8/6: Saratoga (Week 3; Day 1)

Kasept · #1 08-06-2008, 06:00 AM

Taking a breather Sunday paid off handsomely Monday with hits in the large, interesting early P4 of $455; chalky late quad of $113 (hit twice with SCR for $226); a pair of P6 consolations ($431 back on $288 play) and big exacta ($85) and trifecta scores ($405) in the Hall of Fame thanks to "Exotics Use" Thou Swell (20-1+). The early P4 featured 10-1+ bookends starting with Asmussen's crazily overlaid Warm Country, but the mutuel was muted by the desperate dead heat between Skipadate and Ninth Client in the 5th. The quartet was scheduled to pay $750+ ($1) but came back at $455 which at least meant avoiding the IRS window. Hope you did well.

Terrible weather forecast in store the next several days... Even with rain likely to ebb this afternoon, OFF THE TURF is likely...

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST SRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Fly the North Wind 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Clay County 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Know the Game 5-2 3rd

2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Westward Go 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Al Sheetahn 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Coastal Flare 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Exchanging Kisses 5-2 WON

3rd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Strand of Gold 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Quiet Mover 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Streetprice 20-1 6th

4th: MSW, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Good Request 8-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Sol a Pino 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1e Voss entry 6-1 5th/9th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 True Ally 5-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Buzzin and Dreamin 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 That's a Good Thing 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Retriever 10-1 9th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-7-10
3: 2-5
4: 9
5: 2-6-7-8-9

5x2x1x5 = $50

6th:NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Driven by Success 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 El Tamberito 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 New York Style 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Fourteen and Out 20-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 SCR (SCR add #8 Zensational 7-2) 4th
Best Value: #10 Royal Vindication 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Speed Limit 5-1 2nd
Super Use: #4 Winthrop House 3-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Roll the Di 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Belle's Home 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Nehantic Cat 5-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Follow My Dream 10-1 4th

9th: Cab Calloway, NYB-3yo, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cannonball 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Gold Vendetta 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Phobia 12-1 7th

OFF THE TURF: 1a-5-8

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Conduct of Honor 15-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Calagaitor 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Iron Curtain 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #3 In the Spotlight 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

AFTER SCRATCHES..

7: 4-6-8-10
8: 1-3-5-8-10
9: 1
10: 2-3-4-5

4x5x1x4 = $80

Good luck!
Steve

philcski · #2 08-06-2008, 08:13 AM

How bad did it rain overnight there?

Rudeboyelvis · #3 08-06-2008, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Conduct of Honor 15-1
Best Value: #5 Calagaitor 8-1
Next Best: #4 Iron Curtain 9-5
Super Add: #3 In the Spotlight 12-1

OFF THE TURF: 13-10-7-5

FYI - Not that you used him off the turf, but talked with Hibiscus this morning and Iron Curtain is a definate scratch if/when taken off -

blackthroatedwind · #4 08-06-2008, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

How bad did it rain overnight there?

Not bad. They're on the turf.

jms62 · #5 08-06-2008, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not bad. They're on the turf.

Question for the pro.. What are your thoughts on the quality of the last 3 cards at the spa? I can't recall 6 maiden races in a row...

CSC · #6 08-06-2008, 08:29 AM

I think Know The Game will be tough in the 1st, but does the Contessa horse have a shot on the stretchout as the pacemaker? This race is crying out for someone to be on the lead.

zippyneedsawin · #7 08-06-2008, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not bad. They're on the turf.

all the races or just the feature?

Gander · #8 08-06-2008, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

How bad did it rain overnight there?

Not much at all but the majority of the rain is coming very soon.

blackthroatedwind · #9 08-06-2008, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Question for the pro.. What are your thoughts on the quality of the last 3 cards at the spa? I can't recall 6 maiden races in a row...

I don't know.....I honestly focus less on that than most people. I think there is a misconception by many people of the overall quality of racing anywhere these days. I wouldn't have even noticed there were six straight maiden races if you hadn't mentioned it. I'm more focused on handicapping the races, forming opinions, and finding bets. I have bets in the two turf maiden races, I suppose the big favorite ( Quiet Mover ) is close to a cinch in the 3rd, and the likely second choice ( Driven by Success ) should win the 6th. As for the 2YO races.....that's what we have at Saratoga.

The 8th is an extremely interesting race.

Sunday's card was weak early and extremely strong late. Considering we are running 62 races a week ( as opposed to 46 or 47 downstate ) things are pretty good.

blackthroatedwind · #10 08-06-2008, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

all the races or just the feature?

I don't get it.

blackthroatedwind · #11 08-06-2008, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Not much at all but the majority of the rain is coming very soon.

I just laid a price we will remain fast and firm all day.

Thanks.

zippyneedsawin · #12 08-06-2008, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get it.

The question was are ALL the turf races still on, or just the feature. Sometimes they take all the turf races off except the stakes race.

blackthroatedwind · #13 08-06-2008, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

What's new.

The question was are ALL the turf races still on, or just the feature.

But I said they were on the turf....how could that mean races were off the turf?

I don't understand.

zippyneedsawin · #14 08-06-2008, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But I said they were on the turf....how could that mean races were off the turf?

I don't understand.

See above. Wasn't sure you meant "they" as all the turf races or not.

blackthroatedwind · #15 08-06-2008, 09:14 AM

I'm just kidding with you.

However, if I say the races are on the turf I mean they are all on. If some are off I would say so.

Rudeboyelvis · #16 08-06-2008, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The 8th is an extremely interesting race.

True that. I'm trying to pare that leg down to 4 and would not at all be suprised to see Party Girl win this at a very square number

#17 08-06-2008, 09:55 AM

Is there any chance Nehantic Kat goes off 4/1 or higher?

zippyneedsawin · #18 08-06-2008, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm just kidding with you.

However, if I say the races are on the turf I mean they are all on. If some are off I would say so.

I don't get it.

Kasept · #19 08-06-2008, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

True that. I'm trying to pare that leg down to 4 and would not at all be suprised to see Party Girl win this at a very square number

Dan

I'd like to get Party Girl into my plays as well. Looking for a scratch or 2 to change the equation but I'm including her in the multis.

Rudeboyelvis · #20 08-06-2008, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Is there any chance Nehantic Kat goes off 4/1 or higher?

I'm guessing post time fav, Coach. Either the oddsmaker of the morning line is on a black tar heroin high, or I'm completely dumfounded...the best horse in the race is 15-1