Kentucky Oaks/Derby Analysis & Selections

[Bogey]

Churchill Downs - Oaks/Derby Double
Fri - Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Oaks

#1 Golden Doc A - Cali filly has been solid this year and fired a bullet at CD.
#2 Absolutely Cindy - Kinmon homebred has been useful as a turfer, but her lone dirt try was a disaster. She did beat the boys in the Battagilia at Turfway Park.
#3 Awesome Chic - Florida Oaks winner really improved going two turns and is capable with another step forward.
#4 Elusive Lady - Will show some early speed, but hard to imagine she'll be around late.
#5 Rasierra - With only a maiden win to her credit, I'm leaning elsewhere.
#6 Country Star - Frankel has been high on her since the beginning with good reason. Two time G1 winner has a ton of talent. Look for her to find her best stride late.
#7 Little Belle - Looking for 4th consecutive victory for Godolphin. Would not be a surprise.
#8 Proud Spell - Diminutive filly has a similar racing record to Pyro, which includes two solid efforts in the Big Easy before a bad start dud at KEE.
#9 A to the Croft - McPeek taking a shot after she failed at odds on in an allowance at KEE.
#10 Bsharpsonata - Brings sharp record and backers will get another decent price.
#11 Pure Clan - Big Brown gang looking for a memorable weekend. She'll be rolling late and finding the winner's circle

Top 5

#11 Pure Clan
#8 Proud Spell
#6 County Star
#3 Awesome Chic
#7 Little Belle

Sat - Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Cool Coal Man - Benefited from perfect set up in the Fountain of Youth at GP from same post, but this is a different animal. Looks like Tarzan, but runs like Jane.
#2 Tale of Ekati - Wood Memorial winner will hope the race falls apart.
#3 Anak Nakal - Has not progressed as a Sophomore and looks a cut below. Pedigree says yes, but seems like Zito is bringing a couple of knives to a gun fight this year.
#4 Court Vision - Making important 3rd start of the year and is training well at the right time. It seems he's sitting on a big one and must be included in all exotics.
#5 Eight Belles - Connections taking a swing with nice filly that looked tired in last and now must go another furlong and a half?
#6 Z Fortune - Strong 2nd in G2 Arkansas Derby, but his latest workout was iffy at best.
#7 Big Truck - Won a weak Tampa Bay Derby and simply seems over-matched here.
#8 Visionaire - Class act, Matz easy to root for. Must bring A game to contend with this bunch.
#9 Pyro - Winchell homebred has the foundation and ability to be a Derby winner. Toss Blue Grass debacle because of the surface. I look for him to be draped with roses.
#10 Colonel John - Tough customer always finds a way of being right there at the wire. Sizzled over the CD strip last Sunday.
#11 Z Humor - Mott expected better this year and takes the hood off.
#12 Smooth Air - Great story and glad to see him in the starting gate. That being said, he's up against it.
#13 Bob Black Jack - Will keep Big Brown company on the front end before packing it in.
#14 Monba - Gutsy victory in the Blue Grass and has an allowance win at CD. Pletcher's best shot this year and should not be ignored.
#15 Adriano - Good looking (Red) son of A.P. Indy is the most well rested participant. Prado had options.
#16 Denis of Cork - Last minute entry looks to capitalize in a big way. Had legitimate excuses in Illinois Derby and has been training lights out at CD. Great value on a very talented runner.
#17 Cowboy Cal - Ran his eye balls out in defeat to stablemate and just seems as a pace factor in this event.
#18 Recapturetheglory - Illinois Derby winner will flash some early speed before he checks out.
#19 Gayego - G2 Arkansas Derby winner proved he can handle the dirt. Dreadful post.
#20 Big Brown - Super confident connections seem to like all the attention. Not worth taking a short price from the parking lot. Pass

Top 5

#9 Pyro
#16 Denis of Cork
#10 Colonel John
#4 Court Vision
#14 Monba

Oaks/Derby Double - 6 8 11 / 9 16

Good Racing Luck

[2Hot4TV]

Pyro has turned into the forgotten contender. He might be 7/1 or higher.

[kgar311]

Weak TB Derby for Big Truck when he defeted the 1-20 champion War Pass???
When he outduled a decent Atoned, Pletcher and Johnny V.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Weak TB Derby for Big Truck when he defeted the 1-20 champion War Pass???
When he outduled a decent Atoned, Pletcher and Johnny V.

