Whitney Day Stakes

[zippyneedsawin]

Saratoga - July 26th, 2008 - Race 7
Diana S. - Grade: 1
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:12 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex: Fillies and Mares
Purse: $500,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles
Surface: Turf
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Bit of Whimsy (KY) 4 Filly 120 Eibar Coa
2 Dynaforce (KY) 5 Mare 118 Kent J. Desormeaux
3 Bayou's Lassie (FL) 5 Mare 118 Robby Albarado
4 Wait a While (KY) 5 Mare 120 Rafael Bejarano
5 Vacare (KY) 5 Mare 118 Edgar S. Prado
6 Criminologist (KY) 5 Mare 118 John R. Velazquez
7 Rutherienne (KY) 4 Filly 120 Garrett K. Gomez
8 Forever Together (KY) 4 Filly 118 Julien R. Leparoux
9 Chestoria (NY) 4 Filly 118 Cornelio H. Velasquez
10 Lady Digby (KY) 4 Filly 118 Ramon A. Dominguez


Saratoga - July 26th, 2008 - Race 8
Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:43 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $250,000
Distance: Six Furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Thor's Echo (CA) 6 Gelding 118 Corey S. Nakatani
2 First Defence (KY) 4 Colt 116 Javier Castellano
3 Black Seventeen (FL) 4 Colt 116 Aaron T. Gryder
4 Sammarco (KY) 4 Gelding 112 Channing Hill
5 Abraaj (KY) 5 Horse 115 Alan Garcia
6 Bustin Stones (NY) 4 Colt 118 Edgar S. Prado
7 E Z Warrior (KY) 4 Colt 115 Kent J. Desormeaux


Saratoga - July 26th, 2008 - Race 9
Go for Wand H. - Grade: 1
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:15 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex: Fillies and Mares
Purse: $250,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Ginger Punch (FL) 5 Mare 124 Rafael Bejarano
2 Inside Passage (KY) 4 Filly 113 Eibar Coa
3 Indescribable (KY) 4 Filly 115 Kent J. Desormeaux
4 Moon Catcher (MD) 4 Filly 115 Edgar S. Prado
5 Copper State (IL) 4 Filly 114 Shaun Bridgmohan
6 Runway Rosie (KY) 4 Filly 114 Rajiv Maragh
7 Over Under (KY) 4 Filly 113 Robby Albarado
8 Spring Waltz (KY) 5 Mare 117 Javier Castellano


Saratoga - July 26th, 2008 - Race 10
Whitney H. - Grade: 1
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:46 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $750,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Commentator (NY) 7 Gelding 120 John R. Velazquez
2 Solar Flare (ARG) 4 Colt 115 Gabriel Saez
3 Notional (CA) 4 Colt 116 Edgar S. Prado
4 Cowtown Cat (KY) 4 Colt 114 Rafael Bejarano
5 Merchant Marine (KY) 4 Gelding 113 Rajiv Maragh
6 Tasteyville (KY) 5 Gelding 115 Michael J. Luzzi
7 Rising Moon (KY) 5 Horse 115 Cornelio H. Velasquez
8 Grasshopper (KY) 4 Colt 116 Robby Albarado
9 A. P. Arrow (KY) 6 Horse 116 Ramon A. Dominguez
10 Student Council (KY) 6 Horse 117 Shaun Bridgmohan
11 Timber Reserve (KY) 4 Colt 115 Javier Castellano

[zippyneedsawin]

Any hope this card stays fairly intact and doesn't get destroyed by weather?

[Bobby Fischer]

i notice they have 8,10&11 entries for Grade1s!

Is NYRA sure they can handle the logistics nightmare? THis is way more than 4 horses entered, there could be quite a bit of money in the pools offering good betting races. Is this something we are prepared for?

[King Glorious]

I think this Whitney field might actually be the best field in this division this year East of the Mississippi. Not saying it's a particularly great field but deepest of anything they've had this year and although not great, not too bad. At least it's interesting. How will Commentator do in his return to routing? I think this is a better game for him than sprints are. Was Notional's return to dirt really the key to his return to showing the potential he showed early in his career? Student Council, for all the ribbing he takes (and a lot comes from me), is still among the better horses in his division. Whether that is a result of the pathetic state of the division or not is irrelevant really. He's still among the best in it. Grasshopper is not too far off of that either. Timber Reserve is one that I had high hopes for following the Penn Derby and I haven't given up on him yet. So for me, the race is at least interesting which is much more than I can say about any other race in the division this year. I'm looking for a Commentator/Notional exacta.

