MTB An Underlay

[randallscott35]

You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.

overlay or underlay - he jogged randall , if you bet him to win once calvin got though the hole on the rail you were a winner and didn't even have to sweat

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by gales0678

overlay or underlay - he jogged randall , if you bet him to win once calvin got though the hole on the rail you were a winner and didn't even have to sweat

Not the point. It was a great performance. I'm simply saying he was not Arcangues like value and he could've been.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not the point. It was a great performance. I'm simply saying he was not Arcangues like value and he could've been.

randall how many horses had run over a muddy track? (besides ff and desert party i don't remember any others)did anyone really know what any of these 3 yr olds were going to do in this slop, were any of the prep races in the mud?


he got a clean trip , compared to the others , the jock saved a ton of ground , and maybe he loved the off?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by gales0678

randall how many horses had run over a muddy track? (besides ff and desert party i don't remember any others)did anyone really know what any of these 3 yr olds were going to do in this slop, were any of the prep races in the mud?


he got a clean trip , compared to the others , the jock saved a ton of ground , and maybe he loved the off?

We are having two different conversations.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We are having two different conversations.

I wrote this on another thread. He should have been over 100/1.
But when you have a Derby where a horse who ran a mere 3 times was 5/1, anything is possible. Giacomo was 50/1 and he had far more to go on than Mind a Bird.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We are having two different conversations.

i hear waht you are saying , based on his PP's he should have paid $300+ dollars if you bet $2 to win - that would have been fairer value than the $105 , what he actually paid ,so a strict numbers/value palyer would never have played the horse

my guess is that it's the derby , people bet numbers , people might have made a bet on calvin just as their favorite jock , who knows, perhaps if IWR was in the race he would have went off higher

[Riot]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.

The "Bet Barbaro's Pink Eight Blanket In Memory" ontrack crowd Friday and Saturday. That might just be the difference

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.

I thought he was a big underlay, too. I had him at a mere 100-1 in my own line. Pinnacle was offering 200-1 on Friday, as I posted in this thread: http://derbytrail.com/forums/showthr...t=28920&page=2 At those odds I thought he was an overlay.

As for the value in the win parimutuals, I thought Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back and Flying Private had value. Not a very impressive group with hindsight.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I thought he was a big underlay, too. I had him at a mere 100-1 in my own line. Pinnacle was offering 200-1 on Friday, as I posted in this thread: http://derbytrail.com/forums/showthr...t=28920&page=2 At those odds I thought he was an overlay.

As for the value in the win parimutuals, I thought Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back and Flying Private had value. Not a very impressive group with hindsight.

--Dunbar

Wow, 200-1. I saw 150-1.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Wow, 200-1. I saw 150-1.

randle the double with a lead pipe cinch increased your odds to 118 / 1 from 50/1 - was this better value ?