Tom Fool

[blackthroatedwind]

Excellent race. Most importantly, Anew has zero chance. His performance on Belmont day came in the midst of a monsterous run where Assmussen won with 9 or 18 starters at Belmont where a number of horses ran far better than their pps indicated was possible. Since beginning the suspension the barn has hardly been on fire and Assmussen won, I believe, only one race at Belmont post Belmont Stakes Day. Anew also benefited from being loose on a track that was extremely kind to speed. He also beat a pretty suspect crew that day and meets FAR tougher today while also attempting to stretch out to seven furlongs. I don't believe he'll get the lead from War Front and I wouldn't use him in a superfecta if they had one.

Now, Silver Train can obviously win, but the inside isn't a great post for him positionally, and I still think his wins are somewhat illusionary. He walked on the lead in a nothing field in the Jerome, He got a perfect trip in the BC Sprint and was CLEARLY second best considering Taste of Paradise's trip and he took advantage of a track that was kind to speed in the Met Mile to hold off Sun King, who may be my favorite horse, but he's hardly a world beater. I realize Silver Train has run good races but he is nowhere near as good as his pps indicate at a rough glance. I'll use him but won't fear betting against.

If War Front can establish the lead over Anew, which I think he will as he's faster, he could prove very dangerous. His last race at Gulfstream was terrific. He battled in a suicidal pace and still almost won. And, I think Big Apple Daddy has a chance as well, though not as good a one as War Front, as if the race falls apart he may be the likeliest closer. He seems to have improved in learning to relax.

Good luck....don't fall for Anew. His run is over.