[SentToStud]

I like Notional a lot in the Whitney. Aside from the runnerup, he didn't beat much in NJ but I think Gotcha Gold is a very decent miler and Notional had him beat after 5 furlongs. Notional's questionable at 9F but he's run well on dirt everywhere and I think he's going to get a very good trip.

Got to play against Commentator at 3/2 or so going 9F, I do not think much of Grasshopper and less of AP Arrow, both of which should take more than what I think is their fair share of betting.

If Student Council, Rising Moon or Solar Flare beat me and I don't run 2nd to one of them, I'll be ripping them.

Notional at 5-1+.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I like Notional a lot in the Whitney. Aside from the runnerup, he didn't beat much in NJ but I think Gotcha Gold is a very decent miler and Notional had him beat after 5 furlongs. Notional's questionable at 9F but he's run well on dirt everywhere and I think he's going to get a very good trip.

Got to play against Commentator at 3/2 or so going 9F, I do not think much of Grasshopper and less of AP Arrow, both of which should take more than what I think is their fair share of betting.

If Student Council, Rising Moon or Solar Flare beat me and I don't run 2nd to one of them, I'll be ripping them.

Notional at 5-1+.

One question that I always wonder of people is what I'll ask you here. I can understand you playing against Commentator wagering wise because of his odds but what if he was 20/1? Would you play him then? The wagering position is one thing but what do you actually think of his chances of winning the race?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question that I always wonder of people is what I'll ask you here. I can understand you playing against Commentator wagering wise because of his odds but what if he was 20/1? Would you play him then? The wagering position is one thing but what do you actually think of his chances of winning the race?

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.

I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.

I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.

Tasteyville becomes the key to this race. If the connections of Tasteyville decide to send him, it will be suicide for both him and commentator. If they decide to rate, i think commentator gets home.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.

I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.

Well of course he's run 9F three times. And the three Dutrow horses beat him there. His race against St Liam was phenomenal as well. But how can you bring those two up without mentioning his very poor race in the '05 Bob's Hope when he went 2 turns off a 5 win sprint streak?

I don't know why they haven't run him long either. But at such a short price, I can't just assume it is for good reasons. Also, I don't disagree with what you wrote. But he hasn't tried long in 3 years and he may well have gotten beat by Lord Snowden if either the Met was a bit longer or if Lord Snowden had gotten a bit softer trip. I can't get away from those two factors.

[lemoncrush]

Where is Circular Quay?
Is he still nursing a minor injury?
I expected to see him running in some of these weak stakes races in the older handicap division.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Where is Circular Quay?
Is he still nursing a minor injury?
I expected to see him running in some of these weak stakes races in the older handicap division.

Apparently, Cowtown Cat is a better fit for this race. At least Pletcher didn't enter Sam P.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Apparently, Cowtown Cat is a better fit for this race. At least Pletcher didn't enter Sam P.

CQ is recovering from a sinus infection.. he probably missed too much training time to make this race.

[miraja2]

I haven't been able to dust this one off in awhile, but I gurarantee right now that Cowtown Cat will finish in EXACTLY ninth place.

[Bobby Fischer]

Student Council/Rising Moon

Student Council appears to be the best in the race, but Rising Moon is really a big monster. Rising Moon could turn into the classic distance horse of 2008, and it wouldn't be a shock.

Hard to know how good Solar Flare is.
Really a deep race, with a ton of horses you can make a case for.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

commentator is 7 nica please

[Bobby Fischer]

2nd look

- The more I look at it, the two 9furlong Main track races (Whitney/GoforWand) give a few lengths edge to those horses who can establish position entering the first turn. OR they punish sluggish horses with outside post positions.

Commentator, Solar Flare, Notional, Cowtown Cat, Tasteyville, and maybe Merchent Marine should get pretty good trips. -Not the group of horses I would pick the winner from. If I had to, I would say Solar Flare and Notional have the best shot at winning out of this group.
Maybe my exacta conatains those 2 with Student Council/Rising Moon...

In the Go for Wand Ginger Punch is not only the best, but she gets the best of the track.

[miraja2]

Every year the Whitney makes me think of the 1999 Victory Gallop-Behrens matchup in that race.
It has to be one of my favorite races in the last decade.
For those who may have forgotten: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf7UIKALfM8

[Gander]

Solar Flare is really tough for me to bet on after his hang job in the Suburban. Hard to envision him getting by a horse like Commentator if he couldnt get by Frost Giant with a perfect trip. I think Commentator at 7/5 is better "value" than Solar Flare at 6/1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

(emphasis added)

Very sharp stuff, STS.

--Dunbar