Value play

[jpops757]

Most over used term in horseracing. How can a loser have any "value"?

[hockey2315]

Huh?

[jcs11204]

hockey
do you like anything tomorrow ?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Huh?

ditto.

--Dunbar

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over used term in horseracing. How can a loser have any "value"?

Here are a few "over the top" scenarios.

There is a match race. A maiden 5K claimer vs Secretariat. Secretariat is 100-1 odds in the match race. The 5K maiden claimer wins the race. Would you not consider Secretariat in this spot a "value" play despite losing the race? Would you not want $ invested in this wager?

Someone offers you a bet on a coin flip and offers you 2-1 on your wager. You call the flip and lose. Do you not consider that a value wager even though you lost?

IMO the only way to be financially successful in this game is to find value in the wagers and not picking winners.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over used term in horseracing. How can a loser have any "value"?

They aren't losers when you wager on them.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over used term in horseracing. How can a loser have any "value"?

I totally agree. The tote board has one winner and all the rest are losers, except for your exotics. You have to find the other players to go with the 3/5 winner ( when the favorite is the only real runner)to increase the value of your wager.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

Here are a few "over the top" scenarios.

There is a match race. A maiden 5K claimer vs Secretariat. Secretariat is 100-1 odds in the match race. The 5K maiden claimer wins the race. Would you not consider Secretariat in this spot a "value" play despite losing the race? Would you not want $ invested in this wager?

Someone offers you a bet on a coin flip and offers you 2-1 on your wager. You call the flip and lose. Do you not consider that a value wager even though you lost?

IMO the only way to be financially successful in this game is to find value in the wagers and not picking winners.

I agree with your sentiment. But your second example needs further examination. I once turned down 10-1 on a coin flip. It turned out to be the correct decision. See:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...nflipstory.htm

--Dunbar

[sumitas]

ummm, there are place and show bets that pay.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over used term in horseracing. How can a loser have any "value"?

ex post facto thinking.

it lost therefore there was never value in the bet.

if there's a photo finish between a 2/5 favorite and a 10-1, which one do you want your money on?

the photo's not in yet. time to decide.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

ex post facto thinking.

it lost therefore there was never value in the bet.

if there's a photo finish between a 2/5 favorite and a 10-1, which one do you want your money on?

the photo's not in yet. time to decide.

10-1 to place/show.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

ex post facto thinking.

it lost therefore there was never value in the bet.

if there's a photo finish between a 2/5 favorite and a 10-1, which one do you want your money on?

the photo's not in yet. time to decide.

The winner......................

[sumitas]

Then again bettors place huge sums on the fav to show. so they can breathe a sigh of relief here

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

ex post facto thinking.

it lost therefore there was never value in the bet.

if there's a photo finish between a 2/5 favorite and a 10-1, which one do you want your money on?

the photo's not in yet. time to decide.

Exactly. The term "value" applies prior to the running of the race, not after. It's a simple risk/benefit analysis. If the actual risk of your investment is exceeded by the likely return, you make money in the long run.

Two horses in a race. They race ten times. The public odds of the two horses suggest that Horse A will win 7 out of 10 times, Horse B will win 3 out of 10. However, Horse B's actual chance of winning is 4 out of ten, not 3 out of ten. A bet on Horse B has "value".

By betting Horse B in each race, your risk is exceeded by your return. If the return is high enough (i.e., the bet has "value"), you win more money than you lose, even though you'll still lose most of the time (6 out of 10) by betting on Horse B.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

The winner......................

this is as valuable as the guy who takes a stock market chart and points out where you should have bought and sold last year.

[wac]

Ive always looked at that im not that good at picking horses so the ones that i do pick i better have the enternal feeling of "yes those are odds i'll bet at" or "man i like that horse but the odds are too low" Good example this weekends BG i have a future bet on Monba and while i dont think he will win KD i know that the horse has talent and his race in the foy was a mess got cut flipped palate. AFter hearing that he had throat surgery i had a really good feeling about him when his morning line was 15-1 i figured he'd go off about 10-1 but when i saw 8 i thought it was just to low so i passed. Now of course he wins the race but i have NEVER and i mean NEVER cashed a tix on a horse then when i made the bet felt that the odds were to low but just think the horse will win. And believe me i've done it on several occasions. Just a lesson ive learned in the last 5yrs. Sometimes, like Sat it bites me, but overall i think its something that is good that ive learned.I would say that im usually right about passing over something that i think is to low.I mean the best handicappers over time hit what 30%-35% of the time?? I know im no where close to that so i better get the best odds i can.