracks STILL have different rules about the toe grabs.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Honu

Do you really think the non-common sense people are going to read the data anyway , Im just sayin.

True, but what about the best of both worlds?

When I was a teenager, the old horsemen used to drench colic horses with a turpentine/linseed oil mixture. No wonder so many did poorly!

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I am sad because they are rushing to throw together "something" instead of doing it right.

This is the part I don't understand. Why is it "rushing" to release what they have from the first year? Why do you think it isn't being "done right"?

Obviously if further accumulation of stats changes things, that will be apparent, too. Science isn't a static discipline. You can't overinterpret, but there will rarely be a day you can say, "Okay, we've waited long enough, and in hindsight, this is concrete".

Maybe in physics. That gravity thing seems pretty solid.