Gulfstream's Last Month

[SentToStud]

My thoughts on how to make money off it... I'm interested in others comments....

With Keeneland opening and Aqueduct moving to the main next week with turf racing there to soon follow the last 3-4 weeks of Gulfstream is always diluted. The Gulf MSWs and N1Xs will be filled more by people named Collazo, White, Dwoskin, etc,... than by Pletcher, Shug, Clement....

Whenever I come across a Gulfstream April (or even late March) race in PPs I generally discount it greatly vs a 'normal' Gulf race. Sure, Pletcher will win a couple or more races down here in April but when that horse runs back in KY or NY (or wherever) a month later, that race is likely to look better on paper than it really was.

This is very similar, though opposite, to December racing at Calder where the fields are far superior there than at other times during the year, especially on the turf. On balance, I think a mid /late-December Calder turf N1X is tougher than the same class race in April at Gulfstream.

These races are really useful to look back at using charts and old DRF PPs to get a sense of field quality. Formulator is a great tool as well.

I assume all this applies to Fairgrounds closing as well, though to a lesser extent.


good luck...