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#1
06-10-2009, 04:56 AM
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6/10: Belmont (4th-9th)
Hope everyone enjoyed the terrific day of racing despite my being of very little help. The challenging day turned into a bit of a struggle and chase scenario thanks to Desormeaux and Pennington being allowed to get away with murder in the 4th. Alan Garcia should be embarrassed by his performance on Expansion, and indeed apologized to McLaughlin afterwards who was plenty disgusted. That killed my early P4 and set an early negative tone.
One of the bright spots that kept the day from being dreadful, was catching a nice P3 hooking Sette E Mezzo (Likely)-Fabulous Strike (Likely)-Diamondrella (Value) together for $287 ($2). That provided some encouragement which proved short-lived when This One's for Phil failed to rally from down inside and Munnings, in whom I had zero interest, ran huge. Nice priced 'Super Add' Gabby's Golden Girl was on a few of my multi tickets, but not one with either Munnings or Summer Bird on the other ends. Lost $250 on the day, which was very frustrating given how many great prices were available in so many areas. Hope you did well! It was a perfect day at Belmont with just enough people to make it festive but not so many that it was a pain. Saw a number of DTers, Dee Teers and ATR listeners, and everyone seems particularly excited to get to Saratoga. Wednesday week-starter at Belmont is VERY challenging, so the potential for big balloons exists... BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Roaring Ghost 7-2 3rd Best Value: #9 For Love Alone 6-1 6th Next Best: #7 Fairy Wand 3-1 7th Super Add: #4 Stormie Gray 10-1 5th 5th: S/HCP, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Future Prospect 8-5 WON Best Value: #3 More Than a Reason 4-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Even Raise 9-5 2nd 6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super) Brutal, low level starter handicap with returnees and inconsistant sorts.. Most Likely: #9 Treat Her Right 7-2 6th Best Value: #7 Our Montana Dream 20-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Dose of Reality 5-2 9th Super Add: #4 Justinline 4-1 3rd 7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Hot Money 3-1 WON Best Value: #2 Cardiff Road 20-1 7th Next Best: #4 Joey's Chance 6-1 3rd Super Add: #8 Brecciate 4-1 8th 8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (DD) Best Value: #4 Torpedo Run 6-1 4th Most Likely: #1 Reptillian Smarts 7-5 3rd Next Best: #3 Mister Triester 4-1 2nd 9th: MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super) Most Likely: #4 Tawaared 6-1 3rd Best Value: #11 Courageous Cat 8-1 WON Next Best: #10 Smax 5-1 8th Super Add: #5 Dukinfield 12-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: Super tricky sequence, and the only approach that appears to make sense, is to troll for prices while swinging for the fences with single.. 6: 4-5-7-9-10 7: 2-4-6 8: 4 9: 4-5-7-10-11 5x3x1x5 = $75 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 06-10-2009 at 04:34 PM. 
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#2
06-10-2009, 08:45 AM
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I had the same up and down day, Steve. Hit the same Pick 3, which was my savior for the day, and had Munnings but not Gabby's Golden Girl and Summer Bird on the same ticket, as well. Indeed frustrating, but a fantastic day of racing nonetheless with plenty to look forward to from the likes of Just Ben, Munnings, Gio Ponti and Fabulous Strike. along with the 3yo classic horses.
Rich in Lex
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“Money, horse racing and women, three things the boys just can't figure out.” - Will Rogers
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#4
06-10-2009, 09:40 AM
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I'll take a shot at Bel
Don't care much for the first 2 races.
R3 - Both chalks look like fire sales. Dutrow's hoss just kept getting worse as he dropped her from level to level. She's back after 6 months off and Dut's trying to dump her for 15K. Same with Tagg - when he gives up on a horse, he gives her away. Let's swing for the fence - Win Millions 10/1 broke poorly in her debut but once out of the gate stayed on pace with the leaders through fast fractions for 15K claimers, then passed the field in a sustained drive down the stretch. If she breaks better she won't need that sustained drive. I'm not crazy about the jockey. Also taking a hard look at Flo's Honor 15/1 who had 3 Places before winning a MC25K last out - and Cl15K N2L is just where you'd expect her to win next. R4 - Fairy Wand covered 6Fs in 1:09.4 in last outing and that is plenty good enough to win this. Chalk but she's my top pick. Roaring Ghost would have won her debut with a clean trip. Don't know if she's fast enough or if she can handle the grass but I like her effort in that race. Linda Rice brings in Ten Carrot Nikki for her first effort on grass. Same questions as with Ghost but I remember Rice's success in turf sprints at The Spa a couple years back. Adding those to the pk-3 R5 - Even Raise - chalk but has to be the top pick - it doesn't matter if there's a quick pace or a slow one - he sit's right behind the leader then pounces down the stretch. R6 - One of the top two will probably win - I don't want to rely on three singles in a row in the pk-3s so I'll tag both. R7 - Hot Money's pace figs in his mdn win are equal to the pars for this level. He seemed to like the surface and the turf is where Clement does his best work. R8 - Tough call in here for me. Mr Triester likes the distance (6 for 12) and will be trying to wire the field. Levine's not doing well at the meet and just maybe he'll break through with this one because Levine is best with early speed. Coal Play will probably try to keep Mr T company around the track but I think he has less of a chance to prevail because he looks like he's better going longer. Raptilian Smarts sounds like a sobriquet for his trainer. D Dutrow claims him for $15k then reels off 5 straight wins as he climbs the class ladder - just missing his 6th straight while trying this level. He has the running style to take advantage of a speed duel and there's a good chance there will be one. Gotta use him in the pk-3s. R9 - Chalk Boots Ahead's only try on turf was last and got caught a couple strides before the wire, but what looked like a show of staying power was really the result of slow early fractions (:49) meaning he wasn't as good as he looked. I think there's some opportunity to cash a nice ticket here if I'm right. I'm going with 8/1 Courageous Cat whose 2 races this year were encouraging as he was able to stay close to the pace for 6Fs in both races - and his first career race was as a 2 yr old on turf where he covered 6Fs in 1:09.8 which is very encouraging. He has a high BRIS turf potential fig (119) and an excellent turf trainer in Mott and good turf jock (22%) in Kent D. 8/1 just makes him look that much better. Will add Peace Wine to the pk-3s tic if he goes - went hd & hd almost all the way to the wire last out and has a good turf potential fig (110). Not wild about Weaver's 5% record and Coa is also named on Boots so this one will probably scratch.
