Admitted Excitement: DWC Day(morning)

Scav · #1 03-26-2007, 06:56 PM

I don't usually get excited too much about races. I am always excited for Million Day, Derby Day and BC Day. Those three, that is it, the other big days, are all the same to me, days where I can either piss away some money or come up with a free paycheck. But I have to admit, I am really looking forward to see the Dubai World Cup this year. I really hope we get to see Discreet Cat and Invasor throw down that long stretch. I also hope they run well so they can't come up with some BS excuse for the media.

Also looking forward to Lava Man dusting English Channel so Kev will finally realize that the horse is mediocore and loves to cost me money.

Anyone know what Gomez isn't on Discreet Cat?

hockey2315 · #2 03-26-2007, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Dettori is the Godolphin stable jock.

You don't think Premium Tap will be with the other two?

Here's how I see each horses chances:

If they raced 100 times:

Discreet Cat would win 35 times

Invasor would win 35 times

Premium Tap would win 25 times

The other 5 races would be won by other horses because of some kind of freak occurences. . .

I think the bet in the race is definitely Premium Tap @ 6-1 or so. . .

Scav · #3 03-26-2007, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Dettori is the Godolphin stable jock.

You don't think Premium Tap will be with the other two?

I actually think he might be your winner, especially because of his non-need of Lasix. My thing is about it is leading up to it. Finally two stars are put up against each other and we get to see it. In the day where their are a bizillion stakes races and can make money with sub-par horses, we get to see this.

As far as the day goes, I love a day like this because the races before there are 16 deep and you can box 5 horses and hope to get lucky. It is alot like my KY Derby bet every year. I can always, with almost certainity be able to toss 7-9 horses right away, so I then eliminate till I am down to 5 and box those 5 for $5 in an exacta. It has become tradition (done it the last 4 years, hit last year for the first time). If I hit it, I know I am making some loot. A day like this fits my style and bankroll real well

Scav · #4 03-26-2007, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Here's how I see each horses chances:

If they raced 100 times:

Discreet Cat would win 35 times

Invasor would win 35 times

Premium Tap would win 25 times

The other 5 races would be won by other horses because of some kind of freak occurences. . .

I think the bet in the race is definitely Premium Tap @ 6-1 or so. . .

Depends on conditions, straight up, no weight, I think Invasor wins more then 35 times. We haven't seen enough of DC to make an opinion, especially given his breeding, this 10 panel race will tell us alot.

blackthroatedwind · #5 03-26-2007, 07:11 PM

I am very suspect of Premium Tap's chances. Frankly, I've seen too many horses improve dramatically in Kentucky, as he seems to have, and not reproduce that form in other places.....especially a place like Dubai. He is an extremely nice horse, he was improving last year, so perhaps he was just a late developer, but personally I am very suspect of his chances this weekend.

Believe me, I hope he does well, not only have I made two scores on him, I would love to see a three horse battle. At the very least, and this is a lot, this is the best showdown we have ever seen in the World Cup and probably in a long time in any big race. It's exciting. I can't wait either.

Scav · #6 03-26-2007, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You and I are very similar in I tend to do better on days like this also. Saturday is great because after Dubai, there is a great day of racing as well, Florida Derby, etc. Keep an eye on Mike DeKock trained horse DWC Day. he's a phenomenal trainer in South Africa and his horses usually run well. I think his Irridesence has a big shot in the Lava- English Channel race.

Not saying I do better, I usually get smoked on these days but I at least give myself an opportunity to do well, unlike most days. Days like this seems to hold my attention to fewer track(s) so I don't get crazy.

Sightseek · #7 03-26-2007, 07:19 PM

I'm wicked excited for this...the whole card rocks.

blackthroatedwind · #8 03-26-2007, 07:23 PM

Looks like Todd didn't have his usual luck of the draw....as he drew inside with Bishop Court Hill in the sprint ( not that he had a chance ) and outside in the turf races ( especially Honey Ryder who has been the recipient of more perfect trips than any horse I have ever seen ).

blackthroatedwind · #9 03-26-2007, 07:30 PM

I will have to wait for pps.

outofthebox · #10 03-26-2007, 07:34 PM

Im really excited about the DWC too. Just wished i had confidence that Discreet Cat will be 100%for the race. I mean he's at such a big disadvantage fitniss wise, that is unless Godolphin has somehow created training trials at the track like they do for their grass horses. But yea, overall a great day of racing. Cant wait....

hoovesupsideyourhead · #11 03-26-2007, 07:40 PM

collier hill ..again is my bet o the day

Sightseek · #12 03-26-2007, 07:44 PM

I'm most interested in Admire Moon in the Duty Free...his race against Pride was an absolute thriller.

zippyneedsawin · #13 03-26-2007, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Im really excited about the DWC too. Just wished i had confidence that Discreet Cat will be 100%for the race. I mean he's at such a big disadvantage fitniss wise, that is unless Godolphin has somehow created training trials at the track like they do for their grass horses. But yea, overall a great day of racing. Cant wait....

