Preakness Pace

munster705 · #1 05-15-2007, 05:16 PM

What do you guys see the pace being for the race? I say it will be slower than the Derby was, it looks like High Spun could make every pole a winning one. Other than Lukas' horse, I don't see much competition for him up front.

ninetoone · #2 05-15-2007, 05:17 PM

In a shocking turn of events, Circular Quay goes wire to wire...

NTamm1215 · #3 05-15-2007, 06:23 PM

I think there will absolutely be a ton of pace in the Preakness. Flying First Class has a plethora of early speed and obviously Hard Spun will be very close.

NT

Charismatic1 · #4 05-15-2007, 06:46 PM

The Preakness is always expected to be as fast as the Derby. Aside from '02 where everyone was hell bent on not letting War Emblem get comfortable (a lot of good that did), the pace is never as fast as the Derby. I'll assume a 46 4/5 type of half; possibly a smidgen less.

fpsoxfan · #5 05-15-2007, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I doubt Hard Spun makes the front here unless Flying First Class breaks slow. I also think Curlin is going to show more speed because I think the Derby showed Hard Spun can go out, set fast fractions and stay on. They aren't going to let Hard Spun get an uncontested lead.

Hoss....I couldn't agree more. They'd be nuts to let Spun have his way. The pace in my opinion could be a hair quicker than the Derby.

slotdirt · #6 05-15-2007, 07:27 PM

I remember having a fleeting thought of High Limit wiring the field in 2005 when he went the first half in like 47-ish. Fleeting, mind you.

Danzig · #7 05-15-2007, 07:29 PM

ah, but hard spun doesn't have to have the lead. he may want it, but he has won from just off the pace as well. depends on how willing he'll be to let someone else have it, and lay off, and then win it on the turn like the lane's end.

flying first class is no hard spun--look where the other early runners finished in the derby, and where hard spun finished.

and i think borel may be at home at churchill, but isn't pino at home in maryland? gonna be a good one folks!!

jpops757 · #8 05-15-2007, 11:20 PM

I think the smaller field plays to Curlin and CQ. FFC could cause problems for Hard Spun. Ifeel that Curlin will get the jump on SS and be harder for him to pass. I think with the smaller field they will be strung out more and SS will have a harder tim passing 5-7 horses strung out instead of 5-7 all in one clump. Whoever wins will have to hold off SS. I dont think any of them can pass SS coming down the stretch. The need a earlier kick and hope to hold him off.

Dunbar · #9 05-15-2007, 11:25 PM

CP West is another obstacle to Hard Spun getting lonesome up front.

--Dunbar

ArlJim78 · #10 05-16-2007, 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

CP West is another obstacle to Hard Spun getting lonesome up front.

--Dunbar

Not sure that Hard Spun requires a lonesome on the lead type of trip. In the Lanes End he was comfortable sitting just off the pacesetters and didn't take the lead until turning for home.

lemoncrush · #11 05-16-2007, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Not sure that Hard Spun requires a lonesome on the lead type of trip. In the Lanes End he was comfortable sitting just off the pacesetters and didn't take the lead until turning for home.

That was true, and I agree he can rate.
However, to be fair, the Lane's End was on polytrack and he wasn't facing much. I expect King of the Roxy to mix it up early too, as i don't think he has any chance of getting 1-3/16 from coming off the pace against this group.

_ed_ · #12 05-16-2007, 08:37 AM

King of the Roxy - rabbit for CQ?

ArlJim78 · #13 05-16-2007, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

That was true, and I agree he can rate.
However, to be fair, the Lane's End was on polytrack and he wasn't facing much. I expect King of the Roxy to mix it up early too, as i don't think he has any chance of getting 1-3/16 from coming off the pace against this group.

The Lanes End has been confirmed in my view by the derby result, as being a solid prep. whether Hard Spun faced much that day or not, and whether it was poly or not, he showed he is not a 'must have the lead at all costs' type of runner.

hockey2315 · #14 05-16-2007, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _ed_

King of the Roxy - rabbit for CQ?

No way. . . They've been pointing this horse to the Preakness for a long time now. . . CQ is a new addition. . .

Danzig · #15 05-16-2007, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

No way. . . They've been pointing this horse to the Preakness for a long time now. . . CQ is a new addition. . .

but of course if king of the roxy doesn't hold on due to a fast pace early, then no doubt pletcher is thinking quay can pick up the pieces late.

lemoncrush · #16 05-16-2007, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

but of course if king of the roxy doesn't hold on due to a fast pace early, then no doubt pletcher is thinking quay can pick up the pieces late.

I agree.
King of the Roxy is a nice horse, but if he couldn't hang on going 1-1/8 against the mules that ran in the Santa Anita derby, he has no shot winning at 1-3/16 against much, much better.

#17 05-16-2007, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I agree.
King of the Roxy is a nice horse, but if he couldn't hang on going 1-1/8 against the mules that ran in the Santa Anita derby, he has no shot winning at 1-3/16 against much, much better.

If horses behave as robots this is true. What if they do not??