Crist Book - pick6/pick4

pmacdaddy · #1 11-26-2007, 10:36 AM

Read Steven Crist's book "Exotic Betting" over the weekend.

I found it very interesting that the A,B,C,X style play seems much more complex in pick4 play as opposed to pick6 play.

In pick6 the goal is to complete one ticket. As long as you don't screw up and cover something twice, your risk is generally limited to your ability to grade and structure.

The element of weighting ticket $ values in the pick4 play adds a challenging level of complexity IMO. If you complete a sequence but have improperly weighted the $ value of the winning tickets, it seems like you can really screw yourself. I guess that is just a big part of playing that method.

I was also a little surprised that it seems he puts almost no emphasis on an AB ticket in the pick4. Instead, relying on needing at least two A's to cash a winning ticket. Personally, I almost always use A,B on same pick4 tickets and it makes me wonder if I am squandering a lot of $$ there.

I guess makes sense that if two or more of your "A" opinions are wrong in a 4 race sequence, you don't "deserve" to cash. However I can really see myself getting angry missing on an A and 3 B's.

It can also be a matter of how you grade an "A" or "B" as well. If you are stingy with A's and B's, a AB approach is probably OK for a buck. Guess it all depends on the sequence.

Anyway, definitely enjoyed the book.

Oaklawnfan · #2 11-26-2007, 11:00 AM

I certainly enjoyed it too. I found that I had been making some foolish exotic wagers and realized I needed to focus more on pick 3s and 4s. It's a great read for mathmatics in horse race wagering.

SniperSB23 · #3 11-26-2007, 11:47 AM

It's definitely a real good read. The best thing I took away from it wasn't even related to the A-B-C-X wagering. It was the fact that the favorite is in the trifecta 75% of the time and yet is included on 92% of trifecta tickets. Shows how much value there is in getting the favorite out of the tri.

wac · #4 11-26-2007, 02:41 PM

I read the book a while ago and i "played" for fun only a late pick 4 at CD on Sat and got 2A's 2B's but my ticket in real life would have cost like $230 and it paid like $1050 for a dollar which is what i would have had. Thats only like 5/1 on your money and I would like to do a little better then that. It was kinda cool that i would have had the correct sequenece but it just didnt pay that much for that much risk and im a small time player anyway usually $20 a race at max.