I suck at handicapping contests

[philcski]

Went to the Keeneland DRF/NTRA qualifier on Saturday. Did terrible, again. I think I've played 10 of these now in this format ($2 WP, 15 races, 8 mandatory) and never really even threatened the money in any of them. Anybody with experience have any good suggestions on the best way to approach this (standard contest) format?

[TheSpyder]

My friend got to Vegas and he said it's about bringing in the long shots, hardly ever played chalk.

As to your post, I suck at handicapping too most all the time.

I know there's a few here that have done well on contests so they can add something more than I.

[GBBob]

Phil can out handicap me blindfolded and if I knew the winners in advance. For me, it was just getting hot at the right time.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by philcski

Went to the Keeneland DRF/NTRA qualifier on Saturday. Did terrible, again. I think I've played 10 of these now in this format ($2 WP, 15 races, 8 mandatory) and never really even threatened the money in any of them. Anybody with experience have any good suggestions on the best way to approach this (standard contest) format?

You need a first or last mentality. You simply can not grind it out. It is not about who you think will win the race but who has a chance at a price.. And when you hit a price you keep trying for more prices; because when a price hits you can be sure someone is on it.

[NTamm1215]

Bob's exactly right. One day it will click and you'll roll. For the longest time I was very annoyed because you almost feel like the winners of these things are just throwing a bunch of junk at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Keep on it and it'll happen.

NT

[eajinabi]

I really hate the $2 WP format. Lone Star has a very good one with Ex, Tris, Supers, and WPS bets as part of thier contest. I came second this year back in april.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jms62

You need a first or last mentality. You simply can not grind it out. It is not about who you think will win the race but who has a chance at a price.. And when you hit a price you keep trying for more prices; because when a price hits you can be sure someone is on it.

I think this is very wrong. It is very simple in these types of contests.

In the races you have to bet, you find the winners or best price (sometimes a place bet), regardless of prices. What is the point of betting a 10/1 that can win only with a perfect trip when the 2/1 favorite would dust the 10/1 95 times out of 100.

A perfect example of this is when I was in the Trackside OTB contest. The Illinois Derby was a mandatory race, I think it was the year that Greely whatever horse won. Anyways, I liked Asmussen's horse to run real big but wasn't sure if he could beat the chalk. Chalk was 2/1, so a $6 return, I figured that if the chalk won, but Assmussen's horse got 2nd, that the place bet would pay $10. and if the chalk didn't win, the place would pay $20. I bet the horse to place, the chalk won and paid $5 something, but assmussen's horse got 2nd and paid like $11.

You take chances in the ones that you don't HAVE to bet. The ones you do, you just find the best horse or the one that has the best chance at winning.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think this is very wrong. It is very simple in these types of contests.

In the races you have to bet, you find the winners or best price (sometimes a place bet), regardless of prices. What is the point of betting a 10/1 that can win only with a perfect trip when the 2/1 favorite would dust the 10/1 95 times out of 100.

A perfect example of this is when I was in the Trackside OTB contest. The Illinois Derby was a mandatory race, I think it was the year that Greely whatever horse won. Anyways, I liked Asmussen's horse to run real big but wasn't sure if he could beat the chalk. Chalk was 2/1, so a $6 return, I figured that if the chalk won, but Assmussen's horse got 2nd, that the place bet would pay $10. and if the chalk didn't win, the place would pay $20. I bet the horse to place, the chalk won and paid $5 something, but assmussen's horse got 2nd and paid like $11.

You take chances in the ones that you don't HAVE to bet. The ones you do, you just find the best horse or the one that has the best chance at winning.

^^soon to be appearing along side BTW at Las Vegas Handicapping Seminar

[Scav]

Originally Posted by GPK

^^soon to be appearing along side BTW at Las Vegas Handicapping Seminar

I am way too green yet, maybe in 20 years when I have back to back back championships under my belt

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ask stan bavlish how hard it is wins the big one then off the map next year..

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ask stan bavlish how hard it is wins the big one then off the map next year..

I have....if you remember, I spent like two hours with him in the Ballys Sportsbook the year after he won, he was in there betting and went and sat next to him and bs'ed, cool guy, but a little too hardcore for me......

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think this is very wrong. It is very simple in these types of contests.

In the races you have to bet, you find the winners or best price (sometimes a place bet), regardless of prices. What is the point of betting a 10/1 that can win only with a perfect trip when the 2/1 favorite would dust the 10/1 95 times out of 100.

A perfect example of this is when I was in the Trackside OTB contest. The Illinois Derby was a mandatory race, I think it was the year that Greely whatever horse won. Anyways, I liked Asmussen's horse to run real big but wasn't sure if he could beat the chalk. Chalk was 2/1, so a $6 return, I figured that if the chalk won, but Assmussen's horse got 2nd, that the place bet would pay $10. and if the chalk didn't win, the place would pay $20. I bet the horse to place, the chalk won and paid $5 something, but assmussen's horse got 2nd and paid like $11.

You take chances in the ones that you don't HAVE to bet. The ones you do, you just find the best horse or the one that has the best chance at winning.

I have only played contests where every race is mandatory and it is WP format so I'm doing the exact same thing that you are doing... My 10-1 horses are often horses I am looking for a place.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jms62

I have only played contests where every race is mandatory and it is WP format so I'm doing the exact same thing that you are doing... My 10-1 horses are often horses I am looking for a place.

My best finish was like 9th, and I should have won the damn thing but I was an impatient brat/bitch and after my 6th bet and I was 0 fer, I got all pissed, went up and played the next 6 races, then saw the next FIVE BETS win and I had the 6th bet already in on a 5/1 horse, where I possibly could have had the horse in the last possible race, which won at like 15/1 (GBBob had the horse)....Very salty

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have....if you remember, I spent like two hours with him in the Ballys Sportsbook the year after he won, he was in there betting and went and sat next to him and bs'ed, cool guy, but a little too hardcore for me......

i did not know that..i did however sit next to mike/bigmc at toga and my capping got better..

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i did not know that..i did however sit next to mike/bigmc at toga and my capping got better..

Mine too, but then Bigs and I got a little tipsy and I mushed him and the P6 we played.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Scav

Mine too, but then Bigs and I got a little tipsy and I mushed him and the P6 we played.

Gotta be better than splitting a Pick 4 with Ateam. He sucks

[TheSpyder]

I sat next to them and their handicapping got better..Hungarian Gent..should have followed their lead!

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i did not know that..i did however sit next to mike/bigmc at toga and my capping got better..

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am way too green yet, maybe in 20 years when I have back to back back championships under my belt

Are you planning on auditioning against Thunderdan for the Running Aces house handicapper spot?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Bigs is furiously mashing the "refresh" button on the DRF pp's page, hoping to get a leg up for opening day...I don't have the heart to tell him they won't draw until Thursday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Are you planning on auditioning against Thunderdan for the Running Aces house handicapper spot?

Running Aces? Is that a marathon or something?