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#5
06-10-2009, 10:20 AM
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BELMONT - 6/10
Track: MUDDY Turf: YEILDING Turf Races: 4, 6, 7, 9 Inner: Set at 27 Ft Widener: Set at 18 Ft DAILY NOTES RACE # 1 - OFF TURF RACE #4 - MOVED TO INNER TURF SCRATCHES 1 1 (poe) Classic Love Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW, TRIFECTA, or SUPERFECTA 2 Delta Weekend Early 3 Cori's Star Early 5 Artistic Talent Early 6 Kaleigh Rose Early 8 Fourth Chapter Early 10 Decorated Court Early 2 1A Smarty Karakorum Early 7 Glen Early 6 11 Kanwicat Early 12 Driven by Seattle Early 7 1 Slick Wheelie Early 11 System Restore Early 8 1A Pictural Early 9 1A Silver Jazz Early 2 (poe) Boots Ahead Early 3 In My Prayers Early 6 Chromospere Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
06-10-2009, 11:13 AM
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Am I the only one who likes Smart Enuf?
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#7
06-10-2009, 11:16 AM
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#9
06-10-2009, 11:30 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 06-10-2009 at 11:41 AM.
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#10
06-10-2009, 11:47 AM
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I'm thinking Smart Enuf needs one coming off of the shelf, although one can construe his work string as he's ready to fire. Will be on one of my tickets.
I'm drawing a line through Cardiff Road's last, and hope he will improve 2nd off the bench. His 2nd race back at this distance may be good enough to take this, even if it is a full year ago.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#11
06-10-2009, 11:57 AM
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I'll throw one out there for the 7th, Key Victory. Made a premature but nice move to make the lead last out at 32-1 while very wide the whole time, gets a positive rider switch and a couple decent works in between. think he's got a real shot at the 20-1 ML.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#13
06-10-2009, 12:00 PM
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Smart Enuff is possible however he's shortening up to a sprint and I'm just not sure he's going to have enough pace to run at in this one. I'm not a huge backer of betting on Leo O'Brien trained horses but I like to use an angle on turf courses with cut in it, and Pegasus Tommy D. looks like he might have the advantage here with this angle.
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#14
06-10-2009, 12:01 PM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#16
06-10-2009, 12:07 PM
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Very interesting. I realize most here probably think Fairy Wand (R3) is a plug. I notice that she's cutting back, yet again, today and the very sage Albertrani is removing the blinkers. Now, Ramon has BLOWN 2 races on this filly by not being able to keep her on righty lead, and thus, running straight, in the lane. And, the reason she won't stay righty/straight is because she, apparently, doesn't like the whip. In other words, Ramon should've know from her race on 5/1 that she doesn't like being whipped and not hit her last out. YET, they try to fix the problem by removing the blinkers. I wonder if Ramon sticks her today.
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#17
06-10-2009, 12:39 PM
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Fats.. She's in the 4th. I thought she was OK here. Used her in the early P4 anyway...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#18
06-10-2009, 01:16 PM
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Smart Enuf
I usually agree that when a horse comes back at a shorter distance than he had been running prior to the lay-off that he's almost always a play against as we're supposed to believe that it's merely a prep for longer, but I think it's dangerous to come to that conclusion without considering what the horse's prior performances tell us about his potential abilities at shorter distances. Smart Enuf has shown enough early speed in his races (albeit when the pace has been kind of slow) to lead me to believe that Donk is spotting his horse where he thinks he can win - not merely where he thinks he will get a good workout. Donk's numbers with horses coming off long lay-offs and turning back on turf are a bit perplexing - he's 0-for-5 but has hit the board 4/5 times. I think you can point to that stat both in favor and against Smart Enuf's chances. If he's around 8-1 I think it's +EV to expect SE to be ready to win here.
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#19
06-10-2009, 01:35 PM
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Fairy Wand will probably be tough in the 4th, but I'm willing to give the 3 a second chance at 18-1, basically treating her as a first time starter.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#20
06-10-2009, 01:37 PM
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Linear Mode
