First Timer in Maiden Claimer Question

[hockey2315]

I’ve been wondering about something for a while and was hoping someone (Chuck maybe) could give some insight.

I’ll use Race 7 at Calder today as my example - a $32K claimer for two-year-old fillies. Here’s the chart: http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=20090614&RN=7

The 2, Dreaming Prayers, was a first time starter for trainer Jose Garoffalo - who was 0-for-27 in 2009 before the race. Her works didn’t hint at any ability, and she only sold for $12K ($10,500 less than her sire Songandaprayer’s stud fee). Her dam finished off the board in her only career start and this was her first foal to race.

Despite her lack of appeal, or at least unclear ability based strictly on the PPs, Dreaming Prayers was sent off at even money (lower for much of the betting) and won in hand by 9, the easiest of winners. Granted, there wasn’t much apparent talent in the race and she had a few things going for her (sire good w/ FTS, 5F work, very high T/J stats, and a high Tomlinson), but there was NO possible way that she deserved to be even money if all you had to go on was the program or even other more sophisticated information. The only rational explanation for her odds and her subsequent performance that makes any sense is that she took a large amount “barn money” or whatever you want to call it. Based strictly on the action she took, it would be a pretty fair assumption to expect her to run well or exceedingly well for the level and she ran like a horse that was ready and “supposed to win.”

So, my question is, would it be possible or feasible to watch for these types of clues on the board and claim a horse like this? Would the potential reward outweigh the risk (I’m sure there’s always a risk that she was ready to win TODAY, but could fall apart tomorrow)? Is the barn involved risking losing a potentially lucrative prospect by revealing their hand at the windows? Obviously I realize that this horse isn’t going to turn out to be champion or anything, but it would seem that she is surely worth a fair amount more than the $32K you could have taken her for today and I’d be shocked if she doesn’t earn a lot more than that in her career barring an injury or some other unforeseen circumstance. Is this even a possible logistically with the way claims are made? I kind of doubt it. Just something I’ve always been curious about. . .

[3kings]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I’ve been wondering about something for a while and was hoping someone (Chuck maybe) could give some insight.

I’ll use Race 7 at Calder today as my example - a $32K claimer for two-year-old fillies. Here’s the chart: http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=20090614&RN=7

The 2, Dreaming Prayers, was a first time starter for trainer Jose Garoffalo - who was 0-for-27 in 2009 before the race. Her works didn’t hint at any ability, and she only sold for $12K ($10,500 less than her sire Songandaprayer’s stud fee). Her dam finished off the board in her only career start and this was her first foal to race.

Despite her lack of appeal, or at least unclear ability based strictly on the PPs, Dreaming Prayers was sent off at even money (lower for much of the betting) and won in hand by 9, the easiest of winners. Granted, there wasn’t much apparent talent in the race and she had a few things going for her (sire good w/ FTS, 5F work, very high T/J stats, and a high Tomlinson), but there was NO possible way that she deserved to be even money if all you had to go on was the program or even other more sophisticated information. The only rational explanation for her odds and her subsequent performance that makes any sense is that she took a large amount “barn money” or whatever you want to call it. Based strictly on the action she took, it would be a pretty fair assumption to expect her to run well or exceedingly well for the level and she ran like a horse that was ready and “supposed to win.”

So, my question is, would it be possible or feasible to watch for these types of clues on the board and claim a horse like this? Would the potential reward outweigh the risk (I’m sure there’s always a risk that she was ready to win TODAY, but could fall apart tomorrow)? Is the barn involved risking losing a potentially lucrative prospect by revealing their hand at the windows? Obviously I realize that this horse isn’t going to turn out to be champion or anything, but it would seem that she is surely worth a fair amount more than the $32K you could have taken her for today and I’d be shocked if she doesn’t earn a lot more than that in her career barring an injury or some other unforeseen circumstance. Is this even a possible logistically with the way claims are made? I kind of doubt it. Just something I’ve always been curious about. . .

Do you know anthing about the owners? Horses in big partnerships tend to take a lot of money.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Do you know anthing about the owners? Horses in big partnerships tend to take a lot of money.

Don't think that's it. . . Magnificent Six Stables LTD - never heard of them and nothing showing up in a google search.

[herkhorse]

Can you enter a claim on a horse right up to post time?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Can you enter a claim on a horse right up to post time?

I don't think so, in Illinois, you have to have the claim in with 10 MTP

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I’ve been wondering about something for a while and was hoping someone (Chuck maybe) could give some insight.

I’ll use Race 7 at Calder today as my example - a $32K claimer for two-year-old fillies. Here’s the chart: http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=20090614&RN=7

The 2, Dreaming Prayers, was a first time starter for trainer Jose Garoffalo - who was 0-for-27 in 2009 before the race. Her works didn’t hint at any ability, and she only sold for $12K ($10,500 less than her sire Songandaprayer’s stud fee). Her dam finished off the board in her only career start and this was her first foal to race.

Despite her lack of appeal, or at least unclear ability based strictly on the PPs, Dreaming Prayers was sent off at even money (lower for much of the betting) and won in hand by 9, the easiest of winners. Granted, there wasn’t much apparent talent in the race and she had a few things going for her (sire good w/ FTS, 5F work, very high T/J stats, and a high Tomlinson), but there was NO possible way that she deserved to be even money if all you had to go on was the program or even other more sophisticated information. The only rational explanation for her odds and her subsequent performance that makes any sense is that she took a large amount “barn money” or whatever you want to call it. Based strictly on the action she took, it would be a pretty fair assumption to expect her to run well or exceedingly well for the level and she ran like a horse that was ready and “supposed to win.”