Where's Atoned in this field? He's also by Hook and Ladder which makes me think he won't like 10 furlongs.

[cal828]

Bogey. I don't know whether you're right in your analysis or not, although I personally like your top 4 picks, but I love your comments about CCM and Anak Nakal. Made me laugh!!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Weak TB Derby for Big Truck when he defeted the 1-20 champion War Pass???
When he outduled a decent Atoned, Pletcher and Johnny V.

Yep. War Pass had a crazy bad race -- too bad to believe. So it's not like Big Truck gets all this credit for really beating War Pass. He benefitted from the real War Pass not showing up.

And Atoned isn't much, and 'Truck was life and death to beat that guy.

Big Truck seems like a good key in the third spot of the reverse superfecta.

[kgar311]

Atoned was a pretty decent two year old and ran the race of his life there. Im not saying Big Truck is a super horse or anything I just cant agree with the field being "weak" with a champion in the race.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Atoned was a pretty decent two year old and ran the race of his life there. Im not saying Big Truck is a super horse or anything I just cant agree with the field being "weak" with a champion in the race.

I don't think the field was weak, per se.

But after seeing the running of the race, it's as if War Pass weren't even in it. If you take him out of it you've got a field of awful to decent allowance horses.

It wasn't a weak field to begin with, but it's certainly a weak race looking back.

[ArlJim78]

Big Truck has not run anywhere else as well as he did at Tampa. Those were okay races but I'm not convinced that he belongs in this race and expect him to get trounced.

[kgar311]

I can agree with that Brian. But you are wondering were Atoned is now zippy, im not sure but Dennis of Cork sure had a good look at his ass last race. The only clean race Atoned ever had was in the TB Derby so I got to give BT credit for out dueling. They say some horses find trouble in races I think Atoned is one of those horses. 7 out of 9 in the money isnt bad either for being in all that trouble.

[hockey2315]

Oaks Analysis:

With Champion Juvenile Filly Indian Blessing on the DL and stablemate Eight Belles going in the Derby, #8 PROUD SPELL looms a huge threat to crush these if she can bounce back from her 3rd place finish in the G1 Ashland on poly (she will). Florida Oaks winner #3 AWESOME CHIC looked like a new horse in her first two-turn race, drawing off from Elusive Lady and well regarded My Baby Baby. By Awesome Again out of an A.P. Indy mare, she should continue improving with more ground. G1 Winner #1 Golden Doc A is a solid closer who should get up for a piece.

1. Proud Spell 2. Awesome Chic 3. Golden Doc A

Derby Analysis:

#16 DENIS OF CORK has been outworking all of his rivals this week at Churchill Downs and broke his maiden here impressively. Should sit a nice trip and run them all down in the stretch. #9 PYRO was on top of most Derby lists all season until he threw in a clunker on the polytrack at Keeneland and Big Brown and Colonel John stepped up with impressive performances to steal the spotlight. Draw a line through his non-effort in the Bluegrass and be thankful for the better price. #1 COOL COAL MAN has been flying under the radar despite a very nice Fountain of Youth win at Gulfstream. He's 2-for-2 on dirt at 9F this year, should have no problem with the added distance, has a win at Churchill, and has speed from the rail. At upwards of 30-1, he's a must use.

1. Denis of Cork 2. Pyro 3. Cool Coal Man

$100 Oaks/Derby Double Play:

$20 DD 8 w/ 9,16 = $40
$10 DD 8 w/ 1 = $10
$10 DD 1,3 w/ 9,16 = $40
$5 DD 1,3 w/ 1 = $10

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Oaks Analysis:

With Champion Juvenile Filly Indian Blessing on the DL and stablemate Eight Belles going in the Derby, #8 PROUD SPELL looms a huge threat to crush these if she can bounce back from her 3rd place finish in the G1 Ashland on poly (she will). Florida Oaks winner #3 AWESOME CHIC looked like a new horse in her first two-turn race, drawing off from Elusive Lady and well regarded My Baby Baby. By Awesome Again out of an A.P. Indy mare, she should continue improving with more ground. G1 Winner #1 Golden Doc A is a solid closer who should get up for a piece.

