11/22: Aqueduct ($44k C/O)

[Kasept]

Took offbeat approaches to the P4 opps Saturday, and bad structure cost me a particularly big payoff at Aqueduct. There were a few premises going into the sequence including seeming certainty Academy Run in the 9th, a likely winner in the Discovery in Gone Astray, a wide open turf ALW in the 7th and a confusing MSW in the 6th.

Tried a $2 6x6x1x1 gambit looking to survive the 6th and catch a price in the 7th. But the MSW turned out to be straightforward, and going wide there proved costly when plausible Haynesfield upset Gone Astray in the feature. Codeword ($40) had ideally juiced up the skien in 7th, so when Academy Run came through to end the day, a $2,276 Pick 4 prize was waiting for game gauntlet goers. That was a fine reward for the sequence.

At Churchill, the AE draw-in upsetter Flavor ($39.60) quashed my pressing try of what looked like a very chalky quartet. To be honest, at least to me, the $444 P4 return doesn't seem worth the kind of investment it would have taken to get the Joe Woodard trainee on your ticket after $5 Jackpot Joanie, $3.40 Custom for Carlos and $9.40 Acoma.

So all in all, a frustrating Saturday... Hope you did OK despite my miscues. $44,700 carryover at the Big A Sunday which is my focus... There is a $21k sextet pot building at Churchill too.


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Wild News 9-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #6 Victoria Lynn 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Capitalism at Risk 4-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Seville 6-1 8th


5th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Idle Gossip 8-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #5 Triple Double Kidd 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Picnic Rock 3-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Out Nice Them 5-1 5th


6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Early Argument 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Thousand Excuses 5-1 5th
Next Best: #10 One Nice Cat 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #12 Johannesburg Smile 8-1 4th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Paniolo 5-1 7th
Best Value: #2 See the U.S.A. 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Trippo 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Mr. Vegas 15-1 WON ($19.20)


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Stevil 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 East End Trap 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brady Baby 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Free Country 5-1 9th


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Lady's Wish 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Dr Paula Moynahan 5-1
Exotics Use: #1e Rice entry 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Mynia 15-1


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 10
6: 3-4-5-6-10-12
7: 2-4
8: 7-8
9: 1-3-6-10

1x1x6x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-10-12
7: 2-4
8: 7-8
9: 1-3-6-10

4x2x2x4 = $64


Good luck!
Steve