Derby Day Forecast

[Zippy Chippy]

It looks like the forecast for Derby Day will be thunderstorms and rain during the very early morning, with a chance of showers throughout the day. I haven't seen too many people talking about how an off-track will affect their handicapping. I would be interested in hearing peoples' opinions about the field if the track is muddy or good.

[Cajungator26]

Isn't Smooth Air the only horse out of this bunch to win in the slop? Honestly, I can't remember ... I need to look at the PP's.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Isn't Smooth Air the only horse out of this bunch to win in the slop? Honestly, I can't remember ... I need to look at the PP's.

I think Visionaire won at Aqueduct in the slop.

Pyro has the best speed rating in the slop, BC Juvenile - 109

Visionaire gets a SR of 100 in the slop and
Smooth Air gets a 99

Tale of Ekati also ran in the BC Juvenile and got a 94 BRIS speed rating

I don't think the slop will hurt Big Brown at all

he would probably move up being sired by Boundary

lol I just looked at the comment line for Big Brown's Fla Derby win
"drew away, Greenly"

[Bobby Fischer]

siphons run pretty good in the slop, although Z isn't the typical early speed from that sire.

recapturetheglory wouldn't mind a sloppy track at all.

Big Brown is probably going out front, so he wouldn't mind the slop too much as well

maybe a "good" track is more likely than sloppy or muddy

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

siphons run pretty good in the slop, although Z isn't the typical early speed from that sire.

recapturetheglory wouldn't mind a sloppy track at all.

Big Brown is probably going out front, so he wouldn't mind the slop too much as well

maybe a "good" track is more likely than sloppy or muddy

hmmm... Z Fortune did break his maiden on a "good" track

it was just that my sheet claims that Siphon only has 9% mud blood

ok, not cancelling my bet no matter what

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

hmmm... Z Fortune did break his maiden on a "good" track

it was just that my sheet claims that Siphon only has 9% mud blood

ok, not cancelling my bet no matter what

I could be wrong. Going from personal pattern recognition not stats here. It seems like I have seen a bunch of siphons who are early speed thrive on the mud. off the top of my head= Siphon City, the ones trained by Ladernsia(sp?) etc... but i don't have any stats here.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Zippy Chippy

It looks like the forecast for Derby Day will be thunderstorms and rain during the very early morning, with a chance of showers throughout the day. I haven't seen too many people talking about how an off-track will affect their handicapping. I would be interested in hearing peoples' opinions about the field if the track is muddy or good.

I was thinking that same thing. Heard on Steve's show that the track drains really well so the slop really isn't a big deal. unless they get a constant down pour.

but... if it is off I am tossing Z Fortune.

[Cajungator26]

OK, so glancing over the PP's, Smooth Air, Visionaire and Denis of Cork have all won over a sloppy track.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Zippy Chippy

It looks like the forecast for Derby Day will be thunderstorms and rain during the very early morning, with a chance of showers throughout the day. I haven't seen too many people talking about how an off-track will affect their handicapping. I would be interested in hearing peoples' opinions about the field if the track is muddy or good.

Rain or shine we are going to throw money at the worst betting race of the year.

Young horses being asked to go longer than they have yet to race.

A 20 horse field( which is really crazy ).

You think the threat of rain is going to stop us for betting this race?