So, my question is, would it be possible or feasible to watch for these types of clues on the board and claim a horse like this? Would the potential reward outweigh the risk (I’m sure there’s always a risk that she was ready to win TODAY, but could fall apart tomorrow)? Is the barn involved risking losing a potentially lucrative prospect by revealing their hand at the windows? Obviously I realize that this horse isn’t going to turn out to be champion or anything, but it would seem that she is surely worth a fair amount more than the $32K you could have taken her for today and I’d be shocked if she doesn’t earn a lot more than that in her career barring an injury or some other unforeseen circumstance. Is this even a possible logistically with the way claims are made? I kind of doubt it. Just something I’ve always been curious about. . .

There is probably something wrong with her. A perfect example is this morning, I was talking with a jock that has ridden a horse here in Illinois that has won three in a row, very very impressively. Mdn 10k, 17nw2 (claimed off trainer) and a nw1. I was bitching that I should have claimed her for the 17 because she had some real good numbers, but he goes to me "Trust me, she isn't put together all that well"

Recently, I have realized how HARD claiming is. The people that do claim either have to have a serious reason (change of surface, equipment, rider) for it to be valid or they are looking for one race and then the drop so they can become someone else's problem. I think that the reward is far better to acquire talent as yearlings/2 year olds within the sales if you have someone with a good eye

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Scav

There is probably something wrong with her. A perfect example is this morning, I was talking with a jock that has ridden a horse here in Illinois that has won three in a row, very very impressively. Mdn 10k, 17nw2 (claimed off trainer) and a nw1. I was bitching that I should have claimed her for the 17 because she had some real good numbers, but he goes to me "Trust me, she isn't put together all that well"

Recently, I have realized how HARD claiming is. The people that do claim either have to have a serious reason (change of surface, equipment, rider) for it to be valid or they are looking for one race and then the drop so they can become someone else's problem. I think that the reward is far better to acquire talent as yearlings/2 year olds within the sales if you have someone with a good eye

Really?....congrats on starting a stable..who's your trainer going to be

[Scav]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Really?....congrats on starting a stable..who's your trainer going to be

Cynthia Gastes

[Cannon Shell]

In a mdn 32k at Calder the vast majority of horses are worth 10k or less. A lot of time the "barn" money isnt actually the barn betting. If a horse is working well the clockers will know and pass that info on. The horse is almost certainly for sale though most likely for an inflated price. Based upon the way the horse broke and was ridden it was pretty clear that they knew this horse has a ton of early speed. Most tracks have rules that you have to have a claim in by 10 to 15 minutes to post and at a track like Calder there is not much money in the win pools at that time. I claimed one first time starter who worked out ok but it is extremely risky. I had a horse claimed from me at Gulfstream a few years back first time out for $62000 because it had a couple of fast works. She never broke her maiden as far as I know.

[phystech]

Originally Posted by Scav

Recently, I have realized how HARD claiming is. The people that do claim either have to have a serious reason (change of surface, equipment, rider) for it to be valid or they are looking for one race and then the drop so they can become someone else's problem. I think that the reward is far better to acquire talent as yearlings/2 year olds within the sales if you have someone with a good eye

Claiming is very, very difficult - but I couldn't disagree with you more about your comment that "...the reward is far better to acquire talent as yearlings/2 year olds within the sales if you have someone with a good eye".

When you buy at a sale, you have very little to go on as it relates to how the horse is going to run when you eventually put it in the gate to start. With a claim, you have a lot to go on as you can see the horse's running line. It helps to have contacts at the track to get a little help with info, such as you received from your jock friend. And, in my opinion, it is most important to understand not only the trainer's racing habits, but also the owner's racing habits.

It's all about doing your homework and having an exit strategy if your claim isn't a good one. You have to have a keen understanding of the condition book, i.e., which races go and which ones don't. Your exit strategy has to incorporate your claim price as it relates to purses, i.e., how far can you drop to win a race and pray for a claim to get out and get back to or close to even.

No doubt it is a tough game but I love it because of the challenge it presents. Nothing is more rewarding than to find a horse that is running ok, has a condition or two left, understanding the horse is in a bad barn, maybe getting bad rides, and know that a little better feed program, a different training regimen and a better jock can move a horse up the few lengths it is getting beat by.

And you don't typically have to wait months and months to run and make some cake!!!!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by phystech

Claiming is very, very difficult - but I couldn't disagree with you more about your comment that "...the reward is far better to acquire talent as yearlings/2 year olds within the sales if you have someone with a good eye".

When you buy at a sale, you have very little to go on as it relates to how the horse is going to run when you eventually put it in the gate to start. With a claim, you have a lot to go on as you can see the horse's running line. It helps to have contacts at the track to get a little help with info, such as you received from your jock friend. And, in my opinion, it is most important to understand not only the trainer's racing habits, but also the owner's racing habits.

It's all about doing your homework and having an exit strategy if your claim isn't a good one. You have to have a keen understanding of the condition book, i.e., which races go and which ones don't. Your exit strategy has to incorporate your claim price as it relates to purses, i.e., how far can you drop to win a race and pray for a claim to get out and get back to or close to even.

No doubt it is a tough game but I love it because of the challenge it presents. Nothing is more rewarding than to find a horse that is running ok, has a condition or two left, understanding the horse is in a bad barn, maybe getting bad rides, and know that a little better feed program, a different training regimen and a better jock can move a horse up the few lengths it is getting beat by.

And you don't typically have to wait months and months to run and make some cake!!!!

I meant from a reward standpoint. Upside is alot smaller with horse that is claimed, compared to a yearling, at least in my opinion

[phystech]

Define "reward" for me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by phystech

Define "reward" for me.

Stakes horses....

This conversation can go many ways, but what I am trying to convey is that claiming or yearlings, it is all on what the goals are for that owner....