1. Proud Spell 2. Awesome Chic 3. Golden Doc A

Derby Analysis:

#16 DENIS OF CORK has been outworking all of his rivals this week at Churchill Downs and broke his maiden here impressively. Should sit a nice trip and run them all down in the stretch. #9 PYRO was on top of most Derby lists all season until he threw in a clunker on the polytrack at Keeneland and Big Brown and Colonel John stepped up with impressive performances to steal the spotlight. Draw a line through his non-effort in the Bluegrass and be thankful for the better price. #1 COOL COAL MAN has been flying under the radar despite a very nice Fountain of Youth win at Gulfstream. He's 2-for-2 on dirt at 9F this year, should have no problem with the added distance, has a win at Churchill, and has speed from the rail. At upwards of 30-1, he's a must use.

1. Denis of Cork 2. Pyro 3. Cool Coal Man

$100 Oaks/Derby Double Play:

$20 DD 8 w/ 9,16 = $40
$10 DD 8 w/ 1 = $10
$10 DD 1,3 w/ 9,16 = $40
$5 DD 1,3 w/ 1 = $10

Dude nothing corney about this, it actually looks professional, except Cork has no shot.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Dude nothing corney about this, it actually looks professional, except Coal Man has no shot.

FTFY

[kgar311]

My Derby analysis:

#9 PYRO absolutely hated the poly going in Bluegrass besides that has the best kick and most consistant during spring campaign, working excellent. #6 Z FORTUNE will be forwardly place and will save ground on both turns, will collar Big Brown mid stretch only to be passed by pyro at the wire. #20 BIG BROWN once he finally strikes the lead after a 22,45 half he will have put the pretenders away but will have paid the price and will be leg weary the final 1/8 but has enough talent to hold off the rest. #10 COLONEL JOHN will make a huge move swing 6-7 wide into the stretch but will have found trouble getting to that point flattens out the final 1/8. #13 BOB BLACK JACK will be right inside of John in the stretch but not enough to catch top four.

1. Pyro 2. Z Fortune 3. Big Brown 4. Colonel John 5. Bob Black Jack

[Clip-Clop]

Nice oaks field screams lets get paid$$$$

Golden Doc A with coverage of Proud Spell and Bsharp

and in a potential all Kent Double

A must is Big Brown(just because last years O/D Double was soooo easy and still paid like $64)
but who will really win... Monba or Pyro completing a huge payday with GDA in the Oaks. Now go get paid everyone!! I am going to Vegas. see ya!

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

FTFY

Nice work. Coal Man's two best wins (FOY and Churchill allowance) were with perfect trips.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

Nice work. Coal Man's two best wins (FOY and Churchill allowance) were with perfect trips.

Which he'll get on Saturday on the rail behind the compromised speed . . .

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by kgar311

My Derby analysis:

#9 PYRO absolutely hated the poly going in Bluegrass besides that has the best kick and most consistant during spring campaign, working excellent. #6 Z FORTUNE will be forwardly place and will save ground on both turns, will collar Big Brown mid stretch only to be passed by pyro at the wire. #20 BIG BROWN once he finally strikes the lead after a 22,45 half he will have put the pretenders away but will have paid the price and will be leg weary the final 1/8 but has enough talent to hold off the rest. #10 COLONEL JOHN will make a huge move swing 6-7 wide into the stretch but will have found trouble getting to that point flattens out the final 1/8. #13 BOB BLACK JACK will be right inside of John in the stretch but not enough to catch top four.

1. Pyro 2. Z Fortune 3. Big Brown 4. Colonel John 5. Bob Black Jack

Save yourself a bunch of greif and toss Z Fortune.

[herkhorse]

Bogey, good luck this weekend!

My Derby pics aren't quite ready for prime time, though I'm starting to like your exacta box of Pyro and D of C

As far as the Oaks goes, I'm looking for a price so my pics are 1) Golden Doc and 9) A to the Croft, despite her last looking so bad.

[Lava]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Nice oaks field screams lets get paid$$$$

Golden Doc A with coverage of Proud Spell and Bsharp

and in a potential all Kent Double

A must is Big Brown(just because last years O/D Double was soooo easy and still paid like $64)
but who will really win... Monba or Pyro completing a huge payday with GDA in the Oaks. Now go get paid everyone!! I am going to Vegas. see ya!

I like BSharp alot