Bernardini - I am tossing out

[2MinsToPost]

Not gonna use this horse in my Pick 3. Here is why (cause I am crazy ) -
Beyer Speed Figs

1-7-06 = 68
3-4-06 = 90
4-29-06 = 104
5-20-06 = 114

Now, Minister's Bid and Sunriver are the only 2 horses in this field who have a Beyer above 100, so you might be asking yourself, what is he smoking?

I think he might be setting up for what they call a bounce? In other words, and I am not sure if I used the correct term, bottom line I just think this horse used himself up on 5-20-06. I don't think their is much left in the tank, the 2 month break might be what the doctor ordered but I am going with the hottest Trainer at Saratoga right now, T Plecth and Sunriver. Also going to use the coupled 1 entry. My prediction, Bernardini takes the lead early and gets passed by the field on the stretch.

Oh well, I could be wrong.

[2MinsToPost]

Ok now I look and see a sloppy surface. Interesting.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Dont do it IMO. He's capable of running a 105-107 if he bounces. Probably wont hit the same 114 number but has had time off which somewhat decreases the bounce probability and even so he is still much better. Sunriver is heavily campaigned and has never gone higher than 102, and I dont see him pulling a big number out here. Minister's Bid has the upside with only 2 starts and Dr. Pleasure seems to like Toga even though he's well slower. Do what you want, but I wouldnt invest a lot of $ in this thing. I'd single Bernardini and go deep in the other legs, but good luck either way!

[2MinsToPost]

Dustin I see what you are saying but I am betting everyone and their Mother are singling Bernardini so I am strictly looking for value. This is a VERY cheap Pick 3 I am plaing, under $20 so no sweat for me. Honestly, I am thinking about plain everyone but Bernardini. Lady of Venice, now that is my single today. I think. Man, I better decide here soon.

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Dont do it IMO. He's capable of running a 105-107 if he bounces. Probably wont hit the same 114 number but has had time off which somewhat decreases the bounce probability and even so he is still much better. Sunriver is heavily campaigned and has never gone higher than 102, and I dont see him pulling a big number out here. Minister's Bid has the upside with only 2 starts and Dr. Pleasure seems to like Toga even though he's well slower. Do what you want, but I wouldnt invest a lot of $ in this thing. I'd single Bernardini and go deep in the other legs, but good luck either way!

[Betsy]

I have no idea what to think about Bernardini now; he may hate a sloppy track or another horse may be a mud lark. I can't express how disappointed I am

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Dustin I see what you are saying but I am betting everyone and their Mother are singling Bernardini so I am strictly looking for value. This is a VERY cheap Pick 3 I am plaing, under $20 so no sweat for me. Honestly, I am thinking about plain everyone but Bernardini. Lady of Venice, now that is my single today. I think. Man, I better decide here soon.

If you have the moeny to play then by all means throw a cheap ticket out against him. Should he win? Definitely. Will he win? Probably. But this is racing at Saratoga so anything is possible.

Here's my personal "cheap" Pick 3

R8 : 2, 4, 7
R9 : 1, 4
R10 : 7, 9, 12

3 x 2 x 3 = $18

I hate it because the 10th is off the turf, but that doesnt seem like a bad play. Good luck!

Dustin

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I have no idea what to think about Bernardini now; he may hate a sloppy track or another horse may be a mud lark. I can't express how disappointed I am

On the NYRA website, it does not say sealed, so as long as it is not sealed, he could run backwards with the gate tied to him and still win...

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I have no idea what to think about Bernardini now; he may hate a sloppy track or another horse may be a mud lark. I can't express how disappointed I am

Track doesnt look overly bad visually so I dont think it affects much.

Curt, if you're looking for some value playing, take a look at Oh So Awesome. Doesnt really fit Beyer wise, but most dont with Bernardini entered but ran well on off track on May 19 at Belmont to get 3rd in Match the Hatch S. and finished really well and then got left in the gate in the Belmont and never had a chance. Nice patented Jerkens 3 furlong work two days ago make him possible at a price.

[sumitas]

they sealed the track for the 4th race. what is going on now i dunno. i'd take Minister's Bid to upset Bernardini or play them in an exacta...but not too heavy on either.

[Scav]

If the last race is any indiction then it is going to be speed speed speed, get to the lead and win type situation. It seems that both Ward horses will have the opportunity and both are bred for the off and a route of ground.

Not sure what to do

[sumitas]

the whole field wants this win with the exception of Bernardini. he doesn't need a win here on his resume...he needs the prep...i'd go against him too.

these sprints, the outside posts are tough to overcome.

The track will be good at worst by post. Bernardini wins easily unless Ministers Bid is a freak. Nobody else will be close.

[Scav]

The last two races, both on sealed track, if you got the lead by the half, you were a winner.....not sure where to go with this the rest of the day

[2MinsToPost]

no thanks, I'll save this $20 for tomorrow. I have better feelings looking at the DRF for tomorrows card then todays. just gonna watch and enjoy.

[sumitas]

then the play is to use Bernardini on top of an exacta with a couple of longshots underneath. 4/ 3,5...again, not too heavy...

[2MinsToPost]

alright, took that $20 and put $10 win on Angara and $10 win on Sunriver. That leaves me $40 for tomorrows card. I REALLY like the card at Toga tomorrow, really goosed up for that one.

[sumitas]

ok, good way to close the card. Anagara looks tough and Sunriver has been forgotten in the glare of Bandini's spotlight.

[2MinsToPost]

nice, what a RACE!

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

alright, took that $20 and put $10 win on Angara and $10 win on Sunriver. That leaves me $40 for tomorrows card. I REALLY like the card at Toga tomorrow, really goosed up for that one.