7/30: Saratoga (Day 7; C/O)

[Kasept]

Week 2 kicks off with a $42k carryover after Monday's wild bombfest, and Wednesday card looks challenging. Reversed a multi-year trend of starting this meet slowly before finishing strong, and am unsure how the good opening week, thanks to robust P4 hit, will impact my own play. I cannot recall getting up this much so early during Saratoga, and have a very placid mood going through cards right now. That is making me hopeful that the knowing that the meet is 'made' will result in good decision making going forward...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES...

1st: Ninepin Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Hurdles (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynaski 5-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Discreet Charmer 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 C R's Deputy 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Seer 5-1 2nd

$1 EXA Paid $13.70


2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Akilina 5-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Glory Gold 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 SCR
Super Add: #5 Sneakin Up 6-1 2nd

$1 DD Paid $8.00
$1 EXA Paid $9.00


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kapanga 4-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Queenofalldiamonds 7-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Madam Bling 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Sophisticated Lass 15-1 5th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key #7 1st-2nd-3rd with 3-5-8-9-10 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x 3 = 180 x .10 = $18.00)

$1 P3 Paid $21.70


4th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #5 Hailey's Hero 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Storm Boot Gold 2-1 WON

$1 EXA Paid $17.90
$1 P3 Paid $21.70


5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dougie 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Sweet Groom 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Ziptronic 6-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Double Domino 7-2 WON

$1 EXA Paid $22.70


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-8
3: 3-7-9
4: 5-7 ($1 P3 Paid $21.70)
5: 1-2-3-5-8-10 ($1 P3 Paid $40.50)

2x3x2x6 = $72

$1 P4 Paid $102.75


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Giant Storm 9-2 6th
Best Value: #1 SCR #7 Sky Dragon 8-1
Next Best: #9 Borobudor 8-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Into the Wind 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Veritable 5-1 10th
Best Value: #6 SCR #12 Najibe's Time 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 (POE) Frenchman's Cove 8-1 7th


8th: The De La Rose, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Carriage Trail 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 SCR #11 Long Approach 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Stormy West 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Lady Carlock 12-1 4th

$1 DD Paid $28.50


9th: The Fleet Indian, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ice Cool Kitty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sagamoon 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Talking Treasure 5-2 WON


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Valiant Humor 9-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Who Can Bluff 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 SCR #10 Tomlinson Hill 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 SCR #5 Sapphire Eyes 5-1 4th

$1 EXA Paid $15.30



<$150 P6 Play:

5: 8-10
6: 2-7-9
7: 7
8: 4
9: 1-3-7
10: 1-9-10

2x3x1x1x3x3 = 54 x $2 = $108


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-7-8-12
8: 4
9: 1-5-7 ($1 P3 Paid $59.00)
10: 1-2-5-9-10 ($1 P3 Paid $41.50)

5x1x3x5 = $75

$1 P4 Paid $170.50

Good luck!
Steve

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-8
3: 3-7-9
4: 1-5
5: 1-3-8-10

2x3x2x4 = $48

Agree wholeheartedly with you on the bookends of that pick four, but can't make heads or tails of the third or fourth.. If Kapanga had some more early speed to her, she'd be a single for me, but I'm worried she'll be at the mercy of the frontrunners.

[blackthroatedwind]

You agree on the bookends?

Congratulations.....you have outdone yourself for saying that First Defence was better than Commentator. The last leg is a field of 12 NYBs, 10 of which are first time starters, trying the turf for the first time ( save the Leo O'Brien horse ) yet you " wholeheartedly " agree with Steve's four selections?

Which one of you is Kreskin?

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me just add that I had to make four selections for Talking Horses tomorrow....and not one of my picks are the same as Steve's. Now, that's no criticism of Steve, and may be a good sign for him, but it does point out the total randomness of " handicapping " that race.

But, what do I know, as you are confident in that race but confused in the others.

If Bobby Frankel saw this thread two plus months ago you would have saved him a lot of trouble and First Defence could have been frolicing in a field for some time now.

[ateamstupid]

I understand that the fifth is a scrum, but I found it interesting that I chose the same four horses Steve did. That's all.

I feel comfortable using those four horses in the pick four, and the $16,000 claimer confuses me. Sorry if that bothers you.

I thought First Defence would develop into a top flight sprinter and I was wrong. I wish you wouldn't act like nothing I say has merit because of that wrong opinion, but if you feel the need to invalidate everything I say, go ahead.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

5 - 3, 5, 8
6 - 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
7 - 8, 10, 11, 12
8 - 4
9 - 1, 5, 7
10 - 3, 4, 9

$1080

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I understand that the fifth is a scrum, but I found it interesting that I chose the same four horses Steve did. That's all.

I feel comfortable using those four horses in the pick four, and the $16,000 claimer confuses me. Sorry if that bothers you.

I thought First Defence would develop into a top flight sprinter and I was wrong. I wish you wouldn't act like nothing I say has merit because of that wrong opinion, but if you feel the need to invalidate everything I say, go ahead.

I loved the highlighted part. Stick to the tough guy routine....it suits you much better.

I get it.....and if you guys found the same random four horses it is pretty funny ( and statistically amazing ). It's pretty amazing that I landed on four completely different horses as well. It's also funny that I included Saratoga Steve.....and neither of you guys did. For what it's worth, his second dam was a strong turf move up producer, and I am particularly partial to her foals as I made a score on one a few years ago when Mig won with her at 30:1 in its turf debut. The horse was Faraway Legend but you probably remember her sister, Call Nine One One, a little better. Western Fable is a full to two or three turf winners and the dam of Mr. Petersson won 123K on the turf while going 5 for 9 on that surface. He's also a half to Exonerated who exploded in his turf debut...sprinting at Belmont a couple of months ago.

