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  #1  
Old 07-20-2006, 10:20 AM
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zippyneedsawin zippyneedsawin is offline
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Default Hypothetical Derby- TC Winners

Someone made a mention of how TC winners would do today trying to get through the three races. I figured, why not line them all up in the Derby and see how it shakes out!!


Sir Barton
Gallant Fox
Omaha
War Admiral
Whirlaway
Count Fleet
Assault
Citation
Secretariat
Seattle Slew
Affirmed


How does this race play out? Does War Admiral or Citation get and easy lead or do they burn each other out? Does Big Red just stalk and pounce? Or is there enough pace for Whirlaway to close? Let's see some tri and super bets!!

Here's mine:

Tri:
Secretariat/Citation/Whirlaway

Super:
Secretariat/Citation/Whirlaway/War Admiral


Tri Saver:
Citation, War Admiral/Secretariat, Citation, War Admiral, Whirlaway/ALL
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  #2  
Old 07-20-2006, 10:25 AM
eurobounce
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Someone made a mention of how TC winners would do today trying to get through the three races. I figured, why not line them all up in the Derby and see how it shakes out!!


Sir Barton
Gallant Fox
Omaha
War Admiral
Whirlaway
Count Fleet
Assault
Citation
Secretariat
Seattle Slew
Affirmed


How does this race play out? Does War Admiral or Citation get and easy lead or do they burn each other out? Does Big Red just stalk and pounce? Or is there enough pace for Whirlaway to close? Let's see some tri and super bets!!

Here's mine:

Tri:
Secretariat/Citation/Whirlaway

Super:
Secretariat/Citation/Whirlaway/War Admiral


Tri Saver:
Citation, War Admiral/Secretariat, Citation, War Admiral, Whirlaway/ALL
Mine would be:

Secretariat
War Admiral, Sir Barton, Assault
All
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  #3  
Old 07-20-2006, 10:51 AM
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Secretariat
Citation/MOW/Count Fleet
Citation/MOW/Count Fleet
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  #4  
Old 07-20-2006, 10:53 AM
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Man o' War didn't even run in all three races of the TC series. Sorry, doesn't qualify.

I think you guys are overlooking Affirmed. YOu want a horse with heart, that was a horse with some serious guts.
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  #5  
Old 07-20-2006, 10:54 AM
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And I think it's pretty much universally agreed that Assault was probably the weakest of the 11 TC winners.
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  #6  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
And I think it's pretty much universally agreed that Assault was probably the weakest of the 11 TC winners.
My bad, I naturally include MOW in all such discussions...OK, then:
Secretariat
Citation/Count Fleet
Citation/Count Fleet/Omaha
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  #7  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:07 AM
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If I was betting $100......

$50 to win on Secretariat
$20 exacta - Secratariat/Citation
$20 exacta - Secratariat/Affirmed
$5 trifecta - Sec/Ci/Affirmed
$5 trifecta - Sec/Affirmed/Ci
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  #8  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:17 AM
Betsy Betsy is offline
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Boy, Slew gets no respect on this board......
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  #9  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:28 AM
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I think this race would play out counter-intuitively.

There's loads of speed in the race ... so intuitively you'd look for closers. But ... knowing there's so much speed ... makes everyone leery of a suicidal pace ... so ...

Affirmed goes right out and sets a pace which isn't too taxing ... slower than his :45.3 in 1978 ... say :46.3 ... with Count Fleet and War Admiral close up ... Gallant Fox, Seattle Slew, Omaha, and Sir Barton next ... then Citation, Assault, Secretariat, and Whirlaway.

But as they go down the backstretch ... Secretariat makes a Preakness-like move and goes towards the leaders. Citation and Gallant Fox move with him.

After 6f in 1:10.2 ... Secretariat starts his big turn move and strikes the lead ... Affirmed as always digs back in ... and Citation, Count Fleet, Gallant Fox and War Admiral are right there after a mile in 1:34.3 ... as Seattle Slew and Sir Barton are under drives to keep up ... Omaha and Assault lose position ... and Whirlaway moves from the back.

At the eighth pole ... Secretariat has opened up 4 ... Citation passes Affirmed ... Count Fleet and War Admiral are still together ... as are Seattle Slew and Sir Barton ... as Gallant Fox backs off a bit ... Whirlaway has made up some ground ... and Omaha and Assault are struggling.

They go under the wire in 1:59 flat (NTR) ... with Secretariat winning by 3 1/2 lengths, Citation by 2 1/4 over Affirmed who has 1/2 on War Admiral ... who gets the best of a photo with Sir Barton and Count Fleet ... Whirlaway is another length back passing Seattle Slew and Gallant Fox ... who has 2 on Assault ... with Omaha last ... 13 lengths behind the winner.

Secretariat pays $3.90 ... 2.40 ... 2.10 ... Citation ... $3.60 ... 2.20 ... Affirmed $3.20. The exacta pays $21.40 ... trifecta $85.00.

Secretariat kicks and bucks as the blanket of roses is flung across his withers.
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  #10  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy
Boy, Slew gets no respect on this board......

Actually, I have a ton of respect for Slew, but such a field would not set up well for him imo...when it came to actually ranking the TC winners, here's what I came up with (Numbers in () are overall ranking):
Secretariat (1)
Citation (4)
Count Fleet (10)
War Admiral (14)
Seattle Slew (15)
Affirmed (17)
Gallant Fox (29)
Whirlaway (34)
Assault (42)
Omaha (43)
Sir Barton (50)
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  #11  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
Secretariat pays $3.90 ... 2.40 ... 2.10 ... Citation ... $3.60 ... 2.20 ... Affirmed $3.20. The exacta pays $21.40 ... trifecta $85.00.
Cool I just hit a $50 win bet, a $20 exacta, and a $5 trifecta......I'll take it.
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  #12  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:40 AM
Bold Brooklynite
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Cool I just hit a $50 win bet, a $20 exacta, and a $5 trifecta......I'll take it.
You collect $524.

What was your total wager?

And where are you taking me for dinner?
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  #13  
Old 07-20-2006, 11:57 AM
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I just don't think Omaha or Assault could really hang with this field. That being said, I'm pretty certain Slew would be pressing the lead a lot more closely.

Speaking of Omaha, I never realized how seldomly Gallant Fox actually ran. Only 17 starts back in the late 20's through early 30's. That is Ghostzapper like, 70 years earlier.
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  #14  
Old 07-20-2006, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
I just don't think Omaha or Assault could really hang with this field. That being said, I'm pretty certain Slew would be pressing the lead a lot more closely.

Speaking of Omaha, I never realized how seldomly Gallant Fox actually ran. Only 17 starts back in the late 20's through early 30's. That is Ghostzapper like, 70 years earlier.
Omaha gets little respect but the guy went to England and I believe he won two of four against their best...on the grass! Always there, always gave an honest effort and then some! I would never leave a horse like him out of my exotics...can't see him winning but he'd be running his heart out in the stretch and, given the presumed pace of a race like this, he would certainly be passing a lot of tired ones late. He's the kind of horse you love to back, as was Assault...but I think he was indeed a step behind these!
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  #15  
Old 07-20-2006, 02:39 PM
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Secretariat wins by 10. A four way photo for the minor placings between the normal great horses Affirmed, Slew, Citation, and Count Fleet.
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  #16  
Old 03-18-2008, 12:23 AM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
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sea biscuit
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  #17  
Old 03-18-2008, 12:31 AM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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nice bump
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  #18  
Old 03-18-2008, 12:33 AM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
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joke
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  #19  
Old 03-18-2008, 12:38 AM
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They are all lucky Bid drew the AE for that mythical race
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