4/16: Keeneland (P4); Santa Anita (C/O)

[Kasept]

Thought I was on to a potentially nice P4 run Wednesday at KEE when wide net in the opener caught one of several several big prices on the afternoon. But the tricky sequence dashed hopes immediately after, and lone solace was the 6th race exotics. Hope you did OK. Trying again today, plus there is a nice Carryover to attack at Santa Anita...


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Waccamaw 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 I'm From Dixie 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Nicole's Passion 10-1 9th
Super Add: #11 She's From Queens 6-1 7th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Syriana's Song 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Venetian Causeway 5-2 WON
Next Best: #1 Dress Parade 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Sweet Tune 6-1 6th


8th: 21st Appalachian (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Terrific betting race..

Best Value: #9 Obsequious 6-1 7th
Most Likely: #10 SCR
Next Best: #7 Simplify 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Hot Cha Cha 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Abbott Hall 8-1 5th


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #1 Sharpsburg Shuffle 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Prime Choice 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Safety Call 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Forest Tour 5-1 8th
High 5 Play: #10 Cowboy at Heart 6-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-8
7: 1-2-3-4-7
8: 4-5-7-9-10
9: 1-7-9

2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Omega Minister 5-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Coastal Souvenir 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Mt. Davidson 6-1 5th


4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Satellite 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Spot the Diplomat 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 My Friend Luis 7-2 4th

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $26.20


5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pat the Cool Cat 5-2 WON
Best Value: #4 SCR
Next Best: #5 That's Hot 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 SCR


6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Zaya 10-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Mud Sweat 'n Tears 2-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Sam's Queen 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Red Neck Gal 6-1 3rd


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f-DHT (DD)

Most Likely: #7 ON APPROVAL 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Wind Caper 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Starlarks 5-2 2nd


8th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #4 Afleet Magic 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Action in May 7-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Astoria Renter 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Sunday Paper 10-1 9th
High 5 Play: #2 Manifest Destiny 6-1 4th


<$300 P6 Play:

3: 5-6-7
4: 2-3-7
5: 3-4/SCR
6: 3-7
7: 7
8: 4-8

3x3x(1+SCR)x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 3-(4/SCR)-5
6: 1-3-4-7
7: 2-7
8: 4-8-10

2x4x2x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[sdjcom]

minus -2774 (2009)

Kee

2) $2 ex 16/24 $2 w 5 win l/s $29.20 result 5462

4) $2 ex 25/13 $ 2 w 6 lost

6) .50 pk 4 5/27/278/1279 .50 $12 lost------------------------------------------------------------------
Santa anita

1) $ 2 ex 13/26

4) $2 ex 57/12

5) $1 pk 4 5/17/47/69

6) $2 ex 14/38 $2 w 7 .20 sup box 13478 scr 8 lost

bet $ 75 after scr won $29 minus -46 today

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thought I was on to a potentially nice P4 run Wednesday at KEE when wide net in the opener caught one of several several big prices on the afternoon.

Steve,

6: 1-2-3-4-5
7: 1-2-3-7-8
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 7


one thing I was studying last night , was what to do if you are alive with a huge shot in a multi race wager.

Now, that bomb in race 6 might not be the hugest in history because the field size wasn't that big, but it was pretty big.

One thing you can do is take like 3 others that you didn't use in your pick 4, and hedge them in a next race pick3 with 5 horses in the other legs (whose base would be your original opinion)
like
7: 7,9,11
8: 2-4-5-6 7 (I missed the 3 Libor Lady too )
9: 7 5,8,9,11
cost =$75
What i did was add the other horses to get to 3x5x5 straight from the lowest odds (you would have to handicap or use ml odds if lazy)

they say the track is a terrible place to buy insurance
and my example above sucks because Libor Lady screws you in the 8th race regardless-( unless you liked her enough to use), but I thought it was an interesting thought for the types of things you consider when you have a live pick 4 with a bomb

Jay

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Steve,

6: 1-2-3-4-5
7: 1-2-3-7-8
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 7


one thing I was studying last night , was what to do if you are alive with a huge shot in a multi race wager.

Now, that bomb in race 6 might not be the hugest in history because the field size wasn't that big, but it was pretty big.

One thing you can do is take like 3 others that you didn't use in your pick 4, and hedge them in a next race pick3 with 5 horses in the other legs (whose base would be your original opinion)
like
7: 7,9,11
8: 2-4-5-6 7 (I missed the 3 Libor Lady too )
9: 7 5,8,9,11
cost =$75
What i did was add the other horses to get to 3x5x5 straight from the lowest odds (you would have to handicap or use ml odds if lazy)

they say the track is a terrible place to buy insurance
and my example above sucks because Libor Lady screws you in the 8th race regardless-( unless you liked her enough to use), but I thought it was an interesting thought for the types of things you consider when you have a live pick 4 with a bomb

Jay

your idea is on the right track but not quite accurate, you actually need to play 3 tickets to cover yourself for a 3/4 payout. in this case it would have been:
4,5,9,10,11/2,4,5,6/7
1,2,3,7,8/1,3,7/7
1,2,3,7,8/2,4,5,6/all but the 7

net cost = $20 + $15 + $200 = $235. obviously you can slim down the last leg if you want to dump some of the no-hopers (and just bet them to win if you get to that point).

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

your idea is on the right track but not quite accurate, you actually need to play 3 tickets to cover yourself for a 3/4 payout. in this case it would have been:
4,5,9,10,11/2,4,5,6/7
1,2,3,7,8/1,3,7/7
1,2,3,7,8/2,4,5,6/all but the 7

net cost = $20 + $15 + $200 = $235. obviously you can slim down the last leg if you want to dump some of the no-hopers (and just bet them to win if you get to that point).

that's another to do it, if you are willing to spend more bankroll. Maybe a better way if you have a large bankroll when you have a big shot in the first leg.

yesterday the 9-3-9 still evades you, and costs $160 extra bankroll

I would probably rather spend the extra $ beefing up legs 2 and 3 for the 8th and 9th, and I wouldn't spend $ to play the 1,2,3,7or8 in the 7th race at all. The point is hedging the live ticket , not trying to hit the individual pick 3 from scratch.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

that's another to do it, if you are willing to spend more bankroll. Maybe a better way if you have a large bankroll when you have a big shot in the first leg.

yesterday the 9-3-9 still evades you, and costs $160 extra bankroll

Correct, however the purpose of the hedge would be against hitting 3 out of 4. If you only have 2 out of 4, you're losing money- end of story- there really isn't a way out.

[VOL JACK]

Hot Cha Cha.....She did me right last time a big price. I think she will drift up to the 10 12-1 range today.

[Kasept]

Have to run to Saratoga to the track, so any further KEE changes may not get done. Nothing major in terms of changes though Leparoux picks up Fast Tigress..

http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...lItemsalt.aspx

[ironprospect]

1..2..4..6..7

3..5

1..7

2..3..4..5..7

.50/$50

[jms62]

Early P4 keying off Ward firster

1,2,4,6,7/1,2,3,5,7,9/1,2,4,5,7/3 * .50 = 75
2,4,7/1,5,9/1,2,7/3 1.00 = 27

[jms62]

Originally Posted by jms62

Early P4 keying off Ward firster

1,2,4,6,7/1,2,3,5,7,9/1,2,4,5,7/3 * .50 = 75
2,4,7/1,5,9/1,2,7/3 1.00 = 27

LOLO 5 ****ing horses and I can't hit the leg. **** Keeneland

[philcski]

I like the looks of this 5 on track a lot.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

5th

$5 pic 3

3
4,8,11
1,7

$30

I need your help tormenting Druglas upstairs and you're busy here... show dutching.

[MaTH716]

late pick 4
5,8,11
4,7,8
1,4,9,10
1,3,7,9

.50 play= $72

[Kasept]

Anyone playing Atlantic City? 13 MTP... Just good to see it on the menu!

[philcski]

Betfair notes on the 6th... Everything relatively inline except the 3, who is basically given no shot. 46/50 vs 16 on the tote. 8 getting good support.

[MaTH716]

What is he now 2 for 62?
someone better remind him where the winners circle is.

Un F'n believable!

[jms62]

Garcia needs to be taken out and shot. Falls asleep in the saddle and gets beat at the wire... Keeneland simply is unplayable for me.

[philcski]

that was a huge performance from the 10. Nobody has been closing well on this track all day...

[jms62]

Yeah... Was it the 9th or 8th place finish in the last 2 that excited people to play him...