That's a reasonable amount of turf breeding for a NY Bred 2YO turf sprint and also three tough horses to completely leave out of any play. One, or even two, maybe....but all three?

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me also add that Dougie is a terrible guppy-like play in a race like this. As I pointed out about the favorite in a similar race on Monday, who flopped, do you think when Zayat paid $250K for this one as a yearling he was hoping for a turf sprinter? Plus, these connections are massively overbet in 2YO races, and why would you want a favorite in these kind of crapshoots as well?

Then, you two also went to Todd Pletcher and Linda Rice's firsters. Congrats. You found the other two overbet horses too. Todd vastly underperforms ( versus his odds ) in these situations for what it's worth.

I was wrong, however, as Sweet Groom was one of my four. Like Steve, I'm partial to the Very Un Stable. It's the greatest name.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me also add that Dougie is a terrible guppy-like play in a race like this. As I pointed out about the favorite in a similar race on Monday, who flopped, do you think when Zayat paid $250K for this one as a yearling he was hoping for a turf sprinter? Plus, these connections are massively overbet in 2YO races, and why would you want a favorite in these kind of crapshoots as well?

Then, you two also went to Todd Pletcher and Linda Rice's firsters. Congrats. You found the other two overbet horses too. Todd vastly underperforms ( versus his odds ) in these situations for what it's worth.

I was wrong, however, as Sweet Groom was one of my four. Like Steve, I'm partial to the Very Un Stable. It's the greatest name.

I totally agree with Andy that the obvious horses are too.. obvious. Would love to see one or more of them drop out of this later today. Saratoga Steve (12-1), Western Fable (6-1) and Mr. Peterson (12-1) were the more "clever" horses that I was looking at for this... But as I said on radio last night, P6 tickets shouldn't go in until you've had a chance to evaluate the odds board.

And speaking of Very Un Stable, I cannot in my memory recall Joe Gioia starting horses with anyone but Del Carroll.

[blackthroatedwind]

The sad thing about these races as even the betting isn't a big help.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sad thing about these races as even the betting isn't a big help.

I agree, we can see who will get bet. Now, if Leo or Cedano get bet early and often, I will take pause.

Maybe I'm not following the posts properly through my early morning fog, but my version of the Form has the Owner of Sweet Groom listed as Guillermo Berrios. I don't see Very Un Stable in the race.

I'll go back an re-read, maybe you moved on to a different race on me.

[Bigsmc]

Speaking of connections....

Do you think Her Majesty the Queen has her Owners License up to date with The State?

Your Majesty, we'll need to finger print and please sign here stating you haven't committed a felony or been ruled off the grounds of any racing jurisdiciton. Don't worry, that ink comes right off.

[philcski]

I find it entertaining you guys are arguing over an utterly impossible race. 12 NYB 2YO's with a grand total of 4 starts combined.

I think at least 6 spots must be covered here in the pick 6, and I wouldn't even feel comfortable about advancing.

[philcski]

As an aside about the ML favorite, Zayat clearly doesn't spend his money well. I would put no stock into the sticker price there... the dam was a miserable 0-4, never even hitting the board despite AWESOME pedigree, especially for a NYB (out of the excellent G1 winner Antespend, so a half to Seeking the Ante and Friends Lake), and her 2005 foal still hasn't started.

The works are highly mediocre as well, I feel pretty comfortable standing against this one.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I find it entertaining you guys are arguing over an utterly impossible race. 12 NYB 2YO's with a grand total of 4 starts combined.

I think at least 6 spots must be covered here in the pick 6, and I wouldn't even feel comfortable about advancing.

That's exactly my point.....Joey said he felt comfortable with four stabs in an impossible race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's exactly my point.....Joey said he felt comfortable with four stabs in an impossible race.

I suppose part of "feeling comfortable" is how you approach pick 4's and pick 6's. Saturday's fifth was a similar type tossup race, and I had the post time favorite as a "B" (which ticket died when Unbridled's Heart lost- in retrospect, whether or not I was right or wrong to not use the favorite in the last leg as an "A" is debatable). He aired and I missed on a $1250 pick 4. I'm willing to accept that I had an opinion against him at that price, turn the page and move on, however I guess some aren't so willing to leave out horses like Dougie.

[Bigsmc]

I agree with Pleasant Song. She will be on my P4 ticket, Venetian Causeway will not be on that ticket. It may be a mistake, but I think she is showing signs of becoming a career maiden with nice figs.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I loved the highlighted part. Stick to the tough guy routine....it suits you much better.

What the hell are you talking about?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought Pleasant Song was pretty interesting in the 3rd. Obviously Kapanga is going to be very tough, and Onoitsmymotherinlaw should improve and maybe Kiaran has put the Mig on a winner. But Pleasant Song's dam was quite good on the turf and she might be able to work out a nice trip on the stretch out. I want no part of the Frankel.

Her dam was a pretty damn good turfer (think she held the course record at Kentucky Downs for a while, also won the Ballston Spa). Love the two sprints to a route, even though both starts were pretty mediocre.

I can't leave out the Frankel, though. Seems like she should move forward again, and that should be enough to win.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Her dam was a pretty damn good turfer (think she held the course record at Kentucky Downs for a while, also won the Ballston Spa). Love the two sprints to a route, even though both starts were pretty mediocre.

I can't leave out the Frankel, though. Seems like she should move forward again, and that should be enough to win.

Not a great sign that she cost $2.7 million as a yearling and didn't make it to the track until three years later, but I guess she wouldn't have to be a monster to win this race.

I agree about Pleasant Song being interesting.