That's the biggest reason why I think Invasor will win this.

miraja2 · #14 03-26-2007, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

That's the biggest reason why I think Invasor will win this.

I certainly can't argue with anyone that likes Invasor's chances, but I think Discreet Cat also has a HUGE chance here. They have treated this horse with kid-gloves his entire career, so I don't think they would run him here if they didn't think he was 100%.
As for coming off a long layoff, he has done that effectively before.
I know some people question his ability to get 10f, but that has never made much sense to me given how he looked going 9f in the UAE Derby last year, and the fact that his dam was a G1 winner going 10f.
Invasor is a great horse, and I wouldn't be at all shcoked if he won it, but given how the two horses ran over this surface last year, I think I would give the slight edge to DC at this point.

#15 03-26-2007, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

That's the biggest reason why I think Invasor will win this.

I agree. The horse has turned into a monster. We know he can win being shipped and off a while. Total pro. He is a mature master of the craft.

Do you guys really think Lava Man can do it on the turf? I would love to see him win, but what about all the "true" turf types from elsewhere?

Scav · #16 03-26-2007, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

I agree. The horse has turned into a monster. We know he can win being shipped and off a while. Total pro. He is a mature master of the craft.

Do you guys really think Lava Man can do it on the turf? I would love to see him win, but what about all the "true" turf types from elsewhere?

To quote Andy, "I DON'T CARE WHAT THEIR BREEDING IS"

miraja2 · #17 03-26-2007, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

I agree. The horse has turned into a monster. We know he can win being shipped and off a while. Total pro. He is a mature master of the craft.

Do you guys really think Lava Man can do it on the turf? I would love to see him win, but what about all the "true" turf types from elsewhere?

No I don't. The rule is, The only thing more idiotic than betting against Lava Man in California is betting on him anywhere else in the world.
I think shipping him to this race was a big mistake. I hope he wins, but I don't like his chances at all.

zippyneedsawin · #18 03-26-2007, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Do you guys really think Lava Man can do it on the turf? I would love to see him win, but what about all the "true" turf types from elsewhere?

as much as I like Lava Man, I'd be surprised if he won.

#19 03-26-2007, 09:02 PM

Duty Free
10 Admire Moon 9/2
13 Daiwa Major 5/1
5 Lava Man 7/1
12 Miesque's Approval 8/1
11 English Channel 9/1
3 Stormy River 10/1
2 Best Name 12/1
7 Kapil 14/1
8 Pompeii Ruler 14/1
14 Formal Decree 16/1
16 Linngari 16/1
4 Irridescence 18/1
15 Bad Girl Runs 20/1
1 Seihali 20/1
9 Flashy Wings 25/1 (I like!!)
6 Mystical 33/1

The odds from our traveling poster (brockguy) from some book. They got him as a 3rd choice in what looks like a tossup race from these numbers. How is this? They think this many US dollars come in, or they really think Lava man has a chance. The I like is not mine.

miraja2 · #20 03-26-2007, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Duty Free
10 Admire Moon 9/2
13 Daiwa Major 5/1
5 Lava Man 7/1
12 Miesque's Approval 8/1
11 English Channel 9/1
3 Stormy River 10/1
2 Best Name 12/1
7 Kapil 14/1
8 Pompeii Ruler 14/1
14 Formal Decree 16/1
16 Linngari 16/1
4 Irridescence 18/1
15 Bad Girl Runs 20/1
1 Seihali 20/1
9 Flashy Wings 25/1 (I like!!)
6 Mystical 33/1

The odds from our traveling poster (brockguy) from some book. They got him as a 3rd choice in what looks like a tossup race from these numbers. How is this? They think this many US dollars come in, or they really think Lava man has a chance. The I like is not mine.

I am not saying that I think English Channel will win, but to me, 7/1 on Lava Man and 9/1 on EC makes no sense whatsoever. EC has a MUCH better shot here than